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Quantum fluctuations in space, science, exploration and other cosmic fields... served up regularly by MSNBC.com science editor Alan Boyle since 2002.

Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award and other honors; a contributor to "A Field Guide for Science Writers"; and a member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing.

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Marvelous view ... and a mystery

Posted: Thursday, November 12, 2009 7:58 PM by Alan Boyle


ESA
The OSIRIS camera on the European Space Agency's Rosetta spacecraft captured
this view of Earth from 393,000 miles (633,000 kilometers) away on Thursday.

Europe’s Rosetta spacecraft is making its final flyby past Earth on its way to an asteroid and a comet – a close encounter that should yield beautiful pictures of our home planet, and perhaps the answer to a cosmic mystery as well.

Rosetta was launched five years ago and has already made two gravitational flybys past Earth, plus one past Mars. Friday's flyby represents the final boost, slingshotting the probe past the asteroid Lutetia for a quick look next year, and then pushing it along to the main event at Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014.

When Rosetta arrives at its destination, it will send a small lander down to the comet's 2.4-mile-wide (4-kilometer-wide) icy nucleus and spend two years in orbit, studying Churyumov-Gerasimenko as it approaches the sun. Rosetta's 11 scientific instruments will record how the comet is transformed by the sun's warmth.

Time for more marvels
Rosetta has been snapping marvelous pictures of the sights it has encountered over the past five years, ranging from our round blue planet, the moon and a 3-D Mars to the asteroid Steins, a diamond-shaped space rock topped by a monster crater.

The current flyby has yielded yet another stunner: a view of a crescent Earth that highlights a slim slice of Antarctica and southern oceans, seen from 393,000 miles (633,000 kilometers) out. You can expect more pictures to be posted to the European Space Agency's Web site and the Rosetta blog as the encounter proceeds.

The climax comes around 2:45 a.m. ET (8:45 a.m. CET), when the spacecraft zooms past Earth at an altitude of 1,541 miles (2,481 kilometers), going 28,000 mph (45,000 kilometers per hour). Those are just rough estimates, of course. Mission controllers can monitor Rosetta's speed and location to an accuracy of millimeters. And that's where the mystery enters the picture.

Time for a mystery
For almost two decades, scientists have noticed slight anomalies in the effects of gravitational flybys on spacecraft speed. For example, when NASA's Galileo spacecraft swung past Earth in December 1990, controllers found that the probe picked up an extra 3.9 millimeters per second of speed over what was predicted by their calculations.

The NEAR Shoemaker asteroid probe got an extra boost of 13 millimeters per second during its own Earth flyby in 1998. But there were no anomalies noted outside the range of uncertainty during swingbys involving Cassini probe to Saturn and the Messenger probe to Mercury.

The discrepancies have been compared to the "Pioneer anomaly," another longstanding case in which the navigational numbers (this time involving the Pioneer 11 and 12 spacecraft) just didn't add up.

Rosetta itself registered an anomalous speed-up amounting to an extra 1.8 millimeters per second during its first Earth flyby in 2005 - but performed precisely as predicted during the second flyby in 2007. No one knows what will happen this time.

"It's a mystery as to what is happening with these gravity events," Trevor Morley, the Rosetta mission's lead flight dynamics specialist at ESA's European Space Operations Center, said in an ESA report on the anomalies. "Some studies have looked for answers in new interpretations of current physics. If this proves correct, it would be absolutely groundbreaking news."

The possible causes range from near-Earth tidal effects, atmospheric drag and radiation pressure to exotic concepts such as dark matter, dark energy or unexpected twists in the theory of relativity. One study suggests that relativistic time dilation would account for the discrepancies.  

Highly precise data will be recorded during the Rosetta flyby to determine whether the spacecraft speeds up or slows down more or less than predicted by the various theories. Ground stations in Australia, California and the Canary Islands are involved in the investigation.

"We are using as many ground stations as are available to maximize the amount of swingby data we record," Morley said. "The more data we get, the better the chance that we may eventually come up with an answer."

Update for 4:19 p.m. ET Nov. 13: The flyby went well, by all accounts, but it will take a while to analyze the precise velocity readings and determine whether or not Rosetta showed any of the mysterious anomalies this time around. The probe captured several more nice pictures of Earth. Check out the Rosetta blog for shots like this one of a cloud-covered North America, and these pictures of Earth's night side.


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Comments

Wow! That's just fascinating as usual.  Keep up the nice work Alan.
Could the added speed be due to the solar wind?
I thought that we had never solved the three object (three planet) problem, that is gravitational effects of more than two objects (chaos theory).  Isn't this just another example of the inability to accurately predict the effects of bodies other than the earth on the ship?  the moon? the sun?
If one would look at the location of the flyby's you would see that the ones that have an incrreased speed varient have all happend over the oceans where there are known Hydrite seeps.  The gass escaping from under the oceans interacts with the resistance coefficients as well as making any thruster nav adjustments.  Methane is explosive and will give a slight boost to orbital tajectory in interacting with this kind of Bull S***.  wonder how many people actually read this far?
Great Job Alan!
Speedup will probably be due to the presence of dark matter around the earth, creating additional gravity/mass to hyper-accelerate Rosetta.
It's probably not large enough, or equipped to catch solar wind.
It's probably not large enough, or equipped to catch solar wind.
Might the variation be do to the spacecraft getting a boost by flying along a magnetic field line?  Could explain the hit and miss results.  Great story, Alan.
It's great to see one of "our" (European) top spacecraft getting such accolades on an American blog. :-) One nitpick, though: The fly-by anomaly is probably not linked to the "Pioneer anomaly" which has all but disappeared by now thanks to a more thorough understanding of the way the Pioneer spacecraft were built and radiate heat away.
Each year around 40,000 tons of cosmic dust fall to earth. Wouldn't this cause the earth to weigh more thereby increasing the gravitational pull which could cause the deviation in the speed difference due to  increased gravity? I know it might be infinitesimal in the grand scheme of things but might be just enough to boost or slow down the speed of the spacecraft by a small fraction or two.
Is it global warming?
Cool stuff and mega boost@GO
For those of you who still think the world is flat!Lol.

Light and gravity and photons, See(Rolling ball effect theory), it is what makes the Hubble's lenses work at great distances. Each planet orbits the Sun in the same plane of a very exact gravity field. This gravity field is like the spokes of a bicycle wheel. Each planet it set about it's orbital rim a distance from the sun. This spoke is a gravity beam of photons pushing, and at the same time pulling, on each planet. The moon is a perfect example of this gravity at work. Each planet also has this same beam of light or photon beam that receives and reflects photons of light which gravity beams of photons push and pull on the earth when the earth crosses each spoke of light from each planet. The spoke could be thought of as a path or worm hole if you will. This is not fiction, so, I'll get to the point of interest. When an object in space traveling at a projected speed enters the path or spoke pathway from one of these planets or even the moons path of direct light, the push or pull in gravity will deviate the speed of the object. The objects gravity and "space weight" can change making it heaver or lighter and the pull of the earths gravity can speed it up or slow it down. The Sun, which has the strongest push or pull on the earth would increase the speed of the object when it passes between the Sun and earth. An example of conflict of gravity force would be when jupiter's light beam on the earth comes into a direct straight line with the earth and Sun. The earth being in the direct path of this light beam cast a small shadow on Jupiter like a lunar eclipse does on earth. This tug and push on the earth increases the flow of photons in the earths gravity field. The earth is like a battery that can only hold a full charge and then it discharges the excess photons of light. It shares its overload with the moon. The earth and moon push each other apart when this happens. Light gravity and the photons spoke'd beams are a force in a sea of space. Future space travel from planet to planet could be accomplished with a craft that can navigate on this spoke'd beam of light. May be even powered to ride this light beam of photons.  
Perhaps there's a downhill/uphill part of the track
Do they include dust/hydrogen clouds in the gravitation calculations? Also, the 'wind' resistance of a few atoms of hydrogen could really add up over time.
Since this involves gravitational pull, it seems there 'should be a slight difference in speed due to the 'shape' of the vehicle approaching the earth's atmosphere.
The best science can do is treat the universe as a computer program that must act as programmed every time.  First of all, we don't know every detail of the program.  Second, there is just too much code in even the smallest system for us to comprehend it.  And third, there are chances and variables that can never be accurately predetermined.  Our entire history of space flight has been overall successful missions full of flukes and anomolies.  And every time they bring up more questions than they answer.
It's a wonderful thing,
solar wind is good. what about the nearness to earth? how about where the moon is positioned, with a possible gravity additive to the slingshot effect?
Interesting article Alan!  Nice picture of Earth from Rosetta.  It will be nice when we can see some pictures of the asteroid it will visit and have a lander land on.  Thanks for sharing the new gravity anomaly that has scientists scratching their heads over their orbit calculations.  I'm sure they'll figure out what is causing their calculations to not match expectations.  Should lead to an even better understanding of gravity.
This is the type of anomoly that, sometimes, leads to great discovery.  Let's keep our fingers crossed.
there are many factors to consider in this - first think of a race car driving (this is constant with the wgt of the car and occupant) now if the speed is constant and as the object comes out of the turn there is a factor of +-.00087% for the gravitional pull and the air swurround the object at the time of the object coming out of the turn - hence the increase in the speed of the object in the flybys.  
Or is it the magnetosphere giving the probes a boost?? Very interesting.
I am sure the scientists have all ready looked at this. But I wonder if it is a combination of where the space craft passed over earth (ocean or mountains) and the placement of the moon and sun during the pastby.
Texting.....texting while in motion...even computers can't do it.  Cruising, sending pix, data, etc., not paying attention to speed.  When will we learn?
I read somewhere that lunar orbiting craft suffer from anomalies due to differences in the density of the crust. I wonder if differences in earths crust could be enough to account for these differences as well.

PS. Alan, will any of the close encounter be visible from the surface?

[ALAN ADDS: Sorry, it took me a while to get to the messages today ... If you go to the Rosetta blog I believe you'll find some imagery that was taken of the spacecraft in the night sky ... like these: http://webservices.esa.int/blog/post/5/894 ]
Has anyone considered boring things such as solar weather or geo-magnetic activity?  In other words, can moving magnetic fields accellerate or retard a spacecraft's speed?
Is anybody else picking up on the degree of precision involved in measuring a few MILLIMETERS per second out of thousands of KILOMETERS per hour?

4 in 120,000,000 if my math is about right.

And doing it from 2,500 kilometers away, at that!  Somebody deserves a major attaboy!  Proper Job, folks.
It's Bush's fault

B. Obama
Nice Picture
my vote is on the gravitational influence of the moon (like the tides)
I find it interesting that the speed seems to always increase over prediction.   Is it just earth that causes this speedup? Is just on the way in from deep space. if so Jake probably has the answer. If the craft is shielded from the sun in any fashion the solar wind would be diminished.
In their predictions, do they include the positions of the other planets, The Sun and the Moon?
If the sun is behind the earth the pull is greater; if it is behind the spacecraft the pull is weaker.
If the moon causes the tides..............
Jake's solar wind hypothesis sounds good to me. Another possibility could be the moon's added influence, particularly if the added speed is occasional.
In a time when people still believe in astrology, and other forms of pseudoscience, it is nice to see MSNBC focus on the real science of astronomy.

Thank you Alan Boyle and the Cosmic Log Team! You're work is appreciated.
Wow, cool stuff!

Jake: No, solar wind could not be the cause as the spacecraft spends about equal time flying towards the sun as it does away from the sun (up to this point at least), hence the net solar wind effect is 0. They are also measuring the boost over a very short timescale as the spacecraft slings around the earth.

The question I have is whether this effect is noticed on gravity assist swings around Mars or Venus as well.
Perhaps the anomolies are due to interactions with the Earth's magnetic field?
This is a wonderful article. I wonder if the time discrepancies might have anything to do with the possibility of our solar system being part of a binary system which Walter Cruttenden brings up in his book, "Lost Star of Myth and Time"?
Any relation between the anomolies and the relative speed of the pass-bys?
There's a big hunk of liquid iron at the earth's core.  It's possible that the iron is not exactly centered within the earth.  If that's the case, then the gravitational assist will vary depending on where the spacecraft is in relation to the iron core.
I would think it's because the earth doesn't have a consistent gravitational field - geologists use that to determine where oil might be located and whatnot - so the gravitational pull against the object isn't uniform across it's entire loop around the earth. But then again, I'd think that would cause more of a variation on the speed than just a few millimeters/sec.
We are all looking at it from the wrong angle. It could be our own wobble, which goes back to Pict's in motion. However not a constant occurence, the motion theory is in the ballpark.  The amount of time is also relevant. maybe an e-mail was coming in
and slowed the process. Either way when it gets to minutes or hours lets focus deeper


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