The 5-year-old space age

steve smyth — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:10:41 GMT

SmythSpace will still beat them all to the punch...betcha!
The SSII model looks like every other almost spaceship out there to me...duct tape and all.
Tinkering Rocketeers with lotsa $$$ have done their jobs...establishing demand, rules and regs, and creating a presence...good on them.
Unfortunately for them, they discovered that this ain't some lark too late.
Try asking someone who isn't a faithful reader of this site what about Space Tourism...WHAAA?
Tell ol' Will I said Hi!

The 5-year-old space age

John Canzona, Los Angeles, CA — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 00:10:33 GMT

Space X?

[ALAN ADDS: Yes, I thought about adding SpaceX and Bigelow Aerospace, and then Orbital Sciences just to be fair, and then maybe Space Adventures, but then I thought I should limit this particular posting to suborbital space ventures. If I get a chance I'll try to add a little more about all these companies in a follow-up comment. But the reason why SpaceX in particular is not included here is because they're looking at strictly orbital flight - and commercial human flight (going beyond COTS-D to take on paying private passengers) is fairly far down the line for them. I did touch upon SpaceX in the New Space posting eariler this week, by the way, and if you want to read all about the prognosis for SpaceX and Orbital, you can check the GAO report on COTS:]

http://gao.gov/products/GAO-09-618

The 5-year-old space age

BillB, St. Pete, FL — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 00:59:00 GMT

What happened to Space Access?

The 5-year-old space age

William Cousert, Murrieta, California — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:26:11 GMT

When are we going to see trips to orbiting space stations and the Moon at prices average "middle class" people can afford?

The 5-year-old space age

George Atkinson, Silver City, NM — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 03:35:43 GMT

I'd love to see the pics, but the link

http://www.flickr.com/photos/24526864@N03/3641271495/

sends me to yahoo.

[ALAN ADDS: Golly, I now see that that picture has been made private. Not cool. I will remove that link.]

The 5-year-old space age

Kristoph, Issaquah, WA — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 03:38:21 GMT

What about spacex? It's by far the most successful venture next to scaled composites (and on a much smaller budget).

The 5-year-old space age

David — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 04:17:39 GMT

Where are those DiLithium crystals, Captain!!

The 5-year-old space age

Paul, USA — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 04:32:51 GMT

What about Bigelow Aero? They up to anything neat?

The 5-year-old space age

Ex Eastcoaster — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 05:02:04 GMT

Not even a mention of SpaceX? They are one of the biggest and most likely to succeed in the private rocket arena. hello...

The 5-year-old space age

Dave BC WA — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 05:31:13 GMT

Just out of curiosity, is that picture of Burt Rutan sticking his head out of one of the planes windows real, or just Photoshop?

[ALAN ADDS: Ha, I see what you mean... I think it's real, here's the original version from Virgin Galactic Web site. You can see Burt's hand sticking out, too, but the biggest reason I don't think it's photoshopped is because I don't think Virgin would do that.]

http://www.virgingalactic.com/pressftp/content/General%20Images/Burt%20Rutan%20and%20SpaceShipTwo/SpaceShipTwo%20and%20Burt%20Rutan%20out%20of%20pilots%20window.jpg

The 5-year-old space age

Juan Sosash, NY — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 06:14:22 GMT

I just watched the movie Star Treck, and it makes me wonder if we'll ever get that far. Baby steps, NASA, baby steps, that's the key to success! So keep it up!

The 5-year-old space age

Jeremy, Henderson, NV — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 07:47:58 GMT

"The Mark 1 is meant to blaze a trail for later flights that will go beyond the outer-space boundary."

The outer-space boundary? What exactly is the outer-space boundry.

I definately was one of those who thought we would be in space by now. I am actually surprised that they have not yet started tourists flights yet. Although I can imagine that there are a lot of safety concerns when launching civilians miles above the earth :)

[ALAN ADDS: The internationally accepted boundary of space is 100 kilometers in altitude. The Lynx Mark 1 is designed to go to 61 kilometers (38 miles), though it could conceivably go higher with a lighter payload.]

The 5-year-old space age

Michael M, Kent oh — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:33:49 GMT

"The SSII model looks like every other almost spaceship out there to me...duct tape and all. "

That's not a model,that's a prototype,and I really doubt that the silver tape on the graphite composite is actually cloth duct tape. Presumably its some sort of sealing tape that's more similar to the metal tape used on ducts. (which oddly enough,is NOT duct tape. Go figure,you would expect that duct tape is actually used on ducts,but its not). Im not really that knowledgable about the specifics of graphite composite construction,but that looks pretty much like pictures of other such construction. (think B2,F117,F22 etc) I have no doubt that SSII will fly. Not only does Scaled have a track record,they are now owned by Northrop. About the only thing I can see that would derail the effort is Virgin deciding to pull out,which does not seem likely.

The other ventures though are different stories. XCOR from what Ive seen seems like a serious company. Blue Origin is a wild card. The simple fact that they are so tight lipped about what they are doing and don't go in for all the hype makes me wonder if they really are serious. On the other hand,maybe that's the idea,instead of hyping like a late night infomercial to get investors,maybe they are using their "serious" and secretive image to woo their investors. Armadillo has a lot of tenacity,but does not seem to be really getting anywhere. The rest of them are just the "also rans"

The 5-year-old space age

Mark, Manchester, CT — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:43:50 GMT

Most kids have dreams of being a fireman, police officer, and even an astronaut when they grow up. My seven year old doesn't just want to be an astronaut, he is insistent that he will be "the first man on Mars". He's never had the desire for "other employment". You look him dead in the eye and he won't blink about this one. Keep it up folks. By the time your visions and technology have advanced enough in that direction his dream will come true.

- A grateful father

The 5-year-old space age

Eric, Salinas, CA — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:21:42 GMT

Cool article Alan! It's interesting how many little startup companies there are trying to get their rocket planes into space. It would be cool if one of these rocket planes could replace the shuttle so that we have the ability to keep building space stations in space. I think any company that succeeds in getting their rocket planes working should be considered winners.

The 5-year-old space age

John Carter — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:43:16 GMT

What sort of experiments could an amateur do to make a contribution?

The 5-year-old space age

Obama Supporter — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:14:24 GMT

Disgusting. These people should be focusing on a cure for cancer, instead of this complete of waste of money, time, and brain power on something so useless.

The 5-year-old space age

Scott Lazar, PA — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:45:38 GMT

If you want NASA to ever get beyond LEO (Low Earth Orbit) and the ISS - push your senators and representatives to support DIRECT.

www.directlauncher.com

The 5-year-old space age

Smith, Los Angeles, California — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:09:51 GMT

I skimmed the Jeff Bezos video and thought it would be helpful to direct readers directly to the section on Blue Origin between approximately 35:40-38:40. Were there other scenes about Blue Origin in the video?

The 5-year-old space age

Luke Bullard, Sandy, UT — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:17:37 GMT

I am currently developing a Moon Probe leading the way for future satellites of the moon and eventually human moon inhabitants. That not being on a timeframe due to our current projects in the military aspect of life. My website is not fully up but we are working very hard!!!!

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 18:09:05 GMT

"When are we going to see trips to orbiting space stations and the Moon at prices average "middle class" people can afford?"

Patience, grasshopper. You can't expect exotic* new products or services to get major cost-cutting development and economies of scale until the 'early adopters' get out there and show it's worth it. (When did you first see a big LCD TV, and how much was it? How much was a similar sized model when you finally bought one, years later? And that's just television, something you *know* there's a market for. Early automobiles might be a better analogy.) Indeed, I'm annoyed by those who oppose suborbital tourism *because* only the wealthy could afford it (do they have a problem with yachts?) and it shouldn't be done *until* it's down to a five-dollar ride...

* Exotic now, but like anything else, we'll get used to it...

"High Technology is anything invented after you were born."
- Alan Kay

...though I've also seen it phrased; "...anything invented after you were 13 years old.")

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 18:15:45 GMT

"I just watched the movie Star Treck, and it makes me wonder if we'll ever get that far. Baby steps, NASA, baby steps, that's the key to success! So keep it up!"

NASA? Where'd you see that name in the story? To paraphrase the usual movie credit; "Not one dime of government/tax money was harmed in the production of these vehicles."

The first thing the public must get over is that not only does 'space' not always equal 'NASA,' but not all 'manned space flight' equals NASA (or any other branch of any government) either...

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 18:19:26 GMT

"...but the biggest reason I don't think it's photoshopped is because I don't think Virgin would do that."

Or even need to. The first SS2 body has been in the works for some time now. Posing in it would be no biggie.

The 5-year-old space age

flyndmc — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 22:05:44 GMT

Well beam me a 2x4 Scotty....

The 5-year-old space age

steve smyth — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 22:23:55 GMT

Michael M...it's metallized fabric tape, which provides a seal when applying the inner mesh fabric to hold the pieces together...keeps the goo from squishing out through the seams when tabs are applied.
I confess to using the term DUCT tape for its impact value...but...let's face it...it's duct tape.
Also...Scaled has always been a Govt. Contractor...the Northrup connect is a formality.

The 5-year-old space age

Bob Ondez — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:24:53 GMT

Has anyone thought about using balloons to reach a significant altitude? My understanding is that the bulk of the fuel and hence the weight and cost is to reach the first 100,000 feet or so. You would think a helium launch vehicle would be a slower, but cheaper, way to get a craft off the ground.

The 5-year-old space age

John F. Hendry — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 02:22:42 GMT

How fast can a spaceship go? Points of past observation comprising the Higgs Field are not the observer, only the body of the observer.

O=E=W(wp=SxT){a}T(g=S/T) is the Unified Field Theory.
The equation shows 2 inertial frames of reference (weak & strong) and that Higgs Field is a worm hole. S=space T=time conversion for Ohm's law. O=observer, E=energy, W=weak Force,{a} replaces = between weak force and strong force and is weak force asymmetry time (un-weighted) added to strong force. wp=weak pressure is observer (weight) gravity relative to weak force. g=gravity in strong force (collective) Add weak force asymmetry to Newton’s law and it corrects moon's orbit. Prove this wrong if you can. The weak force is the Higgs mass in oscillation and found in the DNA's gene ensemble instance location. O=E=mc2. No observer=no energy. The observer and its weight is the missing link in physics. You can’t be two places at the same time. Points of observation increase exponentially. We are made of frequencies…I am 1,3,5, you are 2,4,6, and the Eggman is 7.9,11. IE, not at the same time....just looks that way. EM>{a}<GAV. Figure it out....time is the key here.
JFH^^

The 5-year-old space age

Nieves Rosillo, New York, N.Y. — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 02:34:59 GMT

Forget about the price (?!) what's the age limit?

The 5-year-old space age

Press to Digitate, Alexandria, VA — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 04:05:12 GMT

Alan, you missed the most probable leader in commercial passenger spaceflight; the $20 Billion global aerospace conglomerate that is funding its own robust competition for Branson's Virgin Galactic - EADS/Astrium. They are already building the flight hardware, dont need to raise money from anyone, and have the resources to do it faster than Rutan. http://www.astrium.eads.net/en/families/space-plane-tourism-flight-shuttle

The 5-year-old space age

jerry w, longstreet, la — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 04:44:39 GMT

things will began to happen much faster when they put down their computers and pipes and really get down to work -- it takes real "hands on" work to put a thought to practice

The 5-year-old space age

Maddog — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 05:07:29 GMT

"Disgusting. These people should be focusing on a cure for cancer, instead of this complete of waste of money, time, and brain power on something so useless."-Obama Worshiper.

If the human race doesn't eventually leave the cradle of Earth, a cure for cancer will be irrelevant.

The 5-year-old space age

Scott Houdek — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 05:19:13 GMT

wow!, 5 years old, huh?, I bet NASA is cringing at the site of private persons going to space, it would not be long now that ordinary people would take up the opportune time of this very old dream of your "space brothers"!
I would not be surprise to see handicapped people into space!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
who needs a wheelchair in space, it would be pointless in space!, LOL, except on Earth of course!

The 5-year-old space age

john Gale — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 06:59:26 GMT

The SST concordes were a step in the right direction going high enough to see earths curveture. The fares were reasonable and they had desinations that could use that service. But the risk of burning in midair was just too great. That is whats wrong with these new noble pioneers. Its the risk of passengers dying.

The 5-year-old space age

Mark A. Felkins Sacramento CA — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 07:12:44 GMT

I think that unless, Someone comes up with new space ship, with new cheap way unknown to the Gov, and then flys into space. Wthout the Gov finding out until its in space. Until then I think the Gov will never let us go to space! I think its fear of the unknown. people who dont want us in space! And something they dont want us to know!

The 5-year-old space age

Ron, New York, NY — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 08:49:57 GMT

Dear Mark from Manchester,

Do everything possible to support your son's dreams and I have no doubt that he'll go places that no one has ever gone before. One day he'll do things that will make all of us proud. You're a very lucky parent and your son's a very lucky young man. Happy Father's Day!

The 5-year-old space age

Ron, New York, NY — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 08:55:01 GMT

Hey Obama Supporter:

Did you know that the man you supported for President helped raise NASA's budget for space exploration over ONE BILLION dollars?

So how you like that?

The 5-year-old space age

Thomas Ashby — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 09:06:36 GMT

It's sexy... but useless. Even the gov't hasn't bothered
with public spaceflight. Public spaceflight serves only the very rich. This is NOT a 2001: A Space Odyssey world...get a grip.

The 5-year-old space age

Thomas Ashby — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 09:11:56 GMT

It just may be that sub-orbital transportation just isn't feasible to serve the masses. We just can't do rockets in such a way to have airlines pursue such a dream. We are stuck with the first 5 miles of atmosphere for global travel.

The 5-year-old space age

Jym Allyn — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 10:43:05 GMT

The "so-called Obama Supporter" is obviously suffering from "fecalis mentalis."

The "cure for cancer" will not come from pouring lots of money into research, but will come from the peripheral insight from people who think and question their own assumptions (unlike the mental myopia of Obama objectors). [...]

The 5-year-old space age

tj, japan — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:00:00 GMT

obama supporter, you should be ashamed of yourself. who are you to say they are wasting their time? people everywhere do what they love to do, whether it be a professional athlete to helping cure cancer in children. i don't hear anyone saying that athletes should stop wasting their time throwing the pig skin and start researching cures. just because these people have the intellectual capacity to dream big doesn't mean they should stop what they're doing to find cancer cures. where would this world be if we told our children to quit drawing pictures, quit playing music, quit dreaming? all the inventions we have today are because people dreamed, even in the face of people telling them they were wasting their time.

The 5-year-old space age

Dan, New York — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:09:58 GMT

Once again, humanity's thirst for knowledge and "excitement" will be its undoing. They haven't even perfected the Boeing yet, or any other commercial jet. And we all know the big black mark that is on the safety record of most commercial and non-commercial jets around the world...

And they can't make this thing 100% safe. They even said they hope to be using this several times a day, which brings the safety factor down a notch.

Although I suppose that's the risk you pay, just foolish considering that they haven't perfected the Jet, and that most of the technology they will be putting into the space rockets will be Boeing. They will still be using outdated technology...

The 5-year-old space age

Scott Marcus — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:19:56 GMT

"When are we going to see trips to orbiting space stations and the Moon at prices average "middle class" people can afford?"

Uh, never. Most average middle class folks can't afford to send their kids to college or travel ON the earth. What makes you think that they'll be able to afford something like this? Because Virgin Galactic's hype say so? Please!

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:52:29 GMT

"Disgusting. These people should be focusing on a cure for cancer, instead of this complete of waste of money, time, and brain power on something so useless."

Hmmm...

You got a problem with spending their *own* money on a venture intended to make more money?

You find it logical to make aerospace people work in oncology?

Trust me, there are plenty of people working on cancer, not just out of altruism, but because there would be plenty of money to be made on that, too...

The 5-year-old space age

Thomas Paine — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 20:13:13 GMT

Obama supporter, I'm with you. How dare these people spend there money as they please? Don't fear I BO and congress have plans to stop that.

The 5-year-old space age

Mike Anigua GU — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:13:48 GMT

Quote from Obama Supporter: "Disgusting. These people should be focusing on a cure for cancer, instead of this complete of waste of money, time, and brain power on something so useless."

Have you a clue? While you are holding your pants up with the Velcro fastener (NASA) using your power drill (NASA) to fasten that "I love OBAMA" (With the scratch resistant covering (NASA)) picture to your wall, please take some time and investigate all of the medical, scientific and everyday use breakthroughs which have come from NASA and other Space related agencies and technologies.

Have you even bothered to look at what contributions Alen, Branson and other Multi Millionaires / Billionaires have made outside of this venture?

Do you even know how much of the US budget is spent on NASA $17(B)? Its a pittance compared to what is spent on defense $514(B), medicare / medicade $600(B). [...]

The 5-year-old space age

Ron, New York, NY — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:13:43 GMT

Dan from New York:

Is your car 100% safe? Are your subways or your railways 100% safe. They haven't even perfected the automobile yet, so stop riding around in one. Talk about an industry with black marks on its safety record... You must walk everywhere you go. Let's just hope that one day you don't get hit by a truck.

And what does Boeing have to do with any of these companies? I get the feeling that your grasp of technology, whether cutting-edge or outdated, is minimal at best.

Is there any form of long-range transportation that's safer than commercial aviation? Just stay on the ground where you belong, and don't worry about the safety of people who have more guts than you do.

The 5-year-old space age

Ron, New York, NY — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:30:35 GMT

Thomas Ashby,

There was a time when commercial aviation served only the very rich. How's that looking today? Are you going to tell me that you've never travelled on a commercial aircraft? Or maybe you have, but only because you're a multi-millionaire.

And what does the government have to do with "public spaceflight?" How many "public airlines" does the government run? Would they be doing this in order to turn a profit or just out of the goodness of their hearts?

If the objective is to turn a profit then that's the domain of private enterprise. Welcome to America.

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, rochester, NY — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 03:13:10 GMT

"It's sexy... but useless."

If it makes money by giving an experience enough people will pay for, it's useful. Don't pretend that any and everything that's done in space is to 'advance the knowledge of mankind.' Satcoms carry the same crappy TV programs as anything else, but the business model works.

"Even the gov't hasn't bothered with public spaceflight."

Nor should it. It's NASA's job (among other things) to advance the aerospace technological state of the art.

(c) The Congress declares that the general welfare of the United States requires that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (as established by title II of this Act) seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space.

(from the NASA Charter, at:
http://www.nasa.gov/offices/ogc/about/space_act1.html )

It's someone else's job to *do* something with it.

"Public spaceflight serves only the very rich."

1. Why is that a bad thing? Some *not* so rich people will make money from it. (Do you think that everyone who works for a yacht maker is as wealthy as their customers? I imagine the Ford plant worker earns as much on the Lincoln assembly line as the Escort assembly line. But where is he if Lincoln sales go down? Oh, wait...)

2. MANY new technologies start out as high-end, high-cost products or services. If you can't build up demand and economies of scale, they'll never get cheaper. You have patience too, Grasshopper....

"This is NOT a 2001: A Space Odyssey world...get a grip."

And the commercial service to LEO that we saw in the movie didn't spring fully formed from the forehead of Zeus, either (and we don't know how cheap *those* seats were, though some agency seems to have chartered that whole flight, just for Dr. Floyd). It also had to have built up from something more expensive and less sophisticated...

The 5-year-old space age

jubal hershaw — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:13:18 GMT

I find it ironic that so called liberals (ie Obama Supporter) claim the same territory as neo-Cons. This territory is scientific advancement; remember stem cells? It seems that both of them seem to want to regulate intellectual property and stifle human potential. Here comes the new boss...same as the old boss.

The 5-year-old space age

Jason F, Houston, Texas — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:40:22 GMT

So these guys are lauded for doing nothing more than putting a guy up for a few minutes on a small airplane LOSING 10's of millions of dollars? If they ever DO get into space - it will be for PURE PROFIT. The only "cargo" they will be lifting up will be you guinea pigs who choose to pay the HUGE costs. All the while NASA is plugging away - lifting 7 astronauts off regularly with payloads - ya know scientific experiments to better humanity - the size of school buses.
C'mon - let's get real. Why have such ZEAL and PASSION for an industry that is PROFIT DRIVEN? Will we ever be like Star Trek? We could be - if our "Federation" decided to spend more than LESS of 1%. I've got a great idea - why not give NASA the DOD budget for 5 years and give the DOD NASA's budget? We'd be much closer to Star Trek than you think.
Or - we could simply have this "haliburton" of the sky nonsense......
Good Luck!

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:26:06 GMT

"Once again, humanity's thirst for knowledge and "excitement" will be its undoing. They haven't even perfected the Boeing yet, or any other commercial jet."

And yet people ride them. I plan to be on a few this weekend. It's the only way to go where I want and back, in the time available. (And yes, the reason for my trip is arguably for purposes of 'knowledge and excitement' at the destination...though it happens that I enjoy the flying experience when things go well.)

"And we all know the big black mark that is on the safety record of most commercial and non-commercial jets around the world..."

Do we? And as compared to what? Driving? For whatever it's worth, I've personally observed more automobile accidents (maybe a half dozen) in my life than aircraft go down (none). I suspect that's true of most of us, and should give you a rough sense of which is more likely...

"And they can't make this thing 100% safe."

LOL! That's an absolute truth. Now, can you name even one thing that IS? (Do you drive at all?)

"They even said they hope to be using this several times a day, which brings the safety factor down a notch."

And yet trains, planes and automobiles (and more) are used 'several times a day.' Commercial transport vehicles that aren't being used aren't making money (and they most pay for themselves before there's any real profit) Do you think there's some law of physics that says a manned, rocket-propelled vehicle can't do that?

We can only hope that the demand for suborbital flight *will* be that great...

The 5-year-old space age

Bob, Northern Virginia — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:47:15 GMT

The Wright Brothers flew for the first time in 1903 but were still developing and demonstrating the technology in 1908. This is analogous to Burt Rutan's technology, because he's using an approach that's different from rocketry, just as the Wright Brothers' approach was different from hot air balloons. The development would probably go faster is there was economic demand for private space flight other than "space tourism"; however, that has not materialized yet. The industry will take off in a big way once there is an economic imperative for space flight. For example, if there was a natural resource that could be obtained elsewhere in the solar system and brought to earth, then true space flight would develop because you would make more by investing in the technology than by ignoring it. Meanwhile, government-sponsored space programs and space tourism are little more than publicity stunts. (By the way, there are apparently lakes of methane on Titan, and the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune have large amounts of methane. The solutions to the technical problems of obtaining these resources and bringing them back to earth are probably foreseeable from the vantage point of current technology. More difficult is the economic problem: How do you encourage investors to put their money into a natural gas project where it take at least 60 years before pilot operations begin and where it could easily take 20 years to move the natural gas from the well head to the customer?)

The 5-year-old space age

Joe Martin — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:59:48 GMT

We have to leave this rock. We have used it up and will not support future generations. Time to leave the nest and fly to find new homes to expand our family, The Human Race.

The 5-year-old space age

Kenneth, San Diego, California — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:09:40 GMT

Armadillo Aerospace?!? They'd be lucky if they could launch a flying patio chair into the air 100 FEET and have it come down in one whole piece.

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, rochestr, NY — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:45:19 GMT

"So these guys are lauded for doing nothing more than putting a guy up for a few minutes on a small airplane..."

One that goes into suborbital space, don't forget. Does anyone else offer that right now?

(sound of crickets)

It's a potential (in that I could, with enough money) choice I would have, that does not currently exist.

"...LOSING 10's of millions of dollars?"

Losing? If they don't make money, they fail. That's the incentive to do it right. That's how business works. From this, down to a mom and pop grocery store.

"If they ever DO get into space - it will be for PURE PROFIT."

Yeah, and? You say that as if it's a bad thing. In a few days I'm going to fly on a commercial airline that's giving me the service for the same reason. I get to Houston and back quickly, they get money. We both get what we want. Problem? Substitute 'suborbital flight experience' for 'Houston and back' and the logic plays the same way.

"The only "cargo" they will be lifting up will be you guinea pigs who choose to pay the HUGE costs."

The 'guinea pigs' were people like the brave X-15 test pilots that (among other advances in aeronautical development) showed humans can handle that kind of thing. And *I* won't be doing it, as $200k USD is slightly out of my price range. But God bless those that can. If enough of them do, it may work itself don to something I *can* handle.

But it never will, if it doesn't start somewhere.

"All the while NASA is plugging away - lifting 7 astronauts off regularly with payloads - ya know scientific experiments to better humanity - the size of school buses."

And I have *no* problem that they use my (involuntarily) tax money to do these things (though some do have one). They have my permission to continue, as long as they do it efficiently, and not just to keep jobs in one or two senators' states...

BTW, we *won't* be doing as many as 7 at one time, pretty soon...

"C'mon - let's get real. Why have such ZEAL and PASSION for an industry that is PROFIT DRIVEN?"

Because they will ultimately do things for us that NASA does not, and should not. (You think NASA owns and launches all the communications satellites in operation? That's a PROFIT DRIVEN space activity that's made money for years.)

If the above activity continues, ultimately people like us may be able to *buy* our way into space. We have a greater chance of making it big in professional sports than getting into space as a NASA astronaut. THAT is why the zeal.

"Will we ever be like Star Trek? We could be - if our "Federation" decided to spend more than LESS of 1%. I've got a great idea - why not give NASA the DOD budget for 5 years and give the DOD NASA's budget?"

A lot would probably happen (though to throw that kind of money at a small agency is just *begging* for waste), it would be cool to watch, I'd cheer every success...

...But it doesn't change the question: 'Can someone like ME get personally get into space?' My chances are still smaller than pro sports even in your scenario. Whatever NASA might do with that budget, selling rides won't be one of them. I'd still have to go to the Russians. Assuming I had $25 million USD to play with, of course, but NASA won't do it at ANY price...

And again, it really shouldn't. Go back to what I said about its charter. It's art of NASA's *JOB* to do aerospace research and development in *support* of private industry, not to *compete* with it.

"We'd be much closer to Star Trek than you think."

Are there no businesspeople in the Star Trek Universe? No 'passenger' spaceships? (Lord knows there are enough miners and ore carrying ships.) Don't private contractors build starships for Star Fleet, much as government agencies (and Star Fleet *is* one) buy systems today? (and *something* is exchanged in that world without money, trust me) Do you think Star Fleet accepts everyone who applies? Or that it even should?

If you're a good Trekker, you know that even Zephram Cochrane invented warp drive FOR THE MONEY.

And God bless that, too. If someone can create a true FTL drive, it'll be worth every damn cent.

"Or - we could simply have this "haliburton" of the sky nonsense......"

And you think a government agency can manage all space affairs better? Why isn't NOAA in charge of everything the US does at sea? (Oh, that's right, they're only a research agency too.)

Here's hoping that commercial manned space flight can *get* as big as Haliburton.

The 5-year-old space age

Jason F — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 20:17:48 GMT

Hey Frank - you fail to see the point. I'm not against private spaceflight at all. But - they simply cannot do what NASA has done. Ask them. What is stopping you from going into space? Are you fat and lazy? They do have an Astronaut Training Program. Why not do it this way.

You might want the Government giving you health care -I prefer it finding new technological ways of understanding our world with the help of international partners. Never in the history of humanity has this been done - and quite succesfully I might ad. Healthcare? That's been done and failed countless times.

Private Space cannot do what NASA can do - and simply are "light years" away. If you're tax dollars will go for anything - think of the urine water recycler they are working on now - testing to perfection - so one day every man woman and child will have pure, drinkable water.
Now - snide remarks aside - my government could be building bombs - fighting wars - attempting social programs that never work - or they could be doing this. Hey - if the private space fliers would like to assist - that would be great!

I am glad to see we have such a supporter in you for our manned space program juding by your length in response. Good luck!

The 5-year-old space age

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 07:57:46 GMT

"Hey Frank - you fail to see the point. I'm not against private spaceflight at all. But - they simply cannot do what NASA has done. Ask them."

I don't have to. I *know* they're not trying to and they don't claim to. Thes guys are trying to provide a novel transportation service, not do basic science. (though NASA and others are considering using that service to do short microgravity research flights and I'm sure the providers are just as willing to sell flights to them as to anyone else...NASA might not try to develop what would be a manned sounding rocket but It would be foolish to not use one that someone else has developed and tested)

Why do you appear to have a problem with that which the private companies *are* trying to do?

"What is stopping you from going into space? Are you fat and lazy? They do have an Astronaut Training Program. Why not do it this way."

(LOL!) So, I should spend tens of thousands of dollars to get the necessary engineering and/or scientific degrees (and what if I just don't have the money and/or talent for that?), then somehow by plenty more hard work (and not a little luck) manage to get into the NASA astronaut corps, then wait years for a *possible* seat on a three man capsule that will (maybe) launch just a couple times a year? (some people in the corps *never* get to fly, you know) I guess I'm 'fat and lazy' because I won't learn to personally pilot a commercial airliner, just to have a chance to fly somewhere on one...

Again, I have a better chance of breaking into professional, major league sports.

I want a service to ultimately come into being, with the certainty that if I can afford a ticket, I can get into sub orbit, orbit and beyond, as the technology of the time permits, *without* having to join the government astronaut priesthood. (Again, the Russians are happy to offer it, to the extent they can.)

That kind of option exists on Earth in air land and sea travel. Paying passengers, as distinct from crews. There's no reason space need be any different.

"You might want the Government giving you health care -I prefer it finding new technological ways of understanding our world with the help of international partners."

'International partnerships' is sometimes like herding cats, but anyway...

"Never in the history of humanity has this been done - and quite succesfully I might ad. Healthcare? That's been done and failed countless times."

I don't see the relevance here. I don't know about health care and wether the Government should 'give' it to me but I did say earlier it isn't the province of government to just 'give' me a ride into space. Even the Russians don't do it for free. I believe it *is* its province to encourage technological developments of the kind that commercial entities can use to provide commercial spaceflight, however. (thereby increasing the tax base with new businesses, and maintaining overall US technological leadership)

"Private Space cannot do what NASA can do "

Again, I did not say it could. Not only am I in complete agreement with that statement but I claim that the *reverse* of it is *also* true.

"- and simply are "light years" away. If you're tax dollars will go for anything - think of the urine water recycler they are working on now - testing to perfection - so one day every man woman and child will have pure, drinkable water."

Including on a *privately* owned and operated space station. You see, this is precisely the kind of commercial-enabling R&D that I'm talking about. You think Bigelow Aerospace isn't paying attention to that very same development? And that it won't use it when they can? Yes, I most assuredly credit NASA for undertaking that kind of risky R&D. Now, entities *other* than NASA can use it in space.

"Hey - if the private space fliers would like to assist - that would be great!"

Just like anyone else who contracts to provide a product or service to the Government, why wouldn't they?

"I am glad to see we have such a supporter in you for our manned space program juding by your length in response. Good luck!"

I'm a 55 year old space buff ('cadet,' if you wish, I wear that description proudly) and have been, since my age was in the single numbers.

I'm for enabling and reducing the cost of human access to space for *all* reasons and purposes. Not just for (or through) one government agency. And not just for pure research and exploration. (indeed, this cannot help but make that easier) And opportunites to make money doing this, will get us out there faster than almost anything else.

(Even the so-called 'Age of Exploration' was profit driven. Columbus and Magellan were looking for better trade routes to Asia...and as badly as Magellan's voyage ended [he lost 4 of 5 ships and didn't make it home himself], they *still* made a profit on the voyage, with the spices they brought home...)

The 5-year-old space age

Ron, New York, NY — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:58:50 GMT

Jason F,

You raise some good points, and your support and enthusiasm for this nation’s space program is uplifting and inspiring, but I’m afraid I’m going to have to side mostly with Frank on this discussion.

Private industry can do FAR MORE than government ever can. Do you need an example? A small company founded by some California hippies in the family garage back in the mid 1970’s. Today that company is known as APPLE, and I hope I don’t have to go into a long list of all the very innovative products they’ve brought to market just in the last few years. Another small firm, Microsoft, was founded around the same time in much the same way. Today both companies are major multi-billion dollar entities that collectively have completely transformed the lives of everyday people in just about every corner of the globe. They design and market innovative products that everyone in the world is willing to pay good money for, and to the extent that they deliver on the promise of those products, they deserve every penny that they get. Their clients include everyday men and women, teenagers, pre-teens, school systems, universities, and every government on this planet that counts itself as part of the 21st century. That’s what private industry can do. That’s what private industry is supposed to do. And NASA, as part of its charter, is tasked with supporting private industry in any constructive way possible.

If that urine recycler is ever brought to market it will either be by the private contractor that developed it in the first place, or by some other firm licensed by NASA to do so. And if it is able to deliver on its promise of pure drinking water, then it can ultimately help people all over the world while at the same time making a profit for those who initially spent their time and personal assets in order to insure its success.

NASA is part of the government. It is not their purpose to go into business or to turn a profit. But the by-products of their research and development often do result in technical innovations that private enterprise can refine and enhance for the greater benefit of all of our lives. That’s a good thing.

And when a small group of people come together to create something the world has never seen before, whether it’s the first personal computer or the first commercial space plane, they’re merely following down the same entrepreneurial path blazed by countless others down throughout the history of this country. Whether they succeed or fail, at least they’ve got the guts to try. And sometimes when they do succeed, as noted above, they succeed big, and it changes the entire world.

BTW, SpaceX is a commercial company, and many people feel that their Dragon spacecraft will reach earth orbit long before NASA’s new Orion does.

The 5-year-old space age

Joe Strout, Fort Collins, CO — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:32:13 GMT

Jason F, the reason we're excited about commercial spaceflight is because we believe that, once the market gets underway, it will drive progress MUCH faster than government-run programs can do. Look at the history of computers, automobiles, and aviation for three easy examples of market forces successfully driving progress. Look at what NASA's done in the last 40 years for an example of what government programs typically do (i.e. not much).

This ties in nicely with P to D's comment about EADS/Astrium. Another government-run project, this one by a collection of governments that has no experience with manned spaceflight at all, no less. But the real proof is in the putting -- go to http://www.astrium.eads.net/ and look for any news. The last (and only) press release is from 2007 when they "unveiled" their space plane (by which they mean, distributed some computer renderings of an imaginary space plane). If they were really going to beat Virgin into space, you'd think they might have some more news to report since then. I highly doubt the EADS effort will ever produce any flying hardware at all.

The 5-year-old space age

Robert Horning, Logan, Utah — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 20:43:24 GMT

I would like to point out that while Armadillo Aerospace is indeed working with the Rocket Racing League, that effort is not strictly a sub-orbital vehicle, there are efforts by Armadillo to make a genuine sub-orbital spaceflight vehicle, including a vehicle to try and pioneer some extreme altitude skydiving, including skydiving from space. IMHO this development is going to have some profound implications for contingency plans for emergency re-entry of the atmosphere. I'm glad that you mentioned Armadillo Areospace, but there is much more work going on there than the rocket racing league.

Another interesting small start-up company that has been making quiet and steady progress on their vehicles is Paul Breed and Unreasonable Rocket. He is trying to get 2nd place in the Lunar Landing Challenge, and is certainly developing the equipment and skills necessary for some interesting rocket technology. While I don't expect this group to get into orbit any time soon, they are certainly somebody to watch even if they end up going somewhere else or merging their efforts with another group.