Bye-bye to the bounce?

Craig Sanders — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 00:27:24 GMT

Why would McCain bother to send it in? His campaign is not about issues.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Viola, Hudson Valley, NY — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 01:39:38 GMT

I wouldn't expect McSame to get ANY bounce whatsoever. For the "speech of his life", he responded with the most incredibly moribund, ineffective and incredibly self serving bland droll I've ever heard from a politician EVER. Shame on the media (Jeffrey Toobin on CNN EXCLUDED) of complicit deceit in not calling this speech a total shame. He is a discredit to anyone wearing a uniform with his chronic POW pandering...Oh BOO HOO HOO. That was then John - what have you done for US lately???

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Morton Redner, Simi Valley, CA — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 01:44:59 GMT

I don't know where you're getting your information. A visit to pollster.com will show you the major polls give Obama a substantial post-convention bounce, in the neighborhood of 5-9 points! The contest may have been close before the conventions. But now analysts generally acknowledge that Obama is ahead in the neighborhood of ~48-43 over McCain, and building a steady and growing lead. Let's just hope it continues.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

No interest in hearing Mc Rhetoric — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:34:22 GMT

The reason McCain hasn't replied is because he keeps changing his stance on the issues....whichever way the Republican Puppet Master pulls him.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Bruce Willis — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:45:52 GMT

The only polls that count are the ones the voters make in November. Polls are mostly wrong so why bother with them.

MC CAIN + PALIN = A SOLID TEAM, HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY

Bye-bye to the bounce?

N. Jones, Portland, OR — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:50:51 GMT

I suspect the lack of post-convention bounces in candidate popularity is due to our extremely polarized electorate. Extremism breeds extremism. When there is an extremist administration in office, we all cling to our side, right or left, with an intense fierceness, even convincing ourselves that the other side is "evil." There are no post-convention bounces because most people have already made up their minds, and have no intention, no matter what happens, of changing them. I know I have.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Alan Boyle — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:56:22 GMT

Right, Morton, I'm not talking about the polls here, but rather the markets. The analogy would be, let's say, earnings vs. share price. Let's say Applesoft comes out with a new iWidget that increases the company's earnings by 20 percent. That's good, right? But suppose the traders were expecting an increase of 40 percent? They would bid down the stock, even though the company registered an earnings rise.

Similarly, traders could discount a bounce in the polls because they are looking at a bigger picture and see that the fundamentals don't necessarily justify increasing their "investment." I know this sounds like gambling, but the technique has been found to be pretty accurate...

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf

... And that's why economists and political scientists are studying the prediction-market phenomenon.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Alan Boyle — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:58:23 GMT

By the way, I'm not likely to approve comments that don't reference the original item. So comments that don't even make an effort to refer to the issue of political polling or ScienceDebate 2008's campaign won't be showing up.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

TruThat! NC — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:59:22 GMT

Science issues and Adances in technologies are subjects that the GOP just don't believe to be a priority, relevant or more important than war or Drilling for oil.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Cyndi, Utah — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:20:57 GMT

I wasn't expecting any bounce for McCain and Palin. This was especially so after Wednesday. After she delivered her speech, it was obvious that the only people excited were the folks at the convention who had nothing to cheer for all year long. Infact there is a good chance that she repulsed swing and independant voters with her rabid attitude. McCain tried to do some damage control the next day but it was too late. The hope to catch some late undecided voters failed. No one wants a hot headed, disrespectful person in the White House whether man, woman or pitbull. Now unfortunately, McCain is in a dilemma because he cant be all nice and adoring to independants because his deputy has already extinguished that avenue.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Republican VN Era Veteran — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:41:48 GMT

The idea of markets - or more broadly; predictive techniques - such as the ones outlined in the article have a surprisingly rich history of success.

I am reminded of the application of similar principles in recovering a lost thermonuclear weapon off of the coast of Spain in the 1960s. The efforts led by Dr. John Craven, applied Bayesian search theory - in essence with input data points strikingly similar to how bets that are placed on financial markets.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Jim in Phoenix — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:07:02 GMT

You HAVE to know Alan that polling is averaged over 3 days, McCain's bounce or lack thereof won't be fully known until early next week. This is the type of bias and hack reporting that upsets conservatives like myself.

[ALAN ADDS: I hope I made clear that I'm not talking about traditional political polling, but rather about the money-based prediction markets. This is why I've made no reference to the tracking polls, or the fact that the "bounce" in the traditional polls may show up next week. In the markets, the enthusiasm factor that pollsters pick up on through later surveys has already been accounted for ... and discounted. However, as Justin Wolfers told me, it's quite possible that traders will see something in the polls that impress them to the extent that the trading values actually do rise in response.

[Someone else asked whether such markets can be manipulated. The IEM limits "investment" to $500, so that may be a built-in brake on trading. InTrade deals with higher volumes of trading, so that may contribute to volatility, and provide more potential for market manipulation. Wolfers noted that Friday's volume on the InTrade presidential prediction market was $170,000 ... and for this particular market, that's starting to get into real money. Tom Snee told me that the IEM has seen some indication that folks are trying to manipulate the market, but so far it hasn't worked. Wolfers thinks that he may be seeing some "artificial" effects on the markets lately, though he can't verify it. I do try to avoid bias, hack reporting and idiocy if I can ... so I'm sorry if you somehow see those elements creep in to my scribblings.]

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Nick , Seattle, WA — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:14:36 GMT

To the writer of this article:

Are you a complete idiot? The poll results that will have included both Palin & Mccain's speech will not even be available until Sunday. Obama got a very obvious 8 pt bounce from his convention and it looks as if Mccain will get about the same from his evening things out.

The idiocy of MSNBC writers never ceases to amaze me.

You biased fools.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

n chapman — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:29:57 GMT

I think most of America suffering from election fatigue...quit with all the polls already!!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Ann, NY, NY — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 11:12:01 GMT

The ScienceDebate 2008 questions are excellent, and I'm grateful to you for bringing them to my attention. They make it quite clear how important scientific education, research, and development are to the most pressing issues of our time. Barack Obama's answers are thoughtful and clear, and even though they were probably written by his campaign, they give me hope. The ScienceDecision 2008 website says that John McCain's campaign has promised answers as well, and I'm really curious what they will be. One of the annoying things about McCain in this campaign is his propensity to support positions that he knows he would not really act on and make statements that he must know are not true. Will he answer these questions honestly, knowing that the audience for his responses will be largely scientific, or will he play to the anti-intellectual scorn for science that his party has done so much to cultivate?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

moe — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 11:34:15 GMT

Polls have stabilised as each party faithful have settled in a mode. The only question is the undecideds, maybe 9% of total voters. They can and will swing several times in the next 59 days. But, at the end of Nov 4th, I beleive Obama will win this election by virtue of a majority of votes and electoral college votes.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Mike Clark, Tampa, fl — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:21:20 GMT

People actually pay attention to "the bounce" ROFL...no wonder our country is in the shape its in.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Candylyn — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:40:03 GMT

It's kind of hard to have a bounce during a time when the country is split down the middle. With both candidates pulling numbers around 44-47% since the primaries ended there really isn't much room. I don't think there are as many undecided voters as the polls claim, just people who don't want to say out loud what there decision is.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Itsme — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:50:21 GMT

I would have been surprised if the electronic markets showed a convention bounce. The conventions are designed to manipulate (the voting) public opinon about the candidates.

If it were important for the campaigns to manipulate the electronic markets (if, for example, the markets enjoyed extensive news coverage) then the campaigns would be able to manipulate the electronic markets as well, although not to the same degree that they manipulate public opinion.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Tired of all the Hate — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:01:02 GMT

Just as candidates bashing candidates will not sway a voter to change positions, neither will commentary from the public sway voters to an opposing side. People will, and should, vote on the candidate they believe in, and one that supports the same ideals that they do. Its understandable that people get heated up during election season.......after all, they want their candidate to win. But do yourselves all a favor, be a strong, positive supporter of your own candidate and get over it that people dont think exactly the same as you. All politicians lie, so vote for the person you think lies the least and be done.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Interested Alice, North Carolina — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:08:36 GMT

Hello,
I have a question. In thinking about the strategy of the selection of Sarah Palin (which I found very puzzling given the previous "experience" strategy) and assuming some rationality, I have formulated an hypothesis that the selection has less to do with the impact of the presidential election than with the down stream elections. If, barring some gamechaning event, the RNC knows that they have a strong possibility of losing with McCain, then logically the strategy would move to securing as many Congressional seats as possible. Given that a high proportion of contested Senate seats are in the West, and Palin is a "red meat" candidate designed to appeal to the base, I think this might make sense. Could you check you Congressional markets and see if there is an impact from Palin's selection or speech to see if there is any support for my hypothesis?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Monte, Kansas — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:36:09 GMT

Do you really think you can poll people right after the convention? OMG dude its a little early to say this, wait and let the polling do it job after the weekend. Geeze.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Ryan, Rochester, NY — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:36:11 GMT

TruThat! definitely hit it on the head. Anyone that believes that advances in science and technology are not the future has no business in politics today. We, as a nation and as a world leader, need to step it up and fund anything that is science. NASA, LHC, telecommunications, GPS, robotics, etc. These fields are the future, NOT oil, NOT war. As far as the bounce is concerned, I am seriously astonished that Mclame's rating or standing didnt go down. He is just starting to use the internet, maybe we should send him the link to science.com so he can read up on some of the discoveries that our species has made. Hopefully Obama can have the vision of the future that most of us have. Peace and ease of life. To solve disease and poverty, we first need to accomplish these advances in tech and science that are required get us to that point. Go MOON!!!!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Maggie Cavanaugh, Lorain, Oh — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:42:20 GMT

Regardless of what psuedo-science polls can or cannot predict, one fact sticks with me. When Clinto left office we had a surplus in our wallet. Now we have moths floating out and more breeding there. I'm for surpluses that keep the U.S. headed in a direction that's good for OUR citizens FIRST, and the rest of the world SECOND. Does that make me an old fashioned isolationist, well...if you need labels I guess that one works as well as any other.

All the ad campaigns are laughable and an insult to the American people. I can't imagine why EITHER party bothers to spend so much money on them...they are a JOKE that falls flat with punch lines that do NOT deliver. If this is the best we have to offer, it's no wonder the rest of the world finds our political process in need of an overhaul, and nothing that they would want to emulate. Democracy? Hmmm, if that means taking every statement out of context to make oneself look better than the other candidate, then we are in serious trouble if we think we can sell democracy to other nations.

I used to be an eager voter, now I'm cynical beyond all reason and only hope for some kind of future parity for my family and my country. My fervent hope and prayer is that at SOME point in the campaigns between now and November at least ONE candidate will say what they mean and mean what they say.

I don't think that's too much to ask, and it's what we deserve as a nation that was founded on those principals.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

tommy jonq, tinkerville, usa — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 15:13:18 GMT

this article could have mentioned that "prediction markets" have been beating just about every other prediction method when it comes to predicting unpredictable things like political campaigns. no one knows exactly why yet, except maybe people care so much more about money (not a bad thing) than they do about imaginary things like "values." for example, the prediction markets were far more accurate than the polls all through the obama-clinton razor fight.

there is no doubt at all that the american people, and not just republicans, have consciously and unconsciously thrown away our technological lead (it's not obvious yet. but it will become more and more obvious every year from now on) over the last ten to fifteen years. everything from anti-intellectual religiosity to right-wing, anti-immigration xenophobia to election-year red tape has contributed to this trend. and it's probably too late to reverse it now. amreica is no longer the place where the world's smartest students go to succeed. even the smartest americans are moving elsewhere. enjy your iphones. it's the last time an american company is going to leap ahead of the rest of the world.

lieberman uber alles!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Liza — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 16:57:25 GMT

McCain hasn't responded because they have to somehow manage to reconcile Palin's extreme, and in some cases diametrically opposed views into their campaign.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Darcy Gagnon, Tyngsborough, MA — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 17:18:27 GMT

Thanks, great article. I was hearing about the prediction market but was clueless as to what it was exactly. Great explanation. Very, very informative in an election year that sees just too much ranting and fear-mongering instead of real issues being discussed.

And it is very telling that McCain has not sent in his science and technology response - critical thing has become a thing of the past for a large segment of the American population, if it ever existed.

Do you think reviving the Cold War fears would help education, technology and science? Obviously, global warming has not had much effect yet on the thinking of the Palins of the world. Cynical, yes, but it's kind of fun fantasising about how to actually crack this nut. (I'm not calling anyone a nut, but this whole election has been so "interesting" to see how surprisingly diverse the views of Americans are, and how the meesages of one one side are so foreign to the other. Just amazingly fascinating.)

Bye-bye to the bounce?

David Rogers, Seattle, Washington — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 17:52:39 GMT

Interesting article - I had never heard of such a market. War and drilling for oil are full of opportunities for scientific and technological advances. But really, the point is, if we don't stop transfering all our wealth to the Saudi's and the Chinese, we won't have any money left for science.

Drilling for oil and building nuclear reactors are just stopgap measures, but without them, we may not survive as a major player in the world economy.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Evelyn, IN — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 18:04:34 GMT

When it comes to energy independence and climate change, McCain promises to do just as much as Obama is promising. Looking at his voting record, though, it's clear he consistently votes down proposals that would help America build wind, solar, or other alternative energy plants. He says the magic word "nuclear power" all the time, but he fails to mention that nuclear power is actually extremely expensive- the feds would have to heavily subsidize it, just like the French. Plus, no one's exactly volunteering their own backyard as a dump for the nuclear waste. McCain also opposes any international agreement that would mandate reductions of US carbon emissionos; they would "slow down our economy", aka bring the oil companies record losses. It's clear that McCain is no real friend to the environment. At least he seems to be able to pronounce the word nuclear correctly.

We are a civilization built on science and technology. It's frightening that our leadership in both is slipping away to other countries in Europe and in Asia. The right man in the Oval Office could help us get back on track, and that man is definitely not McCain.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Jim, Irvine CA — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:11:47 GMT

Science Debate: Most of the questions invite standard campaign rhetoric, puffed up but meaningless responses. Nobody is going to say that health, education, competitiveness, innovation, etc, are unimportant.

A few, however, are different: climate change, stem cells, possibly ocean health. McCain runs the risk that intelligent responses will irritate the base; going with the base will disenchant the moderates. I don't think he is in any hurry to respond.

Political markets and the bounce: It's clear that most commentators didn't read or understand the difference between markets and polls that was made in the article.

My question is, how does the volatility of the election market compare to the volatility of a stock market? Are there trading rules that slow the pace of transactions? What is the potential for arbitrage? Are the behaviors of thin markets with few stocks different from broader markets?

Is there any evidence that some were buying Obama stocks before the convention, seeking to sell them at as the bounce peaked, trading into McCain stocks in the early days of the Republican convention? This would smooth out the prices, making the bounce harder to detect.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Stephen Jackson — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:12:36 GMT

Someone on MSNBC said the other evening (I do not remember who, but things just are not the same this year without our lost friend and national conscience Tim Russert to keep the party enforcers honest) that roughly 45% of the country is locked down Republican and about 45% locked down Democratic. I believe they have it about right. The hoopla with a convention is designed to get a party's respective 45% locked down even tighter and to the polls. The real election is over the other 10% of us, who want good government, rather than to be on the winning 'team' as it were. It is tough for us. We can stomach neither party platform, which is ripe with outrageous no-nonsense pandering to the die-hard’s of the party. I almost have to go with Obama for the simple reason that I fear McCain may allow us (with a lot of help from his friends) to continue to slide into some sort of 'pseudo jesus cult – scofield based theocracy' ... you know, the thing the founding feathers warned us about repeatedly, and with such good reason. I am not completely comfortable with this, though. Democrats have proven time and again that when they hold power, they want to micromanage the country from Washington. Now that the Republicans have proven themselves no better .... it is yet another 'lesser of two evils' election for many of us *sigh* ...

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Achshav — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:13:57 GMT

"So why haven't they done so already?"

Since announcing his VP pick, McCain has been campaigning from cloud nine. The predictions market doesn't apply up there. Come the Day After, they'll be plunged back to earth--too late to analyze the behavior of predictions traders. Like all clueless losers, they'll then create a lost cause myth.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

On hurricane watch,FL — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:15:47 GMT

I find the theory fascinating and have been interested in the phenomenon for a while. I'm reassured when I hear that Sen. Obama responded. That shows me that he's actually thought about the importance of science in our society going forward. We need a forward thinking President!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

PD — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:40:10 GMT

Large investments in infrastructure seems to run in cycles in our society, no matter who pushes them. Despite Reagan's support for the superconducting collider, it was never built. Now the science focus shifts to Europe as CERN opens the LHC. China is sending up manned spacecraft, Japan is working on its own space program, and basic advances in a number of sciences are now being made in India and South America. This is already having an effect, despite the dullards who see "no benefit" to research, BOTH presidental candidates have sworn to invest in the US infrastructure for science and for a great many other needed improvements as well. All this eventually shows up on the bottom line of the economy as improved efficiency/productivity/innovation. It's time to rebuild once again, and I'm sure we will. It is worth remember that the 200 inch telescope on Palomar was the world's largest for quite a few decades, and it was built during the depression.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

J King Washington DC — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:43:30 GMT

I think most people took a decision already. Who are these people the polls reflect that can't decide, or keep changing their minds?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Kate, ch'ville, va. — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 21:10:57 GMT

If they want to see the bounce maybe they could each take some of their millions in campaign money and use it for something more worthy NOW instead of the silly commercials that people mute or change the channel anyway when they come on. Who benefits from these commercials? Only television stations, production companies, and the like but Americans are bored to tears with them. SO, I challenge both Obama and McSame to put their money where their mouths are now and use that money for Change now instead of spending it on the same old "I approved this message" garbage. Find anything that needs change, a school, park, playground, neighborhood,etc. and use that campaign money to improve lives right now. Making silly commercials with millions and flooding yards with cardboard signs which blow all over the streets really is a waste of money! I'd love to see candidates who tried to top each other by actually doing something worthy for people NOW instead of grandstanding on a stage preaching to their choirs for applause and a spot on Nightly News. Politics as usual is as usual all about them and never about us.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Tom Faggart — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 21:40:40 GMT

I thought McCain was 8 points behind at the beginning of the convention. Today, according to CBS poll, he and Obama are tied. Seems like a bounce to me. Unless one is blind and deaf and completely isolated from the media they are aware of the Palin Mania that is sweeping across this country. Try again! You missed it this time completely. I am sure this will never make the net.

[ALAN ADDS: Again, I should point out that I'm talking about the prediction markets, which have had a better track record than political polls for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. And a better track record than folks who predict whether or not their comment will appear on the Internet. ;-) ]

Bye-bye to the bounce?

zig — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 21:50:23 GMT

With there only being a 15% undecided vote to fight over, it is not surprising that the pompous nature of the coventions failed to sway these voters. It is likely the undecided will wait for the debates. And though i found John McCain's speech to endearing in his plight to survive in Hanoi's prison camp I need to know what he plans on doing. He stated he wants to send people to community college to train them for jobs but did not tell me where the jobs are to come from. His voting record as of late on veterans affairs is deplorable and he seems to be staking his future on these issues which I would assume is why he went with nostalgia.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Bill Morrow — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 22:27:33 GMT

The bounce of the convention won't come out until Monday or Tuesday...

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Jim, Irvine CA — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 22:31:39 GMT

"Democrats have proven time and again that when they hold power, they want to micromanage the country from Washington." Stephen Jackson

I wonder if this isn't more the conventional wisdom than the actuality. How exactly did Clinton micromanage the economy? Or Carter, Johnson, Kennedy?

Both parties attempt macromanagement. It was Carter's appointment of the monetarist Voelker, not so long after the work of Milton Freidman gained wide acceptance, that changed from macromanagement by fiscal policy to monetary policy.

What Democrats do favor is more regulation. Regulation promotes transparency and reduces risk, making the market work better. I saw it someplace just a couple of days ago - economic growth is higher under Democratic than Republican administrations.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Prof D — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 22:45:48 GMT

Polls are reliably "unreliable"...Truman against Dewey in 1948 is a prime example. What if a pollster were "bought off" and produced skewed results???

We'll just have to see what the results will be in November. And let's hope that Obama gets CRUSHED.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Bill, Suwanee, GA — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 23:09:29 GMT

Absent of some major scandal, McCain/Palin will win - polls schmolls...they're incredibly biased by never having more than 35% of their respondents claiming to be Republicans. If McCain keeps the biased polls witin the margin of error he will win.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

IWishPeopleWouldRead, PA — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 00:06:46 GMT

I wish people would read the article. This has nothing to do with traditional polls. If you think it does, go back and read it again. These "markets" have a much quicker (and accurate) response to events in the political world.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Aaron Durst, Newark, DE — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 00:17:21 GMT

I kept an eye on the Intrade market, and I thought there was a pretty significant bounce for McCain. He got as hign as $0.45 before profit taking reduced his bounce. Still at $0.42, I still think he is trading higher than he was when he went into the convention. Back when it became clear it would be a Obama-McCain race, McCain traded at $0.30. So, I tend to disagree with the premise of the article.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Jill, Madison, WI — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 01:16:59 GMT

I am fascinated by the concept of "marketing" political campaigns, but I am even more fascinated by the apparent inability of so many of the commenters on this site to comprehend that you are not talking about polls, and have repeated that several times, to no apparent avail! No wonder this country is in trouble, people have no comprehension of what they read!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

twocents, Alexandria, VA — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 01:49:03 GMT

I'm not a big player in the market nor am I informed enough to even think I could have any intelligent input on this subject. But I have a few questions. 1) How did Bill Clinton get us out of the enormous debt he inherited when he took office and improve the economy at the same time? No matter what anyone may think of him personally, they can't deny the fact that he did this. 2) I have always said that if it had not been for email, porn and the opportunity to daytrade without a broker, the personal computer would have never been a success. So now I would like to know if the daytraders have become a negative influence on the market by increasing the market's volatibility? 3) If the daytraders are a negative influence on the market which results in a negative influence on the economy, can anything be done about it?

Thanks for the informative article.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

JD, Seattle, WA — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 03:08:19 GMT

For those folks who stayed awake during Political Science classes, this certainly is an historic presidential campaign, and as best as I have been able to determine, it is the first presidential campaign where a candidate focused intensely on controlling and owning what one might call the online and interactive digital communication space, which spans websites, blogs, instant messaging, Twitter, YouTube, and the political stock market described and explained in this installment of the "Cosmic Log" . . .

To be more precise, early in the campaign I began to get the distinct impression that it was very different from previous presidential campaigns, if only because one of the Democrat contenders in the primary launched his campaign with a YouTube video of attractive young women wearing t-shirts with what one might call the modern version of "I Like Ike!" slogans, which certainly was a novel way to introduce oneself to the voting public . . .

Sometime later, after observing more of such apparently non-standard campaign strategies, a few strange thoughts began appearing in the particular part of my brain that focuses on discerning the obvious, even when it is not so obvious on first inspection, with the consequence that I started to suspect that it might be possible to hire vast teams of professional offshore workers to engage round the clock in activities such as voting in online political polls, posting short messages to blogs, and so forth and so on . . .

Insofar as I know, there are no specific laws that prevent doing something like this, and if one has the money to pay for it, then it simply is a matter of deciding to do it and then getting connected to the telemarketing and other types of companies that specialize in this type of work . . .

Stated another way, my thinking generally is that if I can imagine it happening, and if it doable within the legal framework of our great nation, then someone else probably can and perhaps already has imagined it and then has put the strategy into motion . . .

So, how does this relate to trading artificially created political stock and interpreting the resulting market data sensibly?

One perspective is that manipulating a market primarily only requires a lot of money and some very specific resources, so it is entirely possible to do, especially when it is not specifically prohibited by law . . .

In other words, given a virtually unlimited budget, I think it is entirely possible and practical to control or to own quite a few digital spaces (YouTube, Twitter, MySpace, Facebook, assorted blogs, news websites, so forth and so on), if only because initially few if any people in their wildest imaginations ever would suspect that controlling or owning a digital space actually is so easy to do . . .

When you take the time to engage in the required arithmetic, all it takes essentially to buy a viral YouTube video are a few geographically diverse centers filled with workers who join YouTube and then click on a specific video 24x7, over and over and over, but always in a way that makes it difficult or impossible for the YouTube security folks to recognize that they are being "owned" by what for all practical purposes are highly paid professional hackers . . .

Could a similar strategy be used to "own" an artificially created political stock market?

Sure!

Or, it could be just a matter of enough people deciding sua sponte to support their candidate with their pocketbooks and purses in a rather unusual and somewhat expensive way . . .

Of course, the problem with this type of strategy, as is the case with polls in general, is that it is only so effective as the accuracy of the initial presumptions that create and guide it . . .

In Political Science, as sometimes is the case in Probability and Statistics generally, a classic example appears and is used by professors to emphasize the importance of vast initial conditions and presumptions . . .

Specifically, it focuses on a political poll which was conducted based on selecting people from a telephone book in New York City (or perhaps Manhattan) nearly a century ago during especially difficult economic times not so long after the telephone appeared on a somewhat large scale . . .

The results of the poll showed one candidate winning by a landslide, but in the actual election that candidate in fact lost by a landslide, and after a bit of analysis the cause of the huge error was determined to be the simple fact that only very wealthy people could afford telephones, hence were the overwhelming majority of folks who were listed in the telephone book . . .

Great idea for a political poll, but the premise was fundamentally flawed in a way that skewed the results in the extreme . . .

And connecting a few dots, this is the way I view what I think is the first large-scale attempt to control digital space in a presidential election, in the sense that while it might appear to be a great idea, it simply does not matter in the grand scheme of everything, because there simply are not enough voters in the the YouTube, MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, IM, and all the other digital spaces to amount to a hill of beans when compared to all the senior folks and their "Baby Boomer" children--a group of folks who will stand outside in a roaring blizzard or a hurricane if that is what is required for them to cast their ballots in a presidential election AND who generally are pretty clueless when it comes to digital spaces . . .

All the YouTube et al. folks are not going to get cold and wet to vote, if they even bothered to register to vote, and the only queue they will form is the one outside of an Apple Store or perhaps a game store, where they will stand in line for days to get a new iPhone or the latest version of Grand Theft Auto (Special Airhead Edition), but there are not going to be a lot of them in the queue on the first Tuesday in November, which is something the Founding Fathers realized, with this being one of the reasons the presidential election is held on a day when the weather is not always so fair and sunny . . .

In other words, if you are not willing to stand outside in the rain or snow, then perhaps you should be discouraged from being among the group of citizens who select the next president of our great nation, with the most simple way of doing this being to include a bit of unpredictable weather in the equation . . .

Thanks!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Alan Boyle — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 03:24:00 GMT

Aaron, you're right that the InTrade figures did show more of a bounce for both candidates, and I understand that there was a significant spike on Friday, up and down as you describe. I was looking only at the closing figures day by day, but this is something that Justin Wolfers remarked about. This may be an instance of the market at work ... the price was bid up by folks who really felt pumped about McCain after the convention (and saw that things went well), and then bid down by "profit-takers" ... people who were not quite as optimistic about McCain's chances and decided to sell off. Remember, this is a winner-take-all investment, so the profit takers not only serve to balance the market but also balance the political assessment as well.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Marcia Gerber, Moline, IL — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 05:46:47 GMT

The reason McCain hasn't responded is because he is equally unable or unqualified to answer a question without the help of someone else. Pretty scary to think John McCain could not answer and return the 14 questions regarding science/scientific issues and he and the RNC/GOP will not allow Palin to speak to or answer questions from the press or media. What about the rights of voting Americans - shouldn't we be allowed to know something about the people we may vote into public service?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

John Dancy — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 06:07:39 GMT

Obama had his bounce stolen by the Palin announcement, on the other hand, on the day Palin spoke at the RNC she motivated people to donate $8 million to Obama.

McCain will get a tiny bounce, but he was behind already.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Eron — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 06:09:45 GMT

Who cares what the polls show. If you are making decision based on polls your most likely an idiot(my opinion). If you have been paying attention to the for the past several years you should see the trend and understand how we are being bombarded with more and more bad info from all sides. CNN's Way(D) and Foxes Opinion(R)!!!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

D. Hayes, Quartz Hill,CA — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 08:45:30 GMT

So... I'm here lookin around and I manage to catch a few articles, blurbs, and blogs. Well, O.K. not blogs! Regarding the Science and Technology piece, I have to admit that it got me to thinkin(though not too deeply), and I was reminded of the advantages we as "the people" enjoyed during one of our country's pursuits of a modern agenda. You know, like the one where entrepreneurial and technological innovations transformed building=sized computers costing millions into desktops,laptops, and handhelds costing only hundreds. I wonder if anyone ever bothered to integrate that into a political stock pick!
The high value to low cost ratio formula that science and technology delivered in that instance is something that continues to benefit our lives today.
Seems pretty simple to me; When policies promote tremendous values that serve to lower costs(no matter if it is in health-care or alternative energies) that serves to improve our lives. And so I ask, where's the downside?
It's funny, but unless I missed it the day I went to school to keep my brother from being absent... I don't believe anybodys figured out how to make time move in reverse.
So I just have to take my encouragement from the candidate who not only sees to it that his homework was done (or at least picked up), but sees further that the future relies on the genius that Science and Technology develops.
That said, it may pay for one of our candidates to acknowledge what so many of our citizens either already know, or will soon learn in the course of their lives (and hopefully in the course of this campaign):
" Your priorities yesterday...is where you are today. Your priorities today...is where you'll be tomorrow." - Life According To Ron

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Mike, Jacksonville FL — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 13:03:54 GMT

While there may be some merit in market predictive studies, I am a firm believer that almost any number-crunching based proof for or against something can be manipulated to give the person the answer they hope to achieve. There is almost no way to remove a tester's/pollster's bias. Anyone that claims not to have a vested interest in anything is likely a liar or ignorant of the subject. To build a computational study of something for which one is ignorant would be unlikely. As soon as the individual begins to seek knowledge of something previously unknown, an opinion develops and the foundation of personal bias starts to build.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Jess, Seattle, WA — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 14:06:10 GMT

Thanks for the link to the sciencedebate2008 site, I will be sending all of my colleagues here to check it out (I am a medical microbiogist).

That being said, I just have to make a snarky response to a fellow respondent (I won't bother mentioning the wealth of reading-comprehension impaired people who left comments, because that has been more than adequately covereed already).

And the prize for the most long-winded, completely pointless rambling comment left by a fellow respondent goes to: JD, of Seattle,!
<!!!and the crowd goes wild!!!> Well.... they would if they weren't asleep after reading all of that swill.
If, OTOH, JD just wanted to see if anyone would be gullible enough to read the whole dang thing in hopes of finding that it would all to be tied together in the end I have no choice but to curtsey and say "well played!".

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Carrington Ward — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 15:13:36 GMT

As they snark, "Reading Comprehension FTW..."

Wow.

I did miss discussion of whether the political markets were sufficiently liquid -- as I recall, the markets during the primaries were responding to some pretty goofy signals (and missing some of the more important ones).

Part of the problem, of course, is that they're relatively small markets, and worse, individual investors face significant legal hurdles in joining the market (else I'd have taken a nice profit on Obama's primary victory).

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 16:23:55 GMT

Seeing as this turned into a political forum, I would like my thoughts represented.
I think these bounces are artificial to say the least. When the Telephone rings and you answer a question about who you like the best, your answer could be the same as a thousand other callees because you live in an area that is an enclave for your particular choice. They pick a group of registered voters. Where do they get the list? Is it one party's list, or an equal number from each party? Is it a blind list, not knowing who is Democrat, Republican or from a third party? If it is an equal amount from both parties, there would be no bounce for either party. We will have to see who wins in November to really know who got the "bounce".
At this time, if I would bet I would put my money on McCain-Palin. I think they usurped the "Change" mantra from Obama-Biden. For someone that has only been an actve member of the US Senate for 11 weeks out of the 2 years he was in, Sen. Obama is an empty suit. Senator Biden: "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," Biden said. "I mean, that's a storybook, man." Biden also said that Senator Obama wasn't ready to be POTUS during the Primaries.
Governor Palin brought a new excitment into the Republican party and woke up a lot of Republicns. It showed when 24 hours after she was announced, McCain's campaign got a bonus of $10 Million US.
I think we really have a good chance for the correct "Change" without the Taxes that Sen. Obama wants to inflict on America. With the higher taxes, he could deepen the Recession we are in to a Depression. Failing banks, job lose, dollar devalued, high production costs and a law called, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (a 50% tax on imported goods)slowed the economy to a crawl and then into a Depression for not only the USA but for the world in 1929. What we need to keep businesses going are less taxes and more international trade. You can see that NAFTA and other trade policies are in serious jeapordy with Sens. Obama-Biden. To keep prosperous, we need our goods going all over the world. We can't use all of what we produce only here at home.
Sens. Obama and Biden want the price of oil to skyrocket to "Save the Planet" as Nancy Pelosi said. Well, if you can't afford to go to work, there will be no money to tax, no money to pay the bills. No money for the tourist industry which relies solely on people traveling. We have the capability to use our coal cleanly, our oil in the western states, Alaska, on the continental shelf along with putting incentive money into solar, wind and other alternative fuels without doing any more damage to the earth. We have to learn to work together without the in-fighting between parties. Only Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin can accomplish that with their history of doing so.
McCain-Palin 60%
Obama-Biden 40%

Bye-bye to the bounce?

TruePatriot — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 17:35:57 GMT

After Warren's interview of the candidates about religion, I wish an interviw on science would be televised as well. Unfortunately, while Obama was very honest when asked about being pro-choice, why do I suspect Mr. Can't Google and Mrs. Flat Earth would lie and say they are all for scientific advancement?

McCain has traded every principle for the presidency, including torture. After eight miserable years of anti-intellectualism and having the fundamentalist fringe dictate their beliefs to the rest of the country, this should be important in this election. People want change that will move us forward, not backward.

In the meantime, a factor that people forget when predicting elections is region. People in red states thought Bill Clinton didn't have a chance. I made money on some personal bets that year.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

John Vandenacre, Townsend, MT — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 18:22:13 GMT

Interesting article. Somehow you went from the stock issue to the 14 questions.
I would like to know why Stem Cell Research is one of those questions or why it is anybody's question. There is not one infintsmal shred of evidence that stem cells hold the remotest possiblity of healing anything. On the other hand ADULT cell research HAS proven to be a Very Real possible answer to many of the diseases and health issues touted by stem cell research proponets, and no one has to lose their life.
Why are we throwing good money after bad with stem cells instead of throwing good money after good with a proven track record? After all that is how we look at stock investments in the first place.
Is stem cell research really good science or even allow for an intellectual approach? Evidence would say no. Or is this just a radical group, with the ear of the press, and they can see how they can line their pockets with money? Ours!
I am a firm believer in science, just look at how many things we take for granted every day just because one president decided to 'go to the moon'.
I am Not a rocket scientist, I knew one once, he was in our Montana State Legislature. Let me assure you I am not a rocket scientist, I have entirely too much common sense.
John Townsend, MT

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Lisa — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 18:44:54 GMT

Let me get this straight, people are making money out of influencing our thinking? ('...plop down money...and shares on the candidates') Now, I know we have hit a new low.

WE need to change the way elections are run.
1) Consolidate primaries
Too few states make the decision for the rest of
us.
2) Have primary debates where every person gets asked the same question so we can hear all of their views; not just the front runners according to these money making polls.
3) Shorten the campaign from 18 months to 9 months. The advertisers and television industry are making too much money in the current system.
4) Change the roles of our Executive Office.
A candidate doesn't seem to be experienced in both the Domestic problems and the Foreign problems.
We need someone to concentrate soley on Foreign Policy and another one to concentrate soley on Domestic Policy. The economy boomed during Clinton, but the terrorists gained ground. The economy suffered under Bush as his attention was always on matters overseas.

a. Expand the role of the Vice President as the Domestic Policy coordinator and the President is the Foreign Policy coordinator.
or
b. Perhaps we should have 2 presidents and 0 Vice Presidents. Gee, they could be from different parties!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

BM, philly, PA — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:23:08 GMT

MSNBC's bias has them looking stupid again. The Palin Speech alone has given them a +10 bounce in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. MSNBC needs to start recognizing they are hurting Obama's chances by putting their love affair on open display for all to see.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

S.Y. — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:32:15 GMT

Electronic Markets? More like the Iowa Electronic Bookies.

This is gaming the election. Appropos to the ugly tone of these campaigns from Day One.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Kentucky Betty — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 23:34:38 GMT

How often are these odds makers right?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Sharn Cedar, Philadelphia, PA — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 00:56:56 GMT

Would it be possible for the writer of this article to give more info on how accurate this silly and modern idea of prediction markets really is? You hear a lot about this these days, how markets are great predictors, etc., but I haven't seen any sober analysis of whther this works. Certainly, for example, the credit markets failed to predict the housnig bubble burst, or the tech bubble burst, or the coming Google bubble burst, etc., etc., etc., so I wonder what scientists or non-biased people would say about the power of these silly experiments to actually predict anything. if they are like the asset markets, one would expect a "false consensus" phenonemon to happen, for example everyone convince eachother that Obama is the likely winner, right up until his bubble bursts in November. It is quite possiblt that these silly market based predictors are far less reliable than just experts guessing, just as many experts could tell you the housing market was going to collapse (look at goldman sachs) but the market had no clue and got caught flat-footed.

[ALAN ADDS: I did link to the research based on 1988-2000 results, and there's a paper in the works saying that based on 1988-2004, the markets did better than the polls 74 percent of the time. The market "significantly outperforms the polls" in predicting results 100 days before the election, according to the University of Iowa study. Of course, the U of I is the outfit that presents the IEM, but you can review the results for yourself:]

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/papers/long%20run%20accuracy.pdf

Bye-bye to the bounce?

R Bloom Richland Wash — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 01:35:38 GMT

Things change, including minds -
Gallup 9/7/08 McCain 48% Obama 45%
There are a lot of people who realize that Obama will not stand up against politics as usual. People want change, but trading the Republican machine for the democratic machine is not change. Obama is the ultimate talking head for the democratic party.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Odds Are, Pahrump, NV — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 02:25:21 GMT

Mr. Boyle should stick to pure science for which he has enjoyed a rather respectable reputation. Now, after venturing into speculation, partisan politics, crap shots, Las Vegas shilling, smoke filled rooms, hucksters, and biased opinions, his reputation has more dirty rings does than Saturn.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Dave, OK — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 02:31:09 GMT

To Nick of Seattle, WA:

A fair response to your question about the idiocy of Alan Boyle would be the following: only idiots comment on articles they don't understand. Your metion of the lag in the polls clearly expresses your lack of understanding of the political markets. This article was not about polls, if you didn't notice. Polls were only mentioned peripherally, and your lack of attention to detail ruined the credibility of your comment. Please! Alan obviously has done more research in this area than you have. This is actually an interesting issue that economiists study. How DO polls compare with markets in predicting the outcomes of elections? The major point of this article: while the polls see a bounce after the conventions, the markets do not.

Alan, maybe you should simplify, just in case Nick reads anything else on your column. But wait! That would make it boring for me. . .

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Dave, OK — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:25:14 GMT

John Vandenacre: embryonic stem cell research offers plenty that adult stem cell research doesn't. Embryonic stem cells can differenctiate into ANY tissue in the body, while adult stem cells are significantly more limited. Embryonic stem cells have the potential to be useful in the very near future, while adult stem cells are clearly a more distant hope due to the set of hurdles keeping them from differentiating as readily. Funding embryonic stem cell research is important to many people (and with good reason), so it is an important issue for reasonable candidates to discuss. Given your strongly anti-embryonic stem cell stance and my strong opinion in favor, I would say that this issue will have sway in the national elections, rather than just in political markets and polls. In the political markets, people ultimately put their money on the candidate they THINK will win, rather than on the candidate they HOPE will win. To do otherwise would be a very expensive, yet ineffective way to support a candidate. Denying that the issue of embryonic stemm cell research should be important (as you do) seems to be a self-defeating strategy, given the issue is already important. A policy statement about embryonic stem cell research has the potential to make or break the election for either candidate.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Steven — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:25:40 GMT

actually, Mccain now has a 10 point lead on Obama according to the Usa today poll! Who is going to win! Mccain has to win! [...]
Go Mccain/Palin 2008!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Joe Strout, Fort Collins, CO — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:40:16 GMT

Thanks for the article, Alan. I've been lightly involved in these prediction markets for some time, and I believe they are a great way to aggregate information in a large group and bring out "the wisdom of the crowd." It works better than polling for many reasons, not least of which is that those who are good at it are rewarded (and in the future, have more influence over the market) than those who are bad at it.

But there's a more subtle distinction to make here: polls and futures markets are not measuring the same thing. For example: a poll where 40% of respondents favor McCain predicts only that, at that moment, 40% of people favor McCain. It doesn't mean he has a 40% chance of winning. Conversely, a futures market value of 40 cents means that the market, as a whole, gives him a 40% chance of winning; it doesn't mean that 40% of the traders favor him. It could be that none of the traders like him, or all of them do, but regardless of what outcome they would prefer, as a group they estimate McCain winning as an outcome that's only 40% likely.

In short: futures markets show who the traders expect to win, while polls show who respondents want to win.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Keith Doberman, Abject, Denial — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 05:09:21 GMT

"He is a discredit to anyone wearing a uniform with his chronic POW pandering...Oh BOO HOO HOO. That was then John - what have you done for US lately???"

Considering how often I heard the week prior about how Barack Obama asked Michelle out on their first date (apparently his equivalent formative experience to McCain's POW experience) McCain's infusion of actual examples of personal courage, accomplishment and sacrifice were refreshing.

Although I'm sure Obama was very good at filling up cups of orange soda to get the community organized back in the day.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Lisa, Freeport, NY — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:56:30 GMT

Too many people (mostly pro McCain types) haven't read the article properly. This isn't a general poll, it is a poll taken by the market. I agreed that it is probably more accurate simply because it isn't based on emotion. It appears that this predicts Obama winning. This gives me hope because I am fearful of continuing the downward spiral this country has been in under Bush and Cheney, who as far as I am concerned are war criminals.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Bill Heilmann, Chicago IL — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 08:51:26 GMT

So who's the idiot now? McCain was down by 8 in the pre-convention Gallup poll, and now is up by 4. Before you go writing a stupid article like this, how about you wait for the data to be gathered.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Don Fry — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:11:15 GMT

On November 4th there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth in the B.O. camp. Many of us that support John McCain choose to remain silent till that day...

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Bill, VA — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:25:39 GMT

Boyle, you idiot!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Betty Johnson — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 12:59:55 GMT

Kudos to management for finally throwing Olbermon & Mathews into the trash dumpsters..no two people deserved it more now CNN do the same to contributer Paul Bagala this nut just makes NO sense even Howard Dean smartened up a little bit. I stoppd watching MSNBC because of the two fired guys now I will go back.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

EBoone, North Huntingdon, PA — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:31:13 GMT

How large is this artificial market? How much capital is invested in it? And how many individul investors participate? Makes a big difference in how easy it would be to manipulate it if there is $50,000 invested as opposed to $5,000,000.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

llrine — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:46:38 GMT

McCains ahead YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

J1ggy Marion — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 14:46:43 GMT

What is of real interest to me is the bounce Palin brought to the ticket with Republican males. The convention unified the GOP. To use a sports metaphor, it's about moving the ball. The GOP has momentum which they have lacked all year. They have succeeded where Hilliary was unable to go by putting pressure on media about pro bias towards Obama. My opinion of MSNBC has become more positive as they have moved toward more objectivity which was lacking with Olberman and Matthews.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

J.E., Parsippany, New Jersey — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 15:30:34 GMT

I think Obama is clearly the loser of the 2 recent conventions. The dems are not very worried that the Repubs have good momentum moving forward and obsviously America identifies with Sarah Palin more than any Senator involved in the election process. Sarah Palin is the best thing to happen in Politics in a long time and the dems now realise they blew it not involving Hilary as the choice for VP. I only hope Sarah can get the opportuity to get into Washington to challenge the Good Old boys network in her own party as well as the dems.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Yorn Mcgee — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:59:14 GMT

Look at the "bounce" numbers today....McCain by 4%. That is an 11% increase from after the Democrats convention. That is huge!! I guess maybe more people like McCain and Palin than you thought. Get in touch with the rest of America guys!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

dusky, Portola, CA — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:59:26 GMT

I think the main reason for the feeble bounces we have seen is that political conventions have become the most boring spectacles imaginable, right up there with the old USSR May Day parades. When the only surprise allowed, if any, is the vice-presidential pick, you know you will have a lot of snoozers in front of their TV screens during the.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Yorn mcgee West America — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:02:36 GMT

Keith Doberman,

what has Obama EVER done for me now or lately?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Fred Jarreau — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:20:36 GMT

I just loved reading this article today. It was just icing on the cake after hearing that Keith "I wanna bear BOs child!" Obermann and Chris "Spooging for Obama" Matthews were demoted.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Wes Moss — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:42:28 GMT

Where have you folks been. Has anyone not seen the polls as of Sunday, which was all over the national news. Where does this writer get his info. Like it or not, it shows McCain with a 3-4 point lead, even by NBC and MSNBC's standard. I can't believe you folks have your head in the sand on this and are ignoring the most recent polls as though they do not exist. Get a grip, but maybe you don't want to face reality.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Mike New York — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 18:30:05 GMT

Has any article written this month been more wrong? hey Viola of Hudson, there was a Bounce, an 11 point swing type of bounce. Of Course the Liberal Media had hoped against it, but unfortunately the people have other ideas and dont listen to you anymore. HUGE BOUNCE! NOW IN THE LEAD BOUNCE, OBAMA PANIC MODE BOUNCE.

This writer should be embarrased trying to push his own agenda outside of the facts. Oh Wait, its Keith Olbermans MSNBC, enough said.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

COLEEN — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 18:55:36 GMT

YOU ALWAYS MANAGE TO GET IT WRONG!! HAVEN'T YOU SEEN THE NEWEST POLL? MCCAIN AND PALIN ARE UP 5 POINTS!!

Bye-bye to the bounce?

John Doe — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:11:34 GMT

the RNC did get a million more viewers

Bye-bye to the bounce?

JeromeM Atlanta GA — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:20:02 GMT

THIS STORY IS ABSOLUTELY WRONG. MCCAIN GOT AN 8 POINT BOUNCE. THE STORY USES A POLL TAKEN BEFORE THE CONVENTION. ANOTHER MEDIA STORY THAT IS REALY SLANTED AGAINST MCCAIN. Go back to school and learn to be a reporter and then right your story.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

J D Long — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:50:21 GMT

I don't know what planet most of the people who wrote to you are on but McCain is now ahead in the polls. What is much more important is he will win the election by alot. Obama says he is an agent for change and what does he do with his first big decision? He picks a live long Washington politician. Actions always speak louder than words.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

SilverGuardian, Beaverton OR — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 20:51:15 GMT

First, to twocents ... I have to disagree with your assessment of the internet. The vast majority of people that I know use it to share and gain insight, information, wisdom, and find help with everything from how to kill a cockroach to what foods and herbs will help medical conditions. The sharing of porn is still only a small portion of internet use, compared to that.

And to Alan ... What an odd assortment of responses! So much frothing over polls, which this article is not about, leaves me scratching my head. Did these guys even read the article? Or are they oblivious to the difference between polls and prediction markets? Nary a query about questions like ... have the prediction markets in past years EVER made a large change right after conventions, and what kinds of activities (such as Edwards' wife's illness becoming known) have seemed to actually make changes in them? Which ones have turned out to be wrong? That would be fun to know.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Michael, Chicago — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 21:24:14 GMT

I am wondering if this debate will bring up the issue of a government's role in cencering and changing scientific data. The Union of Concerned Scientists and many members of the EPA tell of wide spread censorship of scientific data, durring the current administration. Will the ethics of this issue be part the ScienceDebate 2008?

Bye-bye to the bounce?

JBS, Richmond VA — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:14:04 GMT

Apparently you were right, until you were wrong, 72 hours later. McCain bounce is now 11 points with registered voters and 17 points with likely voters according to Gallup considering that he was 7 points down going into the Republican Convention. Be careful what you forsee or the bounce could be yours as Keith and Chris recently learned the hard way.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

j9 — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:21:38 GMT

Perhaps the bounce (whether measured by market predictive means or by polls) was originally an indicator of the slowness of news dissemination -- a factor that no longer exists. Perhaps Alan B. can come up with some quick statistics on whether or not bounces have been getting smaller over the years...

[As I mentioned, the Iowa Electronic Markets, which has been doing this for 20 years, has never seen a post-convention bounce. There are developments that move the markets, and the markets can be wrong. A recent example of that was the Democratic New Hampshire primary, when the market favored Obama but Clinton won. So the markets are not infallible. They just turn out to be often better than the polls.]

Bye-bye to the bounce?

John McCain — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:35:45 GMT

McNasty (as his friends nicknamed him eons ago) seems to be evening things out, but we'll see in November. As an economist, I believe in the predictive power of market forces---Obama will win.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Stephen Kay — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 01:57:51 GMT

Well I see thier alot of Obama hopefulls in here, But you better look at the polls ,I think McCain got the bounce he need and got his word outand befor he done I think his running mate will Bring alot of Voters to his side, But time will tell

Bye-bye to the bounce?

John Rathbone, Golden, CO — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 03:12:03 GMT

9/8/2008, the poling data is now in. Ha, can you say superball. Bounce indeed. Alan Boyle, how about an update on that McCain stock. I should have bought it on Friday I suspect.

[ALAN ADDS: Sigh ... Once again, I need to point out that the item was about political predictive markets ... not about polls, not about TV ratings. Such markets have been shown to be more accurate at determining the result of an election than polls, and they have never been seen to reflect the "conventional" post-convention bounce. I did update the item with the latest closing figures for Sunday night, and if you like I can update it with the closing figures for tonight as well. But at some point you're going to have to look them up yourselves.

[If you had bought your shares in the Republican winner-take-all market at Friday's average price (41.2 cents) and sold them at today's average price (44.7 cents), you would indeed have made 3.5 cents per share, and that would qualify as a bounce in my book. So I acknowledge that the market has moved upward. But if you had sold those shares on Saturday's average price (40.2 cents), you would have lost a penny a share. So there have been ups and downs rather than a consistent upward spike.

[By the way, I'm not posting any messages that are simply scurrilous campaign screeds about the candidates ... for example, claiming that such-and-such a candidate is doing such-and-such a horrible thing or is terrible for such-and-such a reason. But I'm posting every message that calls me an idiot. I'm just a masochist at heart, I guess.]

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Bill M, Leesburg, VA — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:47:31 GMT

What planet do you live on. All the polls show McCain got a huge bounce from the convention. They also show that Palin was very intrumental in generating excitement for the ticket.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

T,Boise, Idaho — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:30:37 GMT

I am not surprised that most of the McBush/Plain supporters can't read and comprehend what the article is about. They keep blabbering, You wrong this poll say he up this much or Ha Ha he up even more. Use your brain please. That is not what the article is about. The article explains how the political predictive market is more acurate than polls in the last 100 days of an election. The MARKET not the polls, has shown no "bounce" from both parties conventions during the past 20 years. Half of the American voters are mentally challenged and a majority of them reside in red states. Being from Idaho I know first hand.

Bye-bye to the bounce?

Nigel Eccles — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:10:24 GMT

Only McCain is now seeing a very significant bounce. He moved from under 40% to around 45% on Intrade and from 30% to 40% with Hubdub (http://www.hubdub.com). He has been climbing pretty much since Sarah Palin spoke at the convention.