Flood forecasts in flux

Tricia Harrigan — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 22:44:07 GMT

"The U.S. taxpayers have to pay for these levees, and then when things fail, it's the taxpayer who has to pay again." says Professor Criss. And as a US taxpayer from California, I say no, no, no! No more paying for the problems of those who develop/build/make money from land that is clearly at risk. Enough already! And this goes for every part of the country: California and its slip-prove hills, fire dangers and earthquake faults; the Gulf Coast staters who build by the shore in hurricane country, and mid-westerners who build on clearly identified flood plains. Acts of God destruction is one thing and I'll help but not trouble caused by stupidity or greed. Tricia H

Flood forecasts in flux

steve smyth — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 23:19:47 GMT

It's time to acknowledge that much of the recent flooding is due to development.
Plateaus which historically were used for crops and grazing, are now covered with cardboard castles, fast growing turf with tough root systems, and macadam.
The amount of runoff from these areas is many times the amount from an absorbent field.
All it takes is one snag to corrupt the flow in one suddenly overfilled culvert, in one small creek upstream to create havoc on a river as large as The Delaware.
I saw it happen.
And, to top it all off, the water which does trickle through the grass and blacktop, into the aquifier, is poisoned by Petro Chems, Fertilizers, and Ecoli from the previous herd's waste...which is under all the new construction...unable to respire, compost, and do it's natural waste thing in normal fashion.
This effect had little to do with NOLA...that was 'Perfect Storm' kinda stuff...Hurricane, Tide, and the wrong place at the wrong time.
But, as we see communities floating downriver, piling up against 100 year old bridges throughout the country, we must look honestly at why there are no old pics of same from the last 100 years (with less homes, of course).
Take a look at the topography and regional demographics of areas hardest hit before the Global Warming/Wrath of God Folks get too carried away here.
We did it...all by ourselfs, Kids!

Flood forecasts in flux

Charles R Gaush, Hagerstown, MD — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:08:02 GMT

The big mistake is in saying that this is a "once in 500 year" flood because this will always be misinterpreted to mean that once it occurs, that's it for 500 years! This, of course, is absolutely wrong.

What it really means is that such a flood has a RANDOM CHANCE OF HAPPENING AT ANY TIME DURING THE 500 YEAR PERIOD. It could happen next month or next year or in 10 years or three times in 10 years. That's just the straight statistics; the changes in the topography and land use add to the complexity of the situation.

Such terms as a "500 year flood" should NOT be used under any circumstance!! It should be totally forbidden. Prohibit development in any floodplain and use levees as a last resort to contain the water to the flood plane. In other words, during times of very heavy precipitation, you have to let the river go where it wants; if you don't, you'll always have problems which the tax payer is going to get tired of paying for.

Flood forecasts in flux

Mallory Austin, Camanche, Iowa — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:10:15 GMT

As a resident of Iowa for the last 36 years, living along the Mississippi River, I have witnessed first hand the whole sale distruction of wetland, flood plains, waterways, and barrier vegetation. This is has been slow and subtle, hardly noticable to outsiders. Never the less, over the last 30 years this distruction has been insurmountable and irreversable.

We are now paying for these sins against nature.

Mal Austin

Flood forecasts in flux

Jason, Cedar Rapids IA — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 14:40:59 GMT

I'm sure most of their predictions are accurate but sometimes they are just plain wrong. In Cedar Rapids IA the original prediction was 22ft, the next day it was 25ft, the next day it was 32ft. Which is the difference between "the levee is fine" to "we need 8ft of sandbags or the neighborhood is gone". Of course, by the time the predictions were adjusted it was much too late for that kind of effort.

Flood forecasts in flux

Greg, Dubuque, Iowa — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 15:37:00 GMT

Note for Tricia,

Living in Iowa, in a part not affected directly by flood waters, I wouldn't want to have to pay for reconstruction of your city with my tax dollars when the next major quake hits. Everyone knows the entire state of California is earthquake prone so why is it even populated. So that it can be leveled to the ground only to be rebuilt again?

Flood forecasts in flux

Joe — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:04:46 GMT

We certainly can and should do more to predict floods and improve warnings. I believe this will be more important in the future as billions of gallons of fresh water are released into the atmosphere from melting glaciers and warming permafrost. At some point that water will come out as rain or snow somewhere on the planet. (disclaimer, I am not advocating global warming just observing what is happening)

Flood forecasts in flux

a p garcia — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:16:28 GMT

I am sure someone will say it is global warming that caused this. How can people make such a statement? Floods happen and we can't have perfect weather all the time. Sorry, Camelot lovers!

Flood forecasts in flux

Bill Hensley — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:40:32 GMT

Tricia Harrigan is right on target. If you want to build in a floodplain you should take the financial risk, not the taxpayer. I live in Houston and we have the same problem with coastal development. People want to build a beautiful beach house that's twenty yards from the Gulf and about three feet above sea level. I say, if you can afford to rebuild it when it gets destroyed then go ahead. It WILL get destroyed. The only question is when.

On the beach the problem is actually even worse. Texas law says that beaches are public property. Private property ends at the permanent vegetation line. Of course, every large storm erodes all the beaches. So not only can you end up with no house, you can end up with no land! The entire lot may be gone. People who build in such situations need to be aware of the risks and should not expect anyone else to subsidize them.

Flood forecasts in flux

Peggy Clark, Little Rock, AR — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 19:04:06 GMT

15 years since the last flood and everyone is supposed to pull up and leave. Come on. Home is home. When you get knocked down you get back up and start over. There is no guarantee that if people move away nothing else will happen to them, like tornadoes, earthquakes, droughts. Pay for this. We give money to everybody else why not use our tax dollars for us. Material things don't count in this world for they can be taken away at any time.

Flood forecasts in flux

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 19:11:10 GMT

From this Article - Given: It is man's fault. We build where floods happen, we build where earthquakes happen, we build where fires happen. Let's build where none of these happen. Opps -Can't happen. We all can't live on the head of a pin.

We can though, build in tune to what type environment we have surrounding us.
1. If we build in a flood plain, all homes should be built on rock pinnacles (like bridge bases) that are water flow proof and at least above the normal flood water stage. All homes should be required to have a minimum of 4 weeks supply of fresh potable water, food, their own electricity source (solar/w battery back-up) and sewage disposal. All these septic systems should be on their own above the flood plain and impervious to flooding. All towns that have flooding should be made to start hauling in pit run to raise the level of the town above flood stage. They bring in materials to build a levee, why not raise their buildings over a time period.
2. Those building on Earthquake faults or in areas suseptable to Earthquakes. All homes, businesses and other buildings must be on roller systems such as the Japanese have in their areas. Look on the net for other Earthquake proof homes and buildings. There are a ton of them out there.
3. Forest fires - We don't have many forest fires in the midwest anymore. We have what we call fire lanes cut throughout areas suceptable to fires such as pine plantations. These dirt areas prevent ground fires from spreading. We also have fire towers that locate smoke in areas we want to protect with DNR fire fighters on call like the army has the Delta force. Any smoke is investigated.
Out west you should have controlled burns each year to get rid of the debris that accumulates on the ground from the brush. You should have fire proof roofing, and a cleaned space of several hundred feet around each of the houses you build on the tops of those hills where the fire and heat go to naturally.

Yes it is man's fault. We just don't know how to live with nature.

Flood forecasts in flux

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 19:19:05 GMT

One other thought... Does anyone think it is going to get better when the Earth's population doubles in the next couple decades? We have to put the people somewhere. If we have to, then we need to start thinking about where that is and what happens when we build there. Here in the Midwest, houses go up on farm land that the farmer can make a fortune off of. That means the farms get smaller, the food availability gets less and the prices get higher for everything.

Flood forecasts in flux

pissed citizens — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:05:48 GMT

My heart goes out to everyone in this country that have had their lives, homes, and livelyhoods destroyed by natual disasters - floods, tornados, hurricanes, wildfires, mudslides, earthquakes, etc.
but I truly feel that what we are seeing is a direct response to the destruction we've been exporting since Bush declared war on the world. We are directly responsible for thousands of deaths and millions being displaced with our "war of terror".
I pray that God has mercy on us all and doesn't hold us all responsible for the actions of the few - who pretend to be leaders....

Flood forecasts in flux

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:10:47 GMT

Here's another thought for those out west looking for more water. Apparently each spring the Mississippi, Missouri and other rivers have too much water. We call them floods. Some people call them Damn floods. FEMA calls them disasters. They are naturally occuring and annually occuring.
The western states can't have the water from the Great Lakes (hurray) as we are hoping to pass legislation preventing the use of the lake's water outside our own area, but there isn't too many people that wouldn't let you have the flood waters from the Big Rivers as it just destroys towns along the way to the gulf of Mexico.
Build a big enough resevoir out there in a convenient spot and you can pump the flood waters each spring from the impounds we have on the Mississippi and Missouri to the resevoir for your annual use. California has enough money stashed away out there, (I hear all the movie stars are rich), that they could build the resevior and the pipeline for all the western states. No need for federal funding on this one. Sorry! But remember, you would only get the over flow each spring so use wisely.
To sweeten the deal, every 100 years, you would get a bonus amount of water for being so nice to those living along the rivers. Every 500 years you would receive an added bonus amount of water if you behave yourself and stay within the rules of the Constitution.

Flood forecasts in flux

Adam, Iowa — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 22:30:40 GMT

The reason this is happening is ironically because of trying to control the river. If left to nature, rivers have fairly frequent but minor floods which create large flood plains to spread out the water and a natural levee near the river edge to stop minor floods.

Since people have been making dams and large artificial levees, this natural process doesn't happen because the more frequent floods are prevented because of all the artificial controls. The problem is that this leads to major floods happening more often.