Pandemics in perspective

Joshua Silsby, Alden, NY — Fri, 01 May 2009 01:21:12 GMT

Speculation: People did it through genetic tampering with pig DNA to resist other diseases, such as edema, which is caused by E. Coli. The technology to do this kind of DNA work en masse really didn't exist prior to the late 90's, which is when this article says that swine flu (H1N1) began undergoing more rapid mutations. It's plausible (I think, I'm no recombinant DNA specialist), given that most Science Fiction is based on real science.

Pandemics in perspective

Bronwyn, Chicago, IL — Fri, 01 May 2009 01:36:26 GMT

Perspective is exactly what is lacking in many news reports about the current H1N1 flu outbreak- The above is packed full of interesting and useful information, sensibly framed. I'm so tired of reading the same thing over and over, poorly written and poorly targeted. This is a great step up from the general media coverage.

Pandemics in perspective

David Peters, Allison Park, PA — Fri, 01 May 2009 02:37:25 GMT

Please keep this situation in perspective.
My wife and I already see signs of panic and/or fear of liability. My wife's University has cancelled graduation: Slippery Rock University in Slippery Rock Pennsylvania. We suspect do to exposure to litigation if anyone would contract or die from swine flu. How many people have been diagnosed with cancer or other known life threatning diseases this week; with little media attention. We hope and pray that everyone wiil keep this situation in proper perspective, most of all our governmental representatives.

Pandemics in perspective

anonymous — Fri, 01 May 2009 02:50:18 GMT

Hate to be paranoid but the comment that something happened ten years ago that cahnged the evolution swine flue has gotten my attention - Bilogical warfair. How many cases have been reported in the middle east?

Pandemics in perspective

Bruce, Cape May, New Jersey — Fri, 01 May 2009 02:57:53 GMT

This is what I like best about the web. Sometimes there's a column or article with a ton of relevant information to bury yourself in. (No pun intended.)

Pandemics in perspective

Andy Motherway — Fri, 01 May 2009 03:14:05 GMT

Ya know, if it weren't for twitter and the swine flu, just what would you all talk about? I am so offended by the irresponsible coverage of this whole thing.

Thanks for writing about perspective, God knows no one else is.

Pandemics in perspective

Robert, Fort Worth, TX — Fri, 01 May 2009 03:29:34 GMT

We in Fort Worth Texas (where our ISD canceled school for 80,000 students for 10 days) are wavering between "better safe than sorry" and "over-reaction". People are nervous and many are asking if there are far many more cases in Mexico than documented or officially confirmed.

Pandemics in perspective

Just Curious from Texas — Fri, 01 May 2009 04:00:35 GMT

A lot of good info but very little new information.
Is it just by chance this out break accured when Obama was
to be there? Or how is the gentic computation of the swine portion
Of this virus from Eurasian spieces of swine not Central American veriaty? Add in why is the Avian portion of this virus being down played in all the reports. Some tough questions need to be asked and no one seems to be asking them.

Pandemics in perspective

Arnold Ziffel — Fri, 01 May 2009 04:08:06 GMT

"Something happened 10 years ago, where the whole evolution of swine flu changed and became very dynamic." Isn't that about the time Denny's came out with the Grand Slam Breakfast? Makes you think, don't it?

Pandemics in perspective

Alan Monro — Fri, 01 May 2009 05:44:28 GMT

Don't worry , its only natures way of fixing world overpopulation . Its very sad but true .

Pandemics in perspective

anonymous-healthcare worker — Fri, 01 May 2009 06:31:14 GMT

Is it possible that this flu could meet up with h5n1 virus & combine to become very deadly???

Pandemics in perspective

anonymous-healthcare worker — Fri, 01 May 2009 06:40:38 GMT

What are the stats on persons that got the earlier summer and springs versions getting reinfected with the deadly strain. Did this occur? I read about a non- hemorrhagic virus that some persons became infected with and survived, but then when reinfected got the hemorrhagic version and didn't survive. Could something like this happen with the change in the influenza strains??

Pandemics in perspective

Endo, Co — Fri, 01 May 2009 08:14:58 GMT

After West Nile, SARS, Bird Flu, who still actually believes and listens to media fear mongering? While I do not agree with Obama on much. I have to say the way he is handling this farce of a pandemic is something that I support.

Pandemics in perspective

ditch — Fri, 01 May 2009 10:00:24 GMT

"Perspective is exactly what is lacking in many news reports about the current H1N1 flu outbreak- The above is packed full of interesting and useful information, sensibly framed."
- Bronwyn, Chicago, IL

Indeed, this the kind of reporting we want. thanks , Alan Boyle! And the photo tells a story of its own

"Something happened 10 years ago..."
How about bio-warfare work getting out of the lab, again?
How about the widespread adoption of factory farming methods with thousands of animals in overcrowded and filthy conditions?

Pandemics in perspective

Ray, Melbourne, Australia — Fri, 01 May 2009 10:21:33 GMT

For so small a blip this 'pandemic' is causing a rather high degree of panic amongst those all around the world. I appreciate your wonderful efforts at appeasing those amongst us who need appeasing. Your perspective is very professional and informative. Not a bunch of rhetoric aimed at alarming the ill informed. Congratulations!!

Pandemics in perspective

Bohdan Szejner — Fri, 01 May 2009 11:25:15 GMT

The causes of pig-bird-human virus mutations can well be psychological. Humanity has been bombarded with Darwin's theory, and with claims that we descend from animals! There is an interconnection between all Nature's forces and human mind. It is an unknown, hidden connection. mature seems to echo what our minds think! For ultimately, mind is spirit [Geist]... and the Nature's forces are spirit! You get the connection! My theory may sound outlandish for the simpleminded, but I believe that it is true: we have damaged and impoverished Nature with our anti-God beliefs!

Pandemics in perspective

Tom Nault — Fri, 01 May 2009 11:43:36 GMT

I recall health experts in New Delhi being unable to figure out why residents of poor areas of the city got more sick during seasonal overflows of sewage drains than did residents of rich areas; they were out there in the streets getting samples of it from each area.. until someone pointed out that the sewage was the same but that it was the people who were different; poor nutrition leads to poor(er) health even when there is no outbreak.
That said, read any first-hand account of the progression of the 1918 pandemic from spring to late summer and feel the chill...

Pandemics in perspective

Anonymus II, Pompano, Florida . — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:15:45 GMT

Paranoid or not, how many cases have been reported in the middle east outside of Israel?. What is the possibility of a laboratory virus been planted in Veracruz, Mexico by terrorists, knowning of the open traffic to U.S.A.? . None?, 1%, 50%? .

Pandemics in perspective

no thanks, calgary, alberta — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:37:08 GMT

I'm scared :(
because im just a kid..

Pandemics in perspective

anonymous — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:41:35 GMT

If pigs and birds can get what about dogs and cats! Should I limit where I walk my pets?

Pandemics in perspective

Tad, Houston, Texas — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:42:31 GMT

I have to agree with Alan Monro, disease keeps us from over crowding it's sad, but true.

This flu is really no big deal, the scare is that it's new, that all. Now, if it makes another mutation soon, it could be very very deadly, but as of right not, it's as harmless as seasonal flu, if a bit more virolent.

Pandemics in perspective

TG, Grayling, MI — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:53:39 GMT

I think the 20 to 50 age group is hit the hardest now (and also 1918) because those most heathy don't feel sick enough soon enough. The disease progresses too far before they realize they need help - pretty clever, those viri.

Pandemics in perspective

fishlady Springfield, Va — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:58:47 GMT

I find it interesting that the largest group of people affected by a pandemic virus are between the ages of 20 and 50...the working population that just cannot stay home when they are sick...spreads like wildfire then. Perhaps companies that look down on people who call in sick or even allow those sick people to come to work to "share" their virus should be held accountable.

Pandemics in perspective

Rita, FTW, TX — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:00:50 GMT

well, ten years ago, did they start enhancing the pigs with anything different?

Pandemics in perspective

Cammie, Savannah, Ga — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:07:37 GMT

I wanted to agree with Alan Monro, when I first heard about this I thought the same thing...overpopulation. This is a horrible thing that is going on and I pray it doesn't turn out as bad as it sounds. We just had our first confirmed case here in Georgia yesterday after getting 10 confirmed cases in South Carolina just the day before. I am very nervous but I must say, if it's my time to go I can't stop it. God Bless you all!

Pandemics in perspective

mid western science teacher — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:18:33 GMT

Viruses are humanity's only natural predators. The best evolved viruses are non lethal and don't cause extreme illness, this one is a baby and will probably become milder as it goes, althouhg I feel the need to point out that most of those infected have mild illnesses and while lots of deaths have been reported out of Mexico, we don't have numbers of pnumonia and flu deaths in a normal year to compare them to. That, combined with the fact that Mexico has substandard medical pracitises and sanitiation, and I think its safe to say that there is a large amount of overreaction going on.

Pandemics in perspective

Ron — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:19:24 GMT

I know that we use antibiotics in the beef industry. Do we also use antibiotics in the pork industry? If so, could the use of antibiotics have anything to do with the change in the evolution of swine flu?

Pandemics in perspective

anoymous,Florence,Ky — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:30:51 GMT

We are going to get wacked one of these days.An old favorite will rear its ugly head.No longer immunizing kids for smallpox is a mistake and so are the kooks that don't immunize because little Timmy might cry.The dynamicness of viruses is amazing and I agree that some of the genetic recoding to produce larger and more productive livestock is going to accelerate these mutations.Be careful humanity!

Pandemics in perspective

Darrell Messbarger — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:53:48 GMT

We have read reports of hundreds of people in Mexico who have contracted this virus and the numbers of deaths that have resulted. My question is, what are the demographics of this outbreak? Are these victims city dwellers, rural workers, what? Were those that died children, the old, or some other segment of their populace? It is difficult to translate the danger factor when we are not completely sure of the actual epidemiology of the matter.

Many people die each year, worldwide, of some type of contagious disease. Panic, of the sort we are beginning to see now, can be relieved with more useful information being disseminated, not the sensational/tabloid type of reporting that we so often see.

Pandemics in perspective

Joe Donuts, Donutville, Il — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:09:24 GMT

They said the U.S. would have a black president when pigs fly- Well swine flu!! HAHAHA a little humor to brighten your day- also funny how the Prez wants nationwide govenmental health care and with a pandemic on our hands maybe they can rairoad this through?

Pandemics in perspective

Patricia Seeley, Toronto, Ontario, Canada — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:32:50 GMT

One news source (The Real News dot com) links the increased mutation rate with NAFTA and the startup of "factory farms" in Mexico. Our cruelty to animals comes back to haunt us.

Pandemics in perspective

GWD, Hanford, CA — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:36:59 GMT

Anyone ever see The Happening??? Oh yeah.. it's natures way all right.

Pandemics in perspective

anonymous. — Fri, 01 May 2009 16:22:04 GMT

I'm answering my own question above. The only reported cases in the Middle East is one in Israel. There are no reported cases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran or Syria. I also found a references on the net coming out of the Middle East that this flu is God punishing the infidels.

By the way, like what was stated above - great reporting. This article really helps to put pandemic and common variety flus into perspective.

Pandemics in perspective

Dr. Hunt, Pennsylvania — Fri, 01 May 2009 16:57:36 GMT

Good news: This swine flu is sensitive to antiviral drugs and it seems that the virus is getting weaker; it killed more in mexico, and as time goes on, is killing fewer affected people (opposite of the Spanish flu of 1918). Bad news: Flu virus can mutate fast--much faster than we can make new antiviral drugs or vaccines. So if it decides to get worse, all we can do is deadbolt the door--on our homes and on our borders.

Pandemics in perspective

anonymous, Boston, MA — Fri, 01 May 2009 17:07:57 GMT

Given that the current version of the swine flu could mutate and become as virulent as the later-stage flu of 1918, should we purposefully get infected now to establish immunity?

Pandemics in perspective

Ron, Tempe AZ — Fri, 01 May 2009 18:40:18 GMT

I agree with Darrell. Who are the people that died in Mexico? Is it a situation where a teenage kid went to school and came home sick and died? Or is it a case where an elderly person with a bad immune system picked up a virus and died? There are WAY too many unanswered questions.

If anything positive comes out of this media storm, it will be that Americans are well prepared for a situation like this in the future. Although I disagree with all of the media hype, the message is getting out quickly and people are taking precautions.

Pandemics in perspective

Rob, Seattle — Fri, 01 May 2009 18:41:38 GMT

I would speculate that it's a combination of social demographic, sanitation infrastructure, and local air quality that has resulted in the high Mexico city death rate.

Mexico City is amoung the worst cases of air pollution in the world. This can be very damaging to lung tissue combined with the effect of viral attack should result in a much higher than normal rate of pnuemonia.

Pandemics in perspective

Publichealth Maven , Montana — Fri, 01 May 2009 19:02:25 GMT

"with claims we decended from animals"?? Um, yes you are an animal. Sorry to tell you the obvious Bohdan Szejner.
And no, antibiotic overuse is a problem but this is a virus and antibiotics don't work on them at all. Antivirals on the other hand....?

Pandemics in perspective

Chris — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:17:05 GMT

If forced to guess I'd say Factory Farming. Factory farming of hogs has seemed to get larger and larger with more and more animals closer and closer together. So when there is an outbreak among pigs there are a lot more targets for infection. The more infected pigs, the more copies of the virus are created and the more chance there is for mutation. Piglets and sows are sold to other farms potentially taking the virus to new large pools of infection where more mutation occurs very quickly. In short, I suspect it's the size of the pool that the virus is thrown into that has changed.

Pandemics in perspective

Anonymous, Ohio — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:55:19 GMT

The first reported death from this flu was a two-year-old Mexican boy who already had respiratory issues. There have been reports speculating that the issue is more severe in Mexico due to the lack of good health care and poor living conditions for a large portion of the country. I have yet to see anything about specifics though.

Personally, I think there's way too much focus on this issue that really hasn't affected that many people. Wash your hands and don't let someone else cough in your face. It's as simple as that. Can we move on to more important things now?

Pandemics in perspective

knowledge is power — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:08:15 GMT

People- if you want to know more about the 1918 flu (like, did it confer immunity? not known), click on some of the links in the article. Do a little research - there is a huge amount of info out there if you take the time to look for it. We won't know how bad this is going to get until it does; if it makes you feel any better, buy some canned soup and put it in the closet. And give the conspiracy theories a rest, please - this is an anticipated biological phenomenon, not a spiritual or political one.

Pandemics in perspective

Troy, Wenonah, NJ — Sat, 02 May 2009 05:06:41 GMT

Wow, as I am currently reading through these posts, it's just amazing what people will say. I read one that talked about "biological warfair", are you serious? because it really makes sense "Let's go get a lot of people sick, some may die, but if they get help they will all be ok", really doesn't sound like something a terrorist organization would say. COME ON people, let's stay in the "real" world. This is just another way for Media to try and keep the masses scared. Just a few years ago it was kidnapping, then I started seeing people walking around with their kids on leashes. People really have to start putting this stuff in line with their own lives and not some ugly fairy tale pushed on them by a third party.

Pandemics in perspective

Andy Motherway — Sat, 02 May 2009 09:39:43 GMT

Still, you (MSNBC) are doing nothing about reporting the facts of this story... sure you do that eventually, only way after you scare every one with that idiot from the U of M, who is only too happy to be on camera... how dare you (MSNBC)...

Alan, I have a lot of respect for you. But I am sure you have no power whatsoever to make the flu story a fact-based one, rather than a ratings based one. God what an embarrassing thing for you all in the national media when this turns out to be nothing... nothing at all.

Pandemics in perspective

Guran Walker — Sat, 02 May 2009 09:49:03 GMT

Is there some dramatic shift in the contents of the offal being fed pigs today? Or within the last ten years? I mean, they feed animals the dead remains of chickens, along with their droppings, as 'additives' to their diet. We think of pig-slop as 'pig-slop'. Those would be the most elite pigs in this day and age that were still fed on traditional pig-slop.

Pandemics in perspective

E Poe, LAs Vegas, Nvada — Sat, 02 May 2009 22:21:02 GMT

In 11918 close to 100 million people died of the pandemic flu - they attribute partial of that to the extreme travel happening because of WW1. With Travel so much more prevelant now, what can this do in our time. Even if medication could be cut in half ,would only 50 million die? Or if by 75% only 25 million would die? These are NOT small numbers. Grow up people, you are being warned. TAKE REAL GOOD CARE and survive to comment on other subjects.

Pandemics in perspective

g g, Orlando, Florida — Sun, 03 May 2009 15:10:09 GMT

The 1918 Spanish flu came around twice - the first time it wasn't deadly, then a couple months later it was deadly. Does anyone know if the people who caught it on the first go around were immune from it on the second go around?

Pandemics in perspective

the same anonymous, paranoid crackpot :) — Mon, 04 May 2009 01:09:28 GMT

To those of you that aren't taking this seriously, note the time frame of the "1918 - 1919" pandemic. It lasted two years. We are in about the third week and the cases in the U.S. have more than doubled every week so far. So far we are seeing a geometric progression with an interval of less than one week but I will assume a one week interval for simplicities sake. If the same rate of spread continues as what occured last week we could have 226/100 = 2.26 * 226 = 510 cases by the end of next week. I'll leave it to you to carry the math out for 101 more weeks. It will be a very, very large number. Just double 510 101 more times and you will get an approximation of what the number could be.

As reported in this article, in the 1918 to 1919 pandemic their were 550,000 deaths (not cases) in the U.S and 20 million to 40 million deaths (not cases)worldwide. There must have been many, many more cases where people didn't die. I wonder what the rate of spread was then? We have much more domestic and world travel now so we also have the ability to spread it much faster.

What we want to see is the rate of spread decreasing. Although they are trying to develope a vacination we currenlty don't have one. And once they develope one they will have to produce it in mass quantities. That means we currently have no medical means to control the spread and it will be a while before we get one. We can only treat it.

The good news is the death rate is not increasing in the U.S. and the statistic look very good in that respect. As a matter of fact, we have only one death and the child Texas who died was not an American citizen. He had resperatory problems and he was comming here to be treated. However, he did spend a day in a mall in Texas before getting to the doctor. The numbers of cases in Texas is currently the second largest to New York.

We seem to be succesfully treating it and we can also take comfort in that. We also have much better medical technology and we have much better technology to tract the cases than we did in 1918. That is also a source of comfort.

To Troy, who is being derogatory about this possibly being biological warfare, terrorist do not need to kill everybody to attack us. They can be quite effective by simply disrupting our economy and creating panic. In an already devastated American Economy President Obama just put aside 1.5 billion more to deal with this. Also, all the people that get sick need to stay away form their jobs and schools while they are sick. How easy do you think it is going to be to get peole to stay home from the job they have when people are already hurting financialy. What is the ecomic impact if this continues to grow geometrically?

When the Twin Towers went down and the Pentagon was hit there were around 4 thousands deaths, that is not a big number for a war, but the impact on the economy was devastating. If the fourth plane would have hit the White House, as the terrorist intented, I believe the economic impact would have been much worse. Osama Bin Scumbag and company were not trying for mass deaths. They were trying to disrupt our economy and they were pretty succesful. Troy, did you comprehend the symbolic gesture and potential economic impact of their 4 targets? Our financial center, our military center and our political center?

Also, President Obama recently praised the Bush administartion for stock piling anti-viral medicines. Why do you think the Bush administration stock piled anti-viral medications? Do you think that might have been done as a defense against a biological warfare attack - duh. Sometime you have to read between the lines.

Take a look at the world maps tracking this. A week later and still no cases reported in the terrorist nations of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afganistan or Saudi Arabia. Maybe they were prepared? It is in every country surrounding them. In Egypt, although no cases are reported there, they decided to slaughter all the Christian pig farmers pigs, economically devasting already dirt poor christians in that country. It didn't appear they tested for cases first in the articles I read.

So Troy, how do you explain not having any cases in the terrorist countries?

I agree, lets not get carried away with this thought process and let's not panic. That is what terrorists want us to do, but let's not stick our heads in the sand either. That is what our government was doing when the Twin Towers went down.

You might also note that this outbreak occured right after a change in the White House administration. 9/11 also happened shortly after a change in the White House administration. That would be a good time to attack - don't you think? Apparently the terrorist thought so. I just don't want us to be caught with our pants down again. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

Also, do you think we might have upset the terrorist a bit more by being in Iraq for 8 year? Do you think the Bush administration was thinking about that when they stockpiled anti-viral medications?

Pandemics in perspective

Stuffy Nose Yuma, Arizona — Mon, 04 May 2009 08:38:04 GMT

All this pandemonium over a stuffy nose...get over it you'll only die of pigs flu. :)

Pandemics in perspective

budg — Mon, 04 May 2009 23:02:05 GMT

I think it's intresting that the swine flu started in Mexico, where no pigs have the virus. More interesting is the fact that Baxter Labs has a large factory there. These would be the people that sent live H5N1 in flu vaccine. Without so much as a slap on the wrist, they are now front runners in the race for swine flu vaccine.

Pandemics in perspective

Brian V. Phoenix, AZ — Tue, 05 May 2009 01:01:53 GMT

The change that happened 10 years ago was the mass introduction of antibiotics and antiviral (including specific anti-flu treatment) into pigs' (and all other livestock) normal regimen of hormones. At the point that they have all been "pretreated" for all of the normal "bugs," farmers and ranchers encouraged only the extraordinary virus and bacteria to grow and multiply. This is what has caused the perfect breeding ground for "pandemic" diseases (H5N1, West Nile), which is why for the time that these diseases became prevalent (the past 10 years,) there has been little affect on the animal population by typical disease

Pandemics in perspective

Tim — Tue, 05 May 2009 16:02:28 GMT

"My theory may sound outlandish for the simpleminded, but I believe that it is true: we have damaged and impoverished Nature with our anti-God beliefs!"

I hope Bohdan Szejner is being facetious. Otherwise, I'm going to have to recommend that you go back to the Middle Ages. Try leeches, self-flagellation, and prayer next time you get sick, and let us know how that turns out.

Pandemics in perspective

tn limerick,pa — Tue, 05 May 2009 16:27:39 GMT

The world is not overpopulated. The enitire population of the earth can inhabit the old yugoslavia with a population density of manhattan. Seriously the earth has more than enough room. The great lakes produce enough fresh water a day to give each person ~90 gallons of water. That's just the great lakes! We can grow enough food in the area the size of Europe.. The population will cap out at about 10-12 billion at that point we cannot reproduce quicker than we die.. This virus is nothing but the flu, nothing more nothing less.

Pandemics in perspective

or,tel aviv,israel — Tue, 05 May 2009 23:58:52 GMT

i think the swine flu is not so dangerous,it's like regular winter flu and is going for one week...

Pandemics in perspective

Laupers San Antonio,TX — Thu, 14 May 2009 05:56:38 GMT

Well, I was thinking the same as budg. I read about Baxter sending the live H5N1 in FLU VACCINES!! and then saying it was a mistake when every step they take in creating and bottling the vials is very well documented and observed/supervised. And their response was "OOPS". I know that i do not want any vaccinations that Baxter labs have manufactured. How can we feel safe after that "Accident"?