The science of cyclones

Chari Mercier, St. Petersburg, FL — Wed, 07 May 2008 03:12:44 GMT

Cyclone Nargis has really shown how inept and incompetent the Burmese military government is when it comes to caring for and helping the Burmese people after this storm hit. I don't even recognize the name "Myanmar"; I've known this country to be named BURMA since I was in grade school. It looks apparent to me that the military government only thinks of themselves and don't even care about the lives of the people that have been hit so hard. The devastation that Nargis left behind is just horrible, probably on the same level as the Dec., 2004 tsunami. The other concern is that when the international aid does start to come in, I'm afraid that the military government will take that over and keep it all for themselves, leaving the homeless, starving Burmese people without anything to survive with. That is how shallow, callous, inhumane, insensitive, shelfish, inept, incompetent, and murderous this government is towards the people. Look at what they did after the protests for democracy earlier this year! Can anyone from the US, Europe, Australia, and some of the more democratic Asian countries trust them with anything? I think not! I feel that this will be a good time as any to get this military government out of power and begin to bring in a leader that will help the people of Burma, and bring in the democracy that will mean freedom and stability for Burma. Also, there needs to be a total upgrade in the cyclone/hurricane warning systems in that area on the same level as the bouy warning systems that were installed in the Indian Ocean after the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami. Bangladesh and a large part of the east coast of India are also susceptable to these major cyclones in the cat 3-5 range because of the low lying deltas and coastlines in that area. Plus, Nargis was an early preseason cyclone since the hurricane season in that area usually starts in May and runs thru November. Based from what I just seen and read so far, it looks like that part of the hurricane belt will be seeing a very active cyclone season this year. Malaysia, southern Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore are also in the paths of these cyclones, and if they have learned anything from Nargis, it's to get their people ready to evacuate and get prepared for these storms before they hit. Saving lives of people should be priority no. 1 for these countries that are in that zone. Buildings can be rebuilt, other property can be bought, but people's lives cannot be replaced. That's where the Burmese military government is wrong and sadly lacking in compassion! Loosing nearly 40,000 people from this cat 4 storm should've better be a huge wake up call for them right now! I hope and pray that the Burmese people will begin to rise up and start forcing this military government out of power. This government has been in power way too long and have lost their way! People of Burma need to start being empowered and say NO to this government's brutality and hostility towards them! Nargis has shown the true colors of this Burmese government!!
Chari Mercier :(
St. Pete, FL
PS: I live in hurricane territory--Florida! So, hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones mean the same thing to me. They form and develop in the same way whether they are in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans!

The science of cyclones

Wayne in Kansas City, MO — Wed, 07 May 2008 06:01:25 GMT

What's most sad is that this won't be the last time that this occurs. When so many of these killer storms are hitting the same region over and over again, why is the international community sending in aid AFTER they hit? I mean, there is outrage over genocide in Darfur or other regions of the world, but doesn't the government in this region's LACK of action amount to about the same thing, or at least the same results?

The science of cyclones

Lawrence Frazer, Vancleave, Ms — Wed, 07 May 2008 10:06:37 GMT

I live on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and we too were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. I take umbrage with the authors blame on President Bush for failure after the storm. Louisiana's problem post storm had more to do with an incompetent Governor and Legislature than the President, a lot more, Not to mention the mentality of New Orleanians. Mississippi is recovering much faster. Mostly due to a very proactive Governor and Legislature and the "can do" attitude of our citizens.

The science of cyclones

Bob Burk — Wed, 07 May 2008 12:25:53 GMT

Global Warming as presented by Al Gore and the left is a scam. Mean surface temperatures has been statistically flat for a decade, a recent NASA study shows that mean ocean temperatures has cooled since 2003.

The science of cyclones

kanara preyor southfield mi — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:46:45 GMT

how does the cyclone start?, and do you have to live around a lot of water for it to happen?

The science of cyclones

Jim — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:25:04 GMT

Of course it's global warming. I stubbed my toe yesterday, and I said the same thing.

The science of cyclones

L, Menlo Park, CA — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:55:02 GMT

Bob Burk wrote: "a recent NASA study shows that mean ocean temperatures has cooled since 2003."

I googled for "NASA ocean temperature study" and could not find this study. Many other NASA studies strongly confirm global warming, such as http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20060925/ and http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland_temps.html . Please provide a URL for the study you are referencing.

The science of cyclones

Jeff Singer, New Orleans, LA — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:55:20 GMT

Almost 2000 people died as a result of Katrina. Not a "couple."

"You really have to look at other factors in order to figure out why a storm can hit the United States and only a couple die, and a storm can hit Myanmar and tens of thousands of people die."

The science of cyclones

Brett Hebb — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:01:31 GMT

What does this cyclone that hit Myanmar have to do with Pres Bush or Republicans? Stick to the story here. Unlike Myanmar, our country is designed to allow for local governments to make decisions for themselves, including preparedness and emergency response plans. Why doesn't your article mention anything about the Democratic Mayor or Govenor or that other Democrat who used emergency resources to rescue his belongings from his house? Don't use the deaths of 10,000 plus people to push your political views.

The science of cyclones

Jennifer — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:08:37 GMT

I'm so tired of this global warming stuff! If we were in an ice age just 10,000 years ago, wouldn't that mean the planet has been warming since them? And more importantly, if the plant has ice ages every so often, would that further prove that the climate is either warming or cooling? Probably has more to do with volcanic activity, the sun, or even the passing of a comet every ten or twenty thousand years, than SUVs.

The science of cyclones

Jim Dooris — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:26:48 GMT

Just before the start of the last mini Ice age people blamed the weather on global cooling!

The science of cyclones

TP, Seattle, Wash. — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:29:09 GMT

No Proof. There is no proof to back up global warming as the cause for these events. This is not a movie people. Science works on evidence. So far, I haven't even seen data indicating a correlation, let alone direct evidence !

The science of cyclones

Lori Indiana — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:13:27 GMT

Did you not read the article? The guy isn't blaming global warming, he is saying it has more to do with socio-economic factors.
Please, subject at hand. Thanks.

The science of cyclones

Steve, DC — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:42:22 GMT

What is really sad about this is that Global Warming (now called Climate Change - in case the world cools) is now fairly well disproved and discounted by true climatologists. Even the virtual modelers who originally came up with alarming "warming trends" admit their models are not accurate and do not reflect the true state of affairs. Any journalist worth their salt would research and realize this - yet MSNBC continues to peddle this farce.

The science of cyclones

B Chambers Long Island — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:45:10 GMT

The tendency to attribute anything bad that happens on the planet (including reduced revenue from motion pictures - really) on global warming risks trivializing real climate issues. Such as whether global warming is really the problem were are being "scared" with, or if there is actually a man-made cause. See amoreconvenienttruth.com

The science of cyclones

Joe Schmoe — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:50:04 GMT

Bob, is this what you were referring to?
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2006-112

The science of cyclones

Mikey, Seattle, WA — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:01:31 GMT

Mathematical formulas exist to convert degrees centigrade and ocean surface area, to calories, then to horsepower and watts. It's just math. :)

However, research and development of mechanical apparati (apparatuses?) to convert this power into usable energy has been systematically squished and marginalized over decades by large corporate and government lobbies interested in maintaining the status quo.

Imagine all that power harnessed! What could that do for the energy crisis???

Only now with gas at $4/gal are US people getting serious about alternative energy. Joe Schmoe is going to take the bus, and not fill his tank once a week. Hit em in the pocket book! And we complain about our gas prices, when the Europeans have been paying this rate for years? *shakes head*

The solution to both the global warming problem and the energy crisis is staring us right in the face, and it's not just the burmese government who are indolent and recalcitrant.

Shame on them though for not preparing their populace. Now is not the time for sanctions though...

The science of cyclones

Moris — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:08:41 GMT

Are you joking...These scientist are all fakes..what have you done in 100 years to predict any disaster...you guys failed in psunami, katrina...i did not even hear about Nargis untill people died in 1000's..now blame the burmese government...

You guys are eating tax payers money..why can't you come up with some solid solution than predicting half ways when the storm kills everyone.

You guys are not worth calling scientist..since these prediction thing started..more people have died cos the storms have become more strounger and you guys are always behind these things...

Please don't bother us with ur predictions..it ain;t worth it....people are going to die anyways..

The thing will get worse..but it is something spirtitual that you guys will never understand..you will only get to study the after effects of what happens in sprititual world.

The science of cyclones

Bryan, San Diego/CA — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:14:23 GMT

"Global Warming as presented by Al Gore and the left is a scam. " -Bob Burk

The fact that you label it a scam in the first place reveals your bias. Have you watched Al Gore's presentation? CO2 levels rise, and the temperature rises. Simple as that. And we are now at a time when the CO2 levels have never been higher globally. Just like no one can predict what a cyclone or tornado will do or go, no one will accurately predict what will happen. They can only guess. And the VAST majority of scientific minds monitoring the situation agree that climate change will become a factor in many populations lives. And the effects will be that much more intense as a direct result of CO2 released by human activity.

The idea that APATHY is a more suitable alternative to ACTION and CONSERVATION is not something that should be taught to our children.

The science of cyclones

C L Terry, Franktown, CO — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:42:52 GMT

How does GW Bush take the fall for Katrina preparadness? Feds can't bail everybody out of their own lethargy. The probable effect of a large hurricane on New Orleans was known for years. Seems to me the Governer and Mayor on site are first to be blamed. For instance, scores of parked and abondened city busses while hundreds were stranded in town. I'm no Bush fan, but this sounds like crap from the left. Let's keep the real heat on GW, not make up excuses for others.

The science of cyclones

William, Denver, CO — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:50:15 GMT

It has been cooling for the last 10 years with a precipitous temperature drop in the last 16 months. The 1930's were the warmest period. But, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, says the Wizard of Warming.

The science of cyclones

Bryan, Arlington, TX — Wed, 07 May 2008 19:45:57 GMT

As the author pointed out in the answer to the first question, the destruction that occurred had more to do with political and socioeconomic problems than with global warming. Global warming is a serious problem, but the unprepared (or uninterested) state of the Myanmar government is the true culprit in this catastrophe.
The discussion in this blog should be about what do we do know, instead of debating whether or not global warming is the true cause. So what if it is? Can we not figure out some way to solve global warming? Can we not figure out some way to solve insufficient infastructure? In the past 5 years (and I don't know the exact number) but hundreds of thousands of deaths have occurred from natural disasters, deaths that could have been prevented. If we as a global community would spend more time solving our global problems than debating whether or not it is a problem to begin with, just like in this blog, then imagine the possibilities!
And just so I don't sound like some other hopeless spokesman for peaceful coexistence. Why doesn’t the UN take up a collection from all nations for a global weather monitoring system? One could think that with all the satellites orbiting the world (last count something like 900) we could create some kind of internet site with continuous weather feeds and alerts. Or we could just continue to debate whether or not something like this might actually happen again.

The science of cyclones

M. Gilpin, Iowa — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:03:22 GMT

With the changes occuring, it well may become necessary for people to only live many miles inland (how far in could be determined by scientists). Every huge catastrophe has happened on coastlines. Perhaps nature is telling us to not live right in these very vulnerable areas. A hardship,yes, but no lives would be lost when these storms hit.

The science of cyclones

Cheryl Garner-Hartley — Wed, 07 May 2008 22:09:27 GMT

First of all,the coastal regions are the only feasible locations for alot of industry as well as manufacturing. Secondly, a large portion of our population live and work in these regions. Until science is able to have a consistant projection for what is going to occur in the future, a massive relocation is not something that should be considered.

The science of cyclones

Seagull, San Francisco — Wed, 07 May 2008 22:23:00 GMT

well, the polar and antarctic ice caps melt-that is why ocean temperature drops. But ocean level increases and so flood danger and so other disasters.
Make your own experiment: put termometer in the glass of water and add ice.

The science of cyclones

Randolph scjgyc, Singapore — Thu, 08 May 2008 00:10:39 GMT

There are many factors involved, from global warming to wind directions and the resulting ocean temperatures that precipitate atmospheric build up conducive to natural disasters awaiting to stike the most vulnerable terrains. Social economic conditions, infrastructures and preparedness by the relevant agencies and government contribute only to accentuate or lessen the impact. There is no point finger pointing. When a disaster of this magnitute or scale strikes lets just do whatever we could to alleviate the suffering and or help those people in the country and their government in whatever possible way now and possibly in preventing or 'containing' it in future. There is a proper time for politics but certainly concerted prayers and relief efforts for those adversely affected by the tragedy is more appreciated now.

The science of cyclones

JO, Bloomfield, New Mexico — Thu, 08 May 2008 00:10:54 GMT

Mikey up there in Washington, while I do agree with some of what you said, my only response is this:

This is the United States and I personally don't care what Europeans are, or have been, paying for gas :)

The science of cyclones

Kyle Humberg, San Francisco, CA — Thu, 08 May 2008 00:14:01 GMT

We cannot prevent natural disaster from harming us but we can definitely do something to minimize the damage. In this case of Cyclone Nargis, the death toll of Burmese people is rising because the military junta of Burma is utterly incompetent and selfish. Who in the world needs urging to accept help from people who want to help? Burmese military government. How ridiculous is it.

Stupidly Selfish Burmese Junta – Would you rather stand back and watch your people die than accept help from UN, US, and other countries who offer to help you out of their compassion? Your incompetence and selfishness are beyond belief.

Chari Mercier of St. Petersburg, FL posted a very perceptive comment on May 6, 2008 11:12 PM. I commend Chari for his/her ability to see through the surface and assess what really is causing the trouble for Burmese people. How does the military junta stay in power for this long? They kill or imprison everyone who opposes them. Solution? Send in someone like John Rambo or Gabriel Shear portrayed by John Travolta in Swordfish to help people of Burma overthrow their murderous government. You have to fight fire with fire sometimes. Aung San Suu Kyi has tried peace method and it did not work.

Instead of donating anything that would end up in the corrupted junta, I would rather donate to an organization or someone that would help get rid of the junta for good.

The science of cyclones

Ockham, R. Edmonton, Alberta, Canada — Thu, 08 May 2008 00:36:37 GMT

Political incompetence remains the primary cause of loss of life in these events; even in the tradgey of the Galvenston Hurricane (US Metrological Service failed to pass on warnings from Cuba), bad government will always a larger factor than 'global warming' or any other excuse made up to explain away and shift reponsiblity - than the acutal weather event.

We should wait 100 years - before jumping on the 'global warming' or 'global cooling' or any other climate shift excuse - and look seriously at the calibre of governments in these tragically affected areas.

The science of cyclones

marie. Odessa the desert, TX — Thu, 08 May 2008 01:44:25 GMT

I am insulted that Our President is catagorized as unprepared in the disaster of Katrina. If you will check, as I'm sure you haven't, Pres. Bush called on the Gov of Louisiana and the Mayor of New Orleans to evacuate BEFORE thet hurricane hit. Naigan was the one who finally said OK, we'll mandatory evacuate, but we wont really make you leave. The City and State had resourses to move people who wanted to go. They just never did. AND if they had called on the Gov't BEFORE the storm to help evacuate does any one believe that it wouldn't have been tried??? My stomach sank when we saw the pictures of school busses sitting under water while people were on their rooftops waiting... How can anyone with good reason believe that the city did enough to help themselves. No one is ever prepared for such a disaster, and pray that we have as a nation learned from this to try to help ourselves some. Protest the inactivity from your precinct on up to the President, but take a good look at your own actions. You don't have to be rich to make yourself heard, and you don't have to be well educated. Just do something...

The science of cyclones

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI — Thu, 08 May 2008 02:56:17 GMT

Price of illegal Drugs will go up in the US as this is one of the most prevalent areas for Drug smuggling in the world. Be prepared for a crime wave as the addicts will be looking to increase their funds to purchase.

Everyone should read the book, "Who moved my cheese?" by Spenser Johnson. There are various types of people in the world. People who feed at the pile until it is gone and then wonder "Who Moved my Cheese."; people that will strike out and find alternative sources of food; and those that copy those that find the new sources as they are smart enough to know something is wrong with staying at the pile, but not smart enough to figure out an alternative themselves.
So the people of the Earth in these areas that are prone to storms are no different. New Orleans being no different from Myanmar. There are people (Mayor and Governor included) who woke up one day and said, "Who moved New Orleans? It must have been George Bush's fault. We better take away that old lady's gun. She shouldn't be defending herself. Oh, what do you mean there aren't any more police on duty? Where'd they go? Oh well, is Bourbon street open?"

The science of cyclones

David Wellingt Greenville MS — Thu, 08 May 2008 04:00:26 GMT

I apologise for not reading your book, I am sure you have a good deal of peer reviewed facts to back up your global warming conclusions. I actually quit reading many of these books back in the early '70s when the coing ice age predictions were all the rage (GB under a glacier by 2010 ...). I think this was really forecast back in 2006 when I was in th erice business. Milo Hamilton was telling the trade that $30/cwt rice was coming due to the ongoing strength of the La Nina, and he didn't even write a book to figure that out. As o New Orleans ... I knew it was underwater (at leas the sea level) in 1980 living in Houston. Bush had nothingto dowith that diaster coming, better look at the mayor.

The science of cyclones

Shirley — Thu, 08 May 2008 04:45:57 GMT

Lets get real! Remember the earth is more water than land mass. Ice or not, it is still more water than land mass. Gravity and climate is aways going to be a factor where ever we live. Hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes, thunder storms, heavy rain, snow in the mountains, earthquakes, volcano, droughts and multiple acre fires are becoming to big physically and financially. Pointing fingers, blaming governments in near and far countries are "not" going to stop these types of storms from forming. I advise everyone to keep faith, aways be prepared for the unexpected, survive, and pray for the world. Just my opinion.

The science of cyclones

Bonnie Chambers Lynnwood WA — Thu, 08 May 2008 05:14:29 GMT

Um...this is a "Science" blog correct? I am confused, I started to read this artical because I was not aware that a cyclone hit Burma on the 5th. I picked an interactive medium to try to find the facts not spin. oopse silly me.
What I have got out of this blog so far: An "ignorant" military has murdered 10,000+ people with a natural disaster... some how Bush is involved...Science and technology never came of anything... Jesus has declared a party...the goober and mayor of New Orelans planned a pool party and did not invite Bush and last but not least... People are really pissed off that other people are recycling their garbage and riding the bus because aparently their not spending as much on gas. Is this correct?

Um...ok, So... 10,000+ died in a storm surge??? Can the U.N. place more storm trackers and evacuation sirens, or is it a political: your beach, your problem?

The science of cyclones

J. Thornburg, Wisconsin Rapids, WI — Thu, 08 May 2008 15:59:47 GMT

Message to Seagull in San Francisco: Your little experiment will also show that the water level in the glass will not increase as the ice cube melts.

The science of cyclones

Jim Hopkins, Plainfield, Illinois — Thu, 08 May 2008 17:21:35 GMT

For you naysayers who think global warming is a scam, try a little rational thought, evidence based reasoning and read the latest report (available on line at (http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm) of the International Panel on Climate Change. This panel, consisting of hundreds of experts from dozens of countries around the world have taken into account all the causes of climate change. They are the ones who are studying variations in solar output, the influence of volcanic eruptions, methane clathrates in the ocean floor regions, methane production in cows and permafrost, variations in the earth's orbit, plate tectonics, tree rings, ice core analysis, and sediment in the ocean floor. C02 levels are increasing. Don't try to convince me that each and every one of these experts has his own agenda. That's nonsense. There is an agreement that not only are these warming events happening, they are happening faster than predictions. Study their conclusions and ask yourself this - who are the naysayers? Who is funding these writers? How many of these people are considered experts on climate? How many of them have their work peer reviewed and published in main stream science magazines, articles, etc? The reason they publish their junk in little heard of places, is because their hypotheses are not supported by science, and reputable editors won't publish their invalid conclusions. It is the same logic that the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine don't publish crap on faith healers. This country has risen to greatness partly because of its science and technology. Let's keep supporting real science and stop tolerating pseudo science whether it be channelers, palm readers or astrologers!
Jim Hopkins

The science of cyclones

Christopher, Hendersonville, NC — Fri, 09 May 2008 06:34:38 GMT

"Every huge catastrophe has happened on coastlines. " - M. Gilpin

That is complete and utter nonsense. Do you happen to forget the Oklahoma Tornado outbreak of 99? or any of the suicidally immense outbreaks since? In all cases, we were lucky that most of them did NOT hit huge population centers, and on those that did, were minor. Huge catastrophe's can happen in the interiors as well.

In this particular case, it was horrific, as Katrina was, because the Cyclone hit a Delta Basin, which by nature are low laying, but fertile grounds for farming and other uses. Sociologically, humanity has always gravitated to live closer to bodies of water. Most of the Major cities in the world rest along rivers or lakes. So, sociologically speaking, it's understandable to find a large human mass living in areas prone to flooding like river deltas.

In all seriousness, Katrina was a fluke. What happened shouldn't have happened, but it could, and WOULD have been worse, had our government taken the same steps in PREPARATION as what the Burmese government is.

Truely, there is no comparison. There was a large loss of life due to the inactivity PRIOR to the disaster, where as here, the worst damage to the people affected was due to inactivity AFTER.

No where in any of the facts of either cyclone does the term Global Warming pop up, so please drop that subject. The only thing that GW had to do with it was increase the likelihood of such an event occurring. It would have happened sooner or later anyways.

The science of cyclones

Joe Solati, Danville, California — Fri, 09 May 2008 06:50:38 GMT

Thank God for Jim Hopkins! He had done what most people do not do. He is backing up is option with facts. Not all of us have the time or brains to provide recourses to prove our point. I'm one of those people. Don't always believe what you hear from the media. With the internet we can get FACT about almost anything, as long as if we look in the right place. All the bloggers who don't believe that global warming is happening, need to go to the link Jim provide so you will know the truth.

The science of cyclones

Jessica atworld,Syndey, NSW — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:59:34 GMT

are cyclones a part of global warming?

The science of cyclones

Dana Wilson, Houston, TX — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 20:18:41 GMT

Could some please exspain to me the differance between a cyclone and a huricane. Due to the damage from huricane IKE, Insurace companys attemp to refuse to pay on a claim saying that it was a cyclone. Thank you for any information you have to offer homeowner in Texas.

The science of cyclones

christian kisielewski, rockford, michigan — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:20:59 GMT

Why is predicting these cycles important and how is it done?