Betting on a future market

steve smyth — Thu, 15 May 2008 23:13:06 GMT

one good example would be to check and see how many people from here purchased upgrades to view the new telescope gadget...it's a predisposed market...obviously everyone here wants the thing.
how would you check something like that?
how easily can what should be a fairly discerning market be influenced to forget rational thought and just 'go after the toys'?
probably a way to correlate this info with voter predictions...everything else seems relevant, eh?

Betting on a future market

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:37:52 GMT

PRO:
How much of this is gambling versus doing your homework and making an educated decision? This may not be any less similar than the stock market.
CON:
Would Las Vegas lose their cut if the NYMEX, ICE, etc., gets into the game? Would they allow it? Gambling is big business and the money lost would not go down well with the casinos or those that control it behind the scenes unless they can make sure they get their percentage.
NEUTRAL:
Alan, you sure come up with some doozies to write about. To get more input you should have at least said something in your article about the odds of finding alien life sometime soon or how long the two mars rovers will last. (If the last was to be bet on, I want to know who it is that controls the on-off switch.) You would get more responses than from Steve or myself.

Betting on a future market

Holly Celerier, New Orleans, LA — Fri, 16 May 2008 07:30:05 GMT

Since the government, Wall Street and all the zillions of (misinformed) "experts" never get it right, I think it's a great idea to ask US, the people.
However, having said that, I think that several areas should not be allowed. Sporting events certainly as well as anything to do with "celebrities".
Political races should be fine, after all, aren't the candidates betting their money, (and other peoples' as well), on the chance to win? However, I think selling buttons, or any other product (derivative) associated with these predictive markets should be absolutely illegal. Also, you should not be able to sell your "shares" as you can with stocks.
After all, we all gamble daily with some of the things they are tracking such as vehicular accidents, pollution, oil prices, etc. Insurance companies are the biggest gamblers on the planet. Life insurance is a gamble about how long you are going to live! and you can bet, ooops, that they have invested in decades of data to determine exactly that, i.e. they are betting against you about when you are going to die and whether you'll ever be able to collect.
These predictive markets are primarily aimed at gathering information, not making a zillion dollars, so let them do what they do without over-regulation, but a yearly maximum of money allowed to be invested is essential. If this is not done, over-investment by only a few people would skew the data too much in one direction.
Hooray for capitalism on a tiny scale. With my income I think I might be able to scrape together $20 to invest myself just for the fun of it.

Betting on a future market

Bob McGann, Mechanicsville MD — Fri, 16 May 2008 16:53:46 GMT

Reminds me of the "Delphi" prediction markets that John Brunner had in his "Shockwave Rider". In that book, however, the U. S. Government was seen as using the markets to shape public opinion by shifting payouts to options that the Government wanted support for rather than letting the market run free.

Betting on a future market

George, Dallas, TX — Fri, 16 May 2008 23:25:31 GMT

I became interested in idea markets after reading Marc Stiegler's Earthweb. It's a very good book where the whole planet is under threat and Idea Markets are used to harness collective wisdom. Oh, and it's also a good read with interesting characters, humor, and plenty of action.

Betting on a future market

GDI, Houston, Texas — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 03:23:23 GMT

I wonder if a wealthy person could influence these prediction polls by providing funds to invest to hundreds or thousands of people and organizing these people to place bets on the candidates they want to win?

Betting on a future market

Vince, North Fort Myers, Florida — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:22:13 GMT

In response to your overall story... all stock market "futures" trading should be ended! If you want to bet that a particular company's stock has a bright future... Buy It! If not, Don't Buy It, or if you own it, Sell it. Then, your decision to Buy or Sell will have the effect on the stock that it should have. Period!