Private space age turns 4

steve smyth — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:59:52 GMT

Except for the pic of Melville, and SS1 related info, you could have dragged out some Popular Science/Mechanics piece from 1957, changed a few of the company names, and gone with it.
Let me know when the Rocketeers have had their fill.
Then we can make predictions which will actually come true "in our lifetimes".
I guess falling into space, propelled by compressed air is still too far out for today's envisioneers.
DRAT!!!

Private space age turns 4

Wes Arnen — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 22:46:57 GMT

We may have been spoiled by the IT revolution into believing in impractical timetables for development. A computer program can crash and be terminated any number of times without much harm - all it has to do is work enough not to drive the user insane. A spaceship, however, is most assuredly *not* allowed to crash. So imagine how long it would take to develop a highly complex computer program if fatal errors were not an option at any point from beta-testing onward. I can easily see that taking 5 or 6 years.

Of course, things would move a lot faster if we were less scrupulous about human life, but unfortunately we always seem to care the most about that when it's most important to care less (in conquering space), and care the least when it's most important that we care more (in relating to other countries on Earth). A business has little choice in the matter, since it depeneds on consumer confidence, but if our government were willing to throw away lives opening space to mankind the way they throw away lives to conquer and oppress defenseless countries, we would already be out there in style.

Private space age turns 4

Craig Russell, Madison, Alabama — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 23:25:49 GMT

Americans in Orbit-50 Years Inc., a non-profit organization, plans to orbit two astrounauts in Feb. 2012.

Private space age turns 4

Frank Glover, Rochester, NY — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 15:34:01 GMT

"...you could have dragged out some Popular Science/Mechanics piece from 1957, changed a few of the company names, and gone with it."

Except that today's companies have actually cut metal and *flown* stuff, with more stuff (Falcon, SS2, Lynx, Genesis) actually under construction. Tey have, if nothing else, passed the 'Missouri' test.

Where are those 1957 guys?

Private space age turns 4

steve smyth — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:34:37 GMT

Frank...they are holding onto the last vestiges of NASA...don'tcha think?

Private space age turns 4

Space Emo, Makkathran, DV — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 21:55:02 GMT

"plans to orbit"
"making progress toward"
"NASA is trying to"
"busy ushering in the next stage"
"working on what could be considered"
"space tourists might be"

read that for decades

maybe someone might start trying to working on what could be considered some progress on ushering the next stage of trying to eventually waking me up
when there is

real news

Private space age turns 4

Super Duper — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 03:54:15 GMT

There are four highly credible firms with significant hardware, three of which have already reached space - Virgin Galactic (via Scaled Composites), SpaceX, Bigelow, and XCOR.

Virgin Galactic has a direct path because their vehicles are essentially complete - White Knight 2 unveils this summer, and SpaceShipTwo later in the year. This means flight testing on the WK2/SS2 vehicles begins a few months afterward, probably in early 2009, and it will likely be heavily publicized with videos and images. Barring a loss of vehicle during flight testing, or a problem fundamental to the design that needs to be reworked, commercial flight operations are virtually certain before 2011.

SpaceX has an upcoming launch of Falcon 1 in the next few weeks, and is scheduled to do a full 9-engine test fire for Falcon 9 this summer. Falcon 9 itself meanwhile is scheduled to be delivered to Cape Canaveral before the end of 2008, and launched in 2009, so unless something significantly untoward happens in the interim there will be a Falcon 9 launch in 2009. We'll have to see whether it succeeds or not, but there will be a launch.

Bigelow of course depends on further developments in crew transport capability, but of course SpaceX is approaching that through its COTS vehicle Dragon, and will handle it even faster if NASA exercises the COTS D option (ISS crew transport) and provides even more money. The beautiful part about this is that SpaceX is committed to Dragon whether or not NASA wants their services, and is fully capable of pursuing it without additional outside funding, so COTS funding can only accelerate the schedule of both Dragon and Bigelow. With COTS D, Musk says Dragon will be available to NASA in 2010, and without it by 2012/13, so (while this is a raw guess) I have to put the FAR outside timeline for manned Bigelow modules at 2015, which should more than account for any delay in Falcon 9.

XCOR, a company with a history of understating its capabilities, has stated that Lynx will be available on a (depressingly standard) 2-year timeframe. We can assume they're sincere but misguided about the difficulties, since their experience is in engines and not really so much in actual vehicle design and construction. However, they are extraordinarily efficient, so if we credit them with the raw talent of Scaled Composites, they should complete their vehicle on a significantly shorter timeline since Lynx is much simpler, smaller, and less powerful than WK2/SS2. The big unknown in their case is funding, which won't necessarily be easy to obtain just because they're good at what they do and are profitable. Call it 2012.

Private space age turns 4

Richard L. Charette, author Standish, Me. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 00:09:04 GMT

In the message somebody mentioned "black holes." I can promise you they are not "holes." They are made of stones with "seven sides." A term used in the Bible. They are the hardest objects in the universe and cannot be "seen" because they are of spirit just as God said He created us in His "own" image and likeness in Genesis 1: 27. He is a Spirit! They cannot be seen and they have a name in the Bible. Each one is Leviathan. When they grow big enough they contain an entire galaxy that will be "reborn." The universe is the ultimate recycler of all things. Believe me or not.

Private space age turns 4

matt — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 19:22:15 GMT

wow.... you might want to remember that not everybody shares your religion.

....aaaaand back on topic...

Private space age turns 4

Joe Carpenter — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 01:19:06 GMT

And....no one mentioned Black Holes in any of the foregoing. As Matt stated, not everybody shares your religion.