Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

RBH — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 23:18:18 GMT

The Iowa market suffers from the problem that one can't short a candidate. As a consequence, one can't trade spreads. The same appears to be true of the Intrade market (site searches on "spreads" and on "short" yield no hits). The inability to trade candidate spreads would have a tendency to increase the vol, I suspect.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Ludy California USA — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:13:58 GMT

I believe in Ms. Hillary R. Clinton because I know that she is very capable in getting the country out of the Chaotic Economy that we're in. I believe that Politicians will say anything that voters will want to hear just to get votes. I cvare for this country not the Political Party. Hillary R. Clinton is more capable, intelligent, and knowledgeable. SHE CAN CREATE THE CHANGE THAT THIS COUNTRY NEEDS! Some don't like her to be a Candidate because she is a woman.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Ed Mora - Perris, California — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:19:46 GMT

Those who read, pay attention, and reason, know that most people do not know what is best for them. Most people base their decisions on charisma (which is unmerited favor); liking someone because of how he looks, moves, talks, smiles, and how he says things (this is emotion - a deadly misleading feeling).

I liked George Bush. I liked what he said, but I never voted for George Bush because I always knew that he would not be any good even though I liked him.

I have been correct 99.99%

I like Mr. Obama, but he is no good! I do not like Ms. Clinton, but she is good. I do like Mr. Huckabee, but he is no good. And, rarely do I like somebody who happens to be good like Mr. McCain, he is good!

But, I'll have to wait and see who else, if anybody, becomes a front runner, thanks to the value most people place on charisma and the importance most people place on emotion.

It is a good thing that the planets, the laws of physics, gravity, etc., do not react to charisma or emotion.

Ed Mora

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

JS Juliana Smith, Raleigh, NC — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:24:07 GMT

Obama will crash because the bottom line is negative equity. He is all talk and no substance. Hillary, McCain and Romney will surpass him. Obama rise is supported by popularity of his 'CHANGE' slogan by representing himself as the new black race. what about American? No black and no white.

We are facing so much changes since the dot com rise and fall. What CHANGE has Obama show? What did he change in the senate? Speech and dream don't bring result or improve the bottom line.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Tony,A — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:54:54 GMT

It is still very early in the game, and as I have learned over many years of observing these campaigns anything can happen on any day to make or break a candidate. I'm with you Ed, I'll wait for the hype and emotions to run their course before deciding.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Leo, Mesa, Arizona — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:05:01 GMT

I will buy Obama because I feel he is going to continue to rise. This man is the inspiration our country has been waiting for. Everywhere he goes, people join in. Politics is about the ability to use your skills to convince people to join in. All great leaders have had that ability. Hillary has not shown that ability and Mr. Barack Obama has. A leader has emerged. GO OBAMA!!!!!!!!!

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Mark Verstraete Bradford, Illinois — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:22:28 GMT

One thing as an Illinois reident I know about Mr. Obama is in much legislation he worked on he could walk across party lines to get legislation moving and passed. When is the last time we saw this in Washington? Now if you look in the Illinois legislature the is a Democratic lock and nothing is getting done because the Democtrats don't agree with each other. The kind of leadership he gave is needed here now. However it is needed more in Washington. That will be a major change you will see in the White House if he is elected!

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Dale Suppappola — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:28:36 GMT

Barack Obama is honerable man. However is he ready to lead this country out of this mess that we are in? I do not think so. He has to pay his dues and learn as everyone else does there is no instant sucess. He is new, young, and raw we need leadership our country cries for it. Maybe in the next election but in this one we have to vote for Hilary she is our only chance at changing the course of this country.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

good neighbour — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:38:21 GMT

ludy, that's just wrong, she is no different than the republicans that broght US to this stage, if you want change that will result in better life for majority of americans than vote Obama, the only change hillary bring is that the power will be in different hands but the benefits will go to the same group of people as always, corporations and the rich ones, smarten up, open you eyes and vote OBAMA, good luck USA

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

scollins, Atlanta, GA — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:55:59 GMT

Do we vote for candidates because of what they can do? A President, Senator, Governor or whatever can only do what they can do. That might sound trite, but it does speak truth. They all speak good intentions, but many good intentions have died on the floor of Congress and other nameless places.

What kind of experience are we looking for? In these days of the "global economy", do we want a President that already has their hands in every global money pot? Obama is a change. He's only been at this for 11 years which means he does not come with the full complement of baggage.

We have given the experienced hardened politicans chance after chance. What have they shown us? Are you better off today than you were 8 years ago? If you have experienced the feeling of going to hell in a handbag, then its time for a real change .. a total makeover.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Rich Packey — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:56:34 GMT

Don't vote for anyone who went to an ivy league school.
They have nothing in common with the average working person other than living on the same planet.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

JMS LAKELAND FL — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:59:19 GMT

HOW ABOUT ASKING GOD WHAT HE THINKS? HE KNOWS THE HEART AND HE ULTIMATELY ALLOWS WHO HE WANTS TO BE IN A POSITION OF AUTHORITY

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

DesertStormVet, IL — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 02:11:26 GMT

Hey JS Julianna Smith, why don't you go to his website and actually read something for once. Why don't read all of the laws that he initiated in Illinois. He has left his record open for you to read unlike Hillary who will not release the proof of her accomplishment's until after the election is OVER! Any open-minded person can see that there is so much more to him and his message than race! It has nothing to do with the fact that he is black [...] You must be looking for that "magic" which will suddenly make all the bad turn to good and not expect anything of the American people. When you're forced to buy expensive health care, which you will not be able to afford, and Hillary enforces penalties on you for not buying it then you can look in the mirror and blame yourself [...]! Maybe you can wait and let her put the country into another war because of her piss-poor judgement which has been very evident over the past year alone. She claim's 35 year's of change but wait until she is forced to actually come up with some sort of proof of it. She can't because it isn't there and open-minded people know this.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Sean, Lansdale, PA — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 02:38:27 GMT

Is it bothering anyone else watching MSNBC's coverage the constant beeping on the set with Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman? Turn the darn beepers and blackberries off, geesh!

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Becky Olson, Monroe, Wash. — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:17:06 GMT

If you are sick and tired of a Republican in the Whitehouse than Obama is the best Dem candidate. Especially if the GOP's candidate is McCain. Hillary is the best get out the vote weapon the GOP has. She also will not win the Independent votes that Obama will. I personally have had enough of the Bush's and Clintons...28 years will just be a continuation of the same old stuff. This country will never move ahead with another Clinton. We will have a continuation of all of the partison bickering. I run into people all the time who pay little attention to politics, however, the one thing that they do know is that they would never vote for Hillary. I want a candidate who can win the general election in November. Hillary's negatives are just too high.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Becky Olson, Monroe, Wash. — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:19:53 GMT

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Tylus Kimber, Los Angeles, CA — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:20:42 GMT

Am I missing something? What does Obama/Clinton political race got to do with science and tech?

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Alan Boyle — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:28:40 GMT

Tylus, I write about this on occasion because of the prediction-market angle. That's what really interests me about all this. Here are some earlier postings about the science of prediction modeling:

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2006/11/02/10624.aspx

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2006/10/30/9434.aspx

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/02/01/48075.aspx

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4046145/#040127a

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/03/22/98973.aspx

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5727486/#040817a

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11205780/#060209a

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11912606/#060322a

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

John Doe, Seattle, Wash — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 04:57:50 GMT

Geez. Looking at the results, I'm thinking this writer got it wrong. Good thing he doesn't handle anyones stock portfolios! HA!

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Alan Boyle — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 06:07:21 GMT

Absolutely, John ... I don't know which I'm worse at, predicting politics or predicting stock-market movements! Although I will note that if you had bought Clinton (or sold Obama) at the time that I wrote what I did, as suggested in the first paragraph, you might have doubled your money. A 100 percent return on investment isn't all that bad. ;-)

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Victoria Smith — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 06:53:54 GMT

57% of the New Hampshire voters were WOMEN? What percentage of those women were women of color? No surprise that Hillary won. Oh well, on to the next state.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

William Lewis, Indianapolis, Indiana — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 08:19:42 GMT

As a Democrat, the events of the last two days in New Hampshire paid eloquent tribute to the fact that in a soft hearted and sentimental country like ours there are very few things that have the power of a woman’s tears.

The embrace by the voters of New Hampshire for Senator Clinton also vindicates a familiar saying here, in southern Indiana, I have heard since I was little kid: “People don’t much care what you know, until they know how much you care”.

Senator Clinton stated that in her victory speech that ‘found her voice’. I think even more than hear her voice, that a majority of the primary voters in New Hampshire saw her soul.

There was courage and resilience for a polished professional woman, a person who had spent her entire life affecting the persona of stoic competence and competitiveness in proving her equal worth and survive in a world of powerful and manipulating men, who, in a moment of time, honestly, willingly and publically-against her training and discipline-to bear her true feelings and real emotions in a coffee shop in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

I remember in the early eighties Bill Moyers, on PBS, conducted a series of interviews with the legendary teacher Joseph Campbell about the power ancient mythology to explain meaning of life and how eternal and universal stories can explain the workings of virtue, of folly and of fate in the modern world. Campbell related the story from the 1950’s of a man waiting for commuter train into New York. In the morning. At dawn. In the cold. After a few minutes of innocuous, ordinary conversation, this man stopped talking, looked down at the platform and after a long pensive pause, this inward looking man, in an unguarded moment, said, “You know I feel I am dying a little, on the inside, everyday I come here. But I do it for my family”.

For the vast majority of people, the heroic in modern life does not come about on bloody battlefields or mythic quests. Life is not a movie. Victories come from overcoming the tedium of self-doubt, mind-bending twists of circumstantial events and the small petty cruelties of small petty people. Courage is revealed in tired moments, during the crowded hours of disappointment, regret, and frustration on street corners, subway station and sometimes in coffee shops.

That moment of self-revelation in Plymouth was the most authentic thing she has done in this campaign. When she said that she was going though all this for her country, she convinced many people, middle aged people, in New Hampshire that the motive for her struggle was for something higher that pride or ambition. That she is doing this for that something which is greater than the self.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Bill, Boulder CO — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 09:07:49 GMT

What I find surprising is the short-term memory lapse people have. I thought Clinton was a good president, but remember the "Impeach the Clintons" bumper-stickers? After 8 years people were tired of Bill & Hillary. Since then, she has *actually* gained 2 years of Senate experience on Obama, and nothing on Edwards, and yet she claims to be the proven leader?

What speaks to me is how these candidates do in their home state. I know many people in Chicago, and New York, and for the most part Chicagoans rave about Obama while New Yorkers are lukewarm for Clinton. (Remember she moved there for the Senate seat? They spent the 20 years previous in D.C. and Arkansas.)

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Ato Chiffre — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 10:06:37 GMT

The real money prediction markets (Intrade, Iowa, Betfair) were suggesting that Obama had a 90% + probability of winning the Caucas. Prediction market devotees spoke of Clinton being "dead in the water."

Instead, the prediction markets simplay shadowed the polls and got it very badly wrong. One wonders what excuses the likes of Wolfers et al will now come up with?

It is well known that polls often get it wrong when there is an African/American candidate involved - so, if the prediction markets were efficient, one would have expected them to discount this fact and to have given Clinton a more realistic chance of winning.

I'm afarid this all looks more like the wisdom of fools at play!

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

George Provost, Manchestet, N.H. — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 14:42:06 GMT

I cannot understand why it is so hard for pollsters to understand that people are sick and tired of being brain washed by the PR community. Thsi last attempt was really sickening. They saturated the networks, media , the endlass telephone calls. I stopped answering my phone for the duration of N.H. Primaries because of this. people have minds of their own and I wonder how many people actually changed their votes because of this .

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Jean H, Kinderhoook NY — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 14:45:02 GMT

I will not be buying either of the lesser of those two particular evils, thank you. I was prepared to vote for Senator Biden as he was actually qualified to be President and had NOT sold out to Big Media nor to the other special interests.

As MSNBC and other media has crucified Biden and laughably crowned these two as accomplished, I suppose the lemmings who read this pap will "buy" one poison or the other... myself? for the first time in my LIFE I will not be voting out of DISGUST. Even McCain has proven to be a total phony and sell-out to Big Money.

Where do I get to bet on the complete elimination of freedom of speech, a transparent government or even a guarantee of the most rudimentary civil rights? I am guessing that I can't, since the odds are overwhelmingly in my favor and the house knows it would be taking money it would have to pay out.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Wayne, Alamogordo, NM — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 15:34:16 GMT

I've been predicting that Hillary will get the Democractic nod ever since she got elected as a Senator. I didn't need an indicator to figure that out, just plain old common sense. Not that I like her, but she is forever associated with Bill (who I never have liked), but who was a very popular President, especially with women and minority voters. And let's not kid ourselves about Barrack. He's a nice guy, but his religious affiliation is in question (not good for a Democrat or a Republican), and he seems to only be real popular with the younger generation (who have a bad habit of not voting when the time comes). Those are key indicators that will continue to be used by most parties and in my opinion will continue to swing Hillary's way. We had all better be prepared to use the words "Madam President" real soon.

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Drew, New Lenox, IL — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 18:28:45 GMT

What is this...fantasy politics?

Buy Obama, sell Clinton?

Des Emery, St. Thomas, ON, Canada — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 05:22:08 GMT

Alan - prediction modeling requires precision in the different postulates which can be applied to a specific situation. Politics, sometimes described as 'the art of the possible,' contains far too many unexpected twists and turns for a result to be accurately predicted.

Hillary's near-tears changed the minds of many women in New Hampshire, but a repeat next time will not be as effective. Barack's intelligence, charisma, and good intentions will be seen as stable unless he says or does something contrary to the image he has cultivated.

Hillary thus benefited from showing her emotions, but Barack's popularity will drop if he does the same thing. Prediction modeling? Or just plain gambling?