How the undecideds decide

John Dodds — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 00:18:44 GMT

This "research" fails to account for valid changes in the attitudes of the undecideds, changes which the undecideds are FORCED to make if they are going to vote. For example- if an undecided was exposed to (& believed) the Swift Boat advertisements, and then voted that way, it would show up in the voting results. Like wise if the undecided did not believe the ads they might vote the other way. ie advertising or exposing the candidates position matters!
All this research says is that if you push a voter hard enough you will eventually get him/her to commit. This is why polls group people into categories: Very Likely, sowewhat likely, unlikely, very unlikely...
The "research " is common sense, AND TOTALLY WORTHLESS, given how often the polls are wrong. At best it is claiming that they can cut down on the inaccuracy of polling IF they ask more questions. Many people will just answer with ANY answer just to get rid of the nosey unwanted intruding pollster.

How the undecideds decide

Concerned Voter — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 08:50:31 GMT

In case my previous comment was censored, I would like to offer this alternative version. This article talks about "how will undecided voters decide". I found a YouTube video that make 100% sense to me as to why you should not vote for McCain (or at least seriously consider not voting for him). I won't list it here, but maybe you will find it and see for yourself. I consider myself an undecided voter and I am looking for a reason why or why I shouldn't vote for Obama, but I have yet to find a reason. I like neither candidate 100% and I need a reason NOT to vote for Obama. I'd hate to see this election come down to "Oh, so many people voted for the independent candidate, that the republican candidate automatically won." kind of scenario. Will this be that kind of election? I hope not! I wish we could elect a president that "everyone" can agree with (even though they have their personal issues about them).

[ALAN ADDS: Concerned's previous posting was a link to a campaign video on YouTube, and I did feel that didn't provide the right context. As Concerned notes in this message, you could probably find the video yourself ... as well as other videos raising questions about Obama. I don't mind a little partisanship in the comments here, but there should be an effort to put it in the context of the posting at hand.]

How the undecideds decide

Michael Kent, Ohio — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:41:19 GMT

Your forgetting something. Take the swift boat ads for instance. Whether or not your are likely to believe them depends in part on your political leanings. Hardcore liberals rejected them out of hand, hardcore conservatives believed them instantly without even bothering to look at the evidence. Similarly when fox news ran (a completely false) story on how Obama attended a radical Islamic school as a child, many conservatives instantly believed it (and some still repeat it,and will argue with you even if you tell them it has been proven false) The undecideds fall very much between the extremes.

Its true that many undecideds are those that decide that they should wait to the last minute,weigh the last two years of campaigning and make the most informed decision they can. These people respond to different things than most. For instance,a 100 page document on the candidates positions will probably do more for these people than all the swift boat ads you can come up with.

On the other hand,the typical undecided has certain political leanings and biases. Thats what this will measure. At the end of the day,its a statistical thing. You take a group of undecided voters,and run the test. You can then make predictions about how their votes will come out,in the absence of all the advertising. Thats what you want to know. Now of course,there is advertising. You can now target your advertising intelligently to have the maximum impact.

You can imagine that with further research you might even be able to show them your campaign ads and measure their responses to the test.You can also imagine showing them both ads and seeing if your ad is effective at countering their ad. If you can see how your ads and your opponents ads influence undecided voters,that would certainly be useful.

How the undecideds decide

Emily, Mpls., MN — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:10:14 GMT

They are also not taking third parties into account. A lot of undecideds vote for third parties because they don't like the major two party candidates. Unless I get a good reason to vote for one of the two during the debates, which I have not yet gotten, I will most likely cast a protest vote.

How the undecideds decide

Debbie, Topeka, Ks — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:08:38 GMT

I am an undecided and I am very tired of pundits saying race is the reason people might not want to vote for Obama. Give me a break! Just because I may not vote for him has nothing to do with race but everything to do with his judgement and those he has chosen to surround himself with. If he chooses Hillary-then he has my vote. If not, I will remain undecided.

How the undecideds decide

Bodach — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 02:43:01 GMT

I recently received a phone call from a polling group asking if I have decided whom I will most likely vote for. Since I am truly an independent voter (I am not now, nor have I every been a member of any political party), I told the caller that as of this moment there were no “Candidates” nominated from either of the major parties, hoping that they would accept the answer and go away. They did not but persisted with asking “whom I was most likely to support if they were to become the candidate?” Some people just can’t … “let sleeping dogs lie”. So I told them the truth.

After 44 years of voting in every election, I have decided that it is pointless. I have been voting for the lesser of two evils all these years only to discover that I have been misled and deceived by the person I voted for. In this election I have been given a choice between … Liberal and Ultra Liberal … therefore I shall NOT vote. We are constantly perplexed by the apathetic American voters. I am not one of these, just give me someone whom I can believe in and support. As of the moment none exist.

How the undecideds decide

Ray Gatewood, Copperas Cove, Texas — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 13:45:19 GMT

Socially, there are certain plausibility structures in which all of us live. It is not impossible but it is problematic for many independent voters to completely remove themselves from these forces that for so long has influenced their way of thinking. Obama being black may not fit the motif of the kind of leader that we have been so structured to accept. This doesn't mean that many of us independents can't vote for a black man, it does mean that for many non-black people, he may not fit the plausibility structures that has molded many of our lives. Therefore, Obama needs to work diligently to convince members of the voting public who cognitively recognize his giftedness and abilities, that he is one of them, and that he can fit inside of their social structures with out deconstructing their view of who and what a President should be.

Over the years, I have voted both Republican and Democrat, though I admit that I lean Republican. I am giving Obama a serious look and need to be convinced that he is indeed up to the task.

How the undecideds decide

claude -375024 — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 04:39:09 GMT

Undecided voters (Clintonites excluded) are likely more circumspect and more patient than party loyalists. They are probably better informed about policy and character. I changed my mind 3 times as I learned about the candidates, and saw through the smoke and mirrors. I don't rely on main stream media and opinion pieces, and use factcheck.org a lot.

How the undecideds decide

Undecided, Pittsburgh Pa — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 13:38:06 GMT

I am always undecided and actually made a commitment to vote for a person running this time round. Alas they didnt make it for reasons beyond my comprehension why others wouldnt have wanted this person as well. Anyway, I do not like either canidate that are in the running. I do agree with Obama on some of the things he has put out there, but what I cannot do is vote for someone who can decide on which race he wants to be when he is neither but a new race of biracial, how can he lead a country when he cant decide something as simple as that? And McCain he reminds me too much of Bush but Im thinking staying with the devil you know is better than the devil you dont. WE need a woman in the seat and poor Hilary got the shaft bigtime.

How the undecideds decide

ray smith, Shippensburg PA — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 04:45:05 GMT

Unless they got mickey mouse on their list of choices, I KNOW that they cannot predict my future presidential vote with any more or less surety than the goldfish in the window down the street!! Sure I have a some idea, but with bush policies killing my business and dem party shaninigans throwing the primary, I really am torn between a candidate who does not show an interest in bringing justice and accountability to the job and a candidate manipulated by a party that tossed proper vote accounting to the wind in front of my very eyes (made me sorry I joined their sorry ass party) and reniged on the chance to equate justice into those very same misdeeds....in short, how could anyones system know that I am personally looking for any sign of moral integrity from either party and then conclude that event x or y is the event that will cement my decision, it is not possible!!....not by math, physics or chemistry!! Maybe Voodoo perhaps, but vodoo vote rigging is also a crime..Soooo...I think they smell money, if they get paid upfront, what would they really care what the outcome is? Sorry if I offended anyones political views, I hope we can all fend off the perdicters till AFTER the election, then at least 50% can say to the loser..told ya so...in the meantime 100% of us can laugh at the candidates (on all sides) for their insincere pandering and unrealistic promises...hey vote for me, I promise to throw em all in jail and lower energy costs 75% by decree!!...till then, if enough of us refuse to commit then at least we will have some sort of an election with some sembelence of what it was intended to be....a choice of the people, by the people,for the people...NOT a boondoogle for a fistful of dollars by everyone ELSE!!! Thanks for listening, the BIG parties didn't.

How the undecideds decide

Donna, Maine — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:04:49 GMT

I look at all the info that I can find on all the candidates and decide based on that. I am an independent and the only thing that I am sure of is that I will vote even if it is a write in.

I would tell everyone to vote even if you just write in a name to show your support for who did not make it. That will do more than not voting at all.

Can you imagine what would happen if everyone who wanted Hillary Clinton wrote her onto the ballet instead of voting for McCain? So far that is how I am leaning because it will do more than not voting at all will do.

I feel betrayed about Obama because it was an artificial selection. He was not VOTED in by the majority of Democrats but appointed by the selected few that were bused to the events that selected him. If you supported the bigwig party members select then they would pay to get you to where your vote would count. If not then you had to either not go or pay for your own way.

I voted in the primary because the states that I have lived in allow an independent that right. I use my vote to show who I support of all the candidates. The state wide elections choose Hillary not Obama. If the states that did not do state wide elections had then we could have a different candidate based on the real views of the people.

He is the candidate because the party bosses wanted him not because the people did. That is why he must work to get my vote.

By not voting for McCain, I am showing that I will not support another 4 years for "let's help mine and Cheneys friends get richer at every elses expense" Bush policies.

If I vote for Obama then he has shown me that he will do as well as the last Democratic president did to aid the recover of the American people from the financial disaster of the Reagan years.

How the undecideds decide

Tim Rommes, Washington, UT — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 12:40:11 GMT

I couldn't tell from the article. Was the 70% success rate being correct for 7 out of every 10 individuals or some statistical averaging on the bulk? If you expected 50/50 and got 60/40 you could have been wrong on all but 10% so 10% correct or you could call it 80 - 83% correct. Or if your 50/50 swapped, everyone you expected to vote red voted blue and vice versa, it's 0% correct on an individual level but 100% correct on a bulk level.