Political markets have spoken

Joe Duffy, Roswell, GA — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:53:01 GMT

You forgot the most important: sportsbook odds. http://www.offshoreinsiders.com/index.php?PageID=97

It looks like Obama wins in an electoral landslide

Political markets have spoken

John Doe Jacksonville, Florida — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:57:49 GMT

It could be the electronic voting machines are giving a false vote. One voter thinks that he/she is casting a vote for Obama and the machine is rigged to cast tht vote for MCCain. We are watching and we have heard of this in many states!

Political markets have spoken

Pat, Atlanta GA. — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:00:29 GMT

"It all goes to show that there's no such thing as a sure thing, in the markets as well as in politics."

That sentence pretty much tells it all. Even though all signs may point in one direction, it can, without reason, shift to the other direction. What's that line..."The only sure things in life are death and taxes?" If we could always accurately predict the future, then football analysts, weathermen, and economists would make much more money. On the flip side, bookies and lawyers probably would not make as much :).

Political markets have spoken

ken pollock, montreal — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:10:59 GMT

When is reality going to be reality. The time for change has come. the time for a new and clear view on the future has been born. nothing that the republican party can do to change this is possible. The democrats have done their job. let us re-unite at this important time in history and let us educate the world that surrounds us that the USA has seen the promised land. may we all understand what is needed to make na free world freee and how we must act together to make it happen. a vote for Obama gives us a chance to make our freedon believes rise again so that the USA puts their foot down and states that we shall overcome, that we shall no longer accept the status quo as a direction for our believes. God bless the USA

Political markets have spoken

CTurner, Durham, NC — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:15:04 GMT

The "wisdom of the markets," eh? In the real world, the very substantial number of investors who incorrectly predicted that stocks and real estate would rise forever lost a ton of money.

Political markets have spoken

sarah, norfolk VA — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:22:23 GMT

The race isn't over until every ballot has been counted and the fat lady sings.......

Political markets have spoken

Nigel Eccles — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:24:00 GMT

The markets are still predicting that McCain has a 10% chance. That doesn't mean he's a sure loser. It means he is a 9/1 outsider. You don't have to follow the horses to know that 9/1 shots sometimes win (and the do it roughly 10% of the time).

The Hubdub prediction market also has Obama at 90%: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election

Political markets have spoken

Tom, Atlanta, Georgia — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:24:48 GMT

Just like in sports one has to account for the "fix".
In elections it is not who votes but who counts the votes. So..., if the vote counters are paid enough to for a McCain win, then the sorry but the votes wont matter.

Political markets have spoken

fischer a Torronto, Canada — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:36:48 GMT

I'm a card carrying Republican and have in early voting cast my vote for John McCain last week. American public, however, is apparently disappointed with the outgoing one of ten worst of the 42 US Presidents as judged by a panel of historians according to this week's on line edition of Times. People are looking for a return of American values of decency, honesty, respect for humanity and, more importantly, a change that will enable the currently dormant democratic traditions of our nation to flourish. May be it's time to embrace some human values of justice, transparency and regard for animate as well as inanimate inhabitants of our small world by electing as president the relatively unknown Mr. Obama.

Political markets have spoken

ss jackson reno nevada — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:36:58 GMT

Nobody can beat a deliberately dumbed downed
electorate, via years of NEA and state education
unions--a press similarly raised and the popular belief that a vote against Obama is to exhibit your racism.It is truly the perfect storm for Obama, created by years of propaganda by the press and the Democratic party. In just a few months we will realize Mr. Obama knows nothing about how the economy works, how wealth is created (so that it can be redistributed) and the meaning and consequences of war. Go ahead voters, vote the way you have be conditioned to, just a surely as pavlov dogs.
ssj.

Political markets have spoken

Jonathan S, Palo Alto, California — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:42:22 GMT

Here's another graph, showing the S&P 500 crashing as Obama's vote share increases:
http://lpl8.com/IEMvSP500.jpg
So yes, the political markets are speaking.

Political markets have spoken

Jon, Nederland Colorado — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:06:40 GMT

All I want is a president who believes in science and will make thoughtful and informed decisions. If McCain and Palin are elected, I fear we will be re-opening the Salem witch trials.

Political markets have spoken

Jim S. Richmond, Virginia — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:16:29 GMT

George Bush beat McCain via questionable tactics in 2000 and he has beaten him with his legacy in 2008. I can just see W sitting with Cheney saying "How can we make sure John does not have a chance at a weekend comeback? Sure, Dick, you endorse him!!"

Political markets have spoken

Web Smith, Los gatos, CA — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:35:13 GMT

Congratulations.

You are about to elect a President who will give you a bigger government and more spending. Your new President will give amnesty to millions of illegal aliens, drastically increase the number of H-1B visas, and eliminate E-verify at a time when millions of American Citizens are out of work. Your new Commander in Chief will keep American soldiers in Iraq against your will. Your new Chief Executive will borrow, spend, give away, and waste billions of dollars when the national debt is passing $12 trillion. Against your wishes your new President helped Bush give $1 trillion to the banks as his parting gift. No matter how much you object, he will not listen and will continue to implement his own agenda. It doesn't matter if it's McCain or Obama.

http://ewebsmith.com/Finance/notlistening.html

Political markets have spoken

Daniel Gongora — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:58:17 GMT

Why is it always the media's fault when your horse don't win? Sounds like a whole lot of whinning going on. You might try accepting losing with a little more grace. You insult yourself and your brothers and sisters of this Land of Freedom by your comments. What about 'Country First', brother?

Political markets have spoken

paul — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:59:36 GMT

Job growth is needed to improve the economy. You don't create new jobs by making it harder to do business in the U.S. Americans need to back the candidate who is "pro-business", not "against" business. Think about it.

Political markets have spoken

An actual scientist in Indiana — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 01:00:39 GMT

Jonathan in Palo Alto said, " Here's another graph, showing the S&P 500 crashing as Obama's vote share increases...:"

The same correlation could be expresssed as follows; "Here's another graph, showing Obama's vote share increasing as the S&P 500 crashed..."

Correlation is not cause; the statement is equally true in both directions. The S&P crashing can in NO way be considered a market "speaking" to Obama's popularity.

Political markets have spoken

DDH, DesMoines, Iowa — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 01:18:33 GMT

sarah, norfolk VA-
"The race isn't over until every ballot has been counted and the fat lady sings......."
-
I would add: ...Or perhaps the Supreme Court decides enough ballots have been counted and the fat lady's song is running long.

Political markets have spoken

Dave, OK — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 01:27:36 GMT

SS Jackson, you seem to be exhibiting as pavlovian a response as the rest of us. It's just you have been trained by a different trainer: one that wants you to froth at the mouth every time you hear the word "Obama." I feel sorry for those who will be rabidly salivating in a rage after the results come in tomorrow night. I hope you can get acclimated and lose the frothing response quickly --- sometime during the next four years. The markets don't always give perfect predictions, but the message is seldom so clear as it is this time around: Obama is much more likely to win this election.

Political markets have spoken

Myra, Cookeville, TN — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:25:37 GMT

If Obama wins, many will feel very, very well and excited. He's promised so much. He won't fulfill very many of his promises, but it doesn't matter because he is just a mirage. He has the ability to make people believe him no matter what he does or says. Watch out America! How long does a mirage last?

Political markets have spoken

cyberbian, Boston, MA — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:10:12 GMT

Many people feel they must vote for the winner or they are wasting their vote. It is an insane premis perpetuated by the incumbents who traditionally have the advantage. Expect Obama to win by a landslide and McCain to get attendance in the voting booth like he is getting at his rallys. Republicans will stay home in droves, surfing the newly discovered "World Wide Web Tubes" for a new party.

Political markets have spoken

Hope — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:21:03 GMT

Just an aside.... I find it very interesting how the democrats (at least in this blog) are the "lets all get along and come together" people. If I remember correctly after the last election ALL of the remarks made by Dems were hatefull (and that is being polite about it) not to just the man elected but to those that did excersize their rights and voted for him. When I say hatefull I mean down right gutteral ditest and evil. I agree that if we are unfortunate enough to have Obama as a president, I hope against all hope that we Repubs can respond with the maturity of intelect to turn this chicken s**t situation into Chicken Soup. Fellow repubs unite and drive our agendas regardless of whos in office.... and remember those that sit there, represent all of us not just the people who voted for them!

Political markets have spoken

Bill, New York — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:26:59 GMT

Betfair's been the one to watch in the past IMO and had £13m ($20m) bet so far on their 'Next President' market.

They've got a non-betting site with some interesting graphs here showing how it's changed over time www.betfairpredicts.com

Political markets have spoken

Bob, Flemington, NJ — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:53:07 GMT

Yes, McCain is catching up to Obama. He is also catching up to a beam of light. (His time is at a standstill and his mass has decreased to zero.)

Political markets have spoken

Mike, Orlnado FL — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:24:20 GMT

It seems like the pollsters are not considering the possibility that regardless of who appears to win there will be a legal challenge due to the very high number of voter fraud charges coming out of the woodwork. This election will very probably be decided by the judiciary and not the popular vote or electoral college.

Political markets have spoken

Chris Johnson, Atlanta, GA — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 18:07:16 GMT

Hmm. The TV Networks must make quite a bit of money in paid advertising for election night coverage. Don't forget they are running their own big business with a vested interest in presidential results.

Big oil? Big Industry? Special interest... How about "BIG MEDIA"

Political markets have spoken

John Doe, Ohio — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:13:46 GMT

What is with you liberals? The internet is turning into propaganda front for liberals. Just like the liberals to pay people to sit at a computer all day and write propaganda repsonses to every web blog in the entire world. I have never heard such media biased, propaganda spreading, agenda driven, slanted and one sided crap comments in my life until I started reading blogs on the net. Socialism is not the change we need. Here is an idea... all you under privileged ethnic people... get a job! Mcdonald's is a job! Take any job you can get... People are not going to hand you money for doing nothing! Oh wait.... Obama will.

Political markets have spoken

Rich — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:16:19 GMT

Why is it a handfull of states can elect a president. We need a reformed electoral college.

Political markets have spoken

Soft Thunder, Germantown, MD — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:45:44 GMT

Mike of Orlando, FL----I wouldn't count on it.

Political markets have spoken

Mayra Rzeslawski,Nogales,Arizona — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:52:32 GMT

Why should we rig the votes?It is not fair.It is the same thing as saying that the people dont count.Many people do this because of the stupid money.Whats so important about this anyway?

Political markets have spoken

Joe the Obama Supporter — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:05:10 GMT

America is tired of "government as usual." By taking a page out of Karl Rove's book, McCain showed that he would perpetuate "government as usual" (as well as being willing to do or say anything to win). Country First? I think not. More like "McCain First/Billionaires Second/Average Citizens Last."

Political markets have spoken

Jake doe — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:48:58 GMT

This is ridiculous. Everyone these days has a problem. Liberal or democrat. If you are speaking of one party's problems and not speaking your own party's problems then its hypocrisy to even explain and determine why YOURs is better and why THEIRS isnt. its a waste of time politics sometimes. But i guess if there was not at least two radical groups there would be no balance. A lot of things are double edged swords

Political markets have spoken

Jonathan S, Palo Alto, California — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:45:56 GMT

"An actual scientist in Indiana" missed the point. The IEM vote share isn't the real vote share - it's traders' expectation of the final vote share.

I guess what upset the "actual scientist" is the idea that traders might expect an Obama presidency to have negative effects on the stock market. But the president-elect's pronouncements on trade, taxation, and labor policy signal a strongly anti-business administration.

Political markets have spoken

kellldavis — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:32:54 GMT

congrastion OBAMA you out did mccain i in thirdgrade i doint know how to spell congrastin

Political markets have spoken

Radu, Sandwich, MA — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:52:58 GMT

Jonathan in Palo Alto said, " Here's another graph, showing the S&P 500 crashing as Obama's vote share increases...:"

Not sure what's the origin of that? Statistical correlations need to be further validated - actually there is a funny example of false statistical correlation: town A has more stork nests then in town B that -> explains the higher birth rate in town A.
By the way, yesterday 11/4 - election day, there was no secret who was going to win the election - market went up some 300 points: would one conclude that market is happy with that outcome?!