ABOUT COSMIC LOG

Quantum fluctuations in space, science, exploration and other cosmic fields... served up regularly by MSNBC.com science editor Alan Boyle since 2002.

Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award and other honors; a contributor to "A Field Guide for Science Writers"; and a member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing.

Check out Boyle's biography or send a message to Cosmic Log via cosmiclog@msnbc.com.



Doomsday case back in court

Posted: Thursday, February 05, 2009 5:19 PM by Alan Boyle


CERN
A worker prepares a replacement magnet for the Large Hadron Collider's ring.

The federal lawsuit against the world's largest particle-smasher may have been thrown out of court last year, but the plaintiffs have since filed an appeal, arguing that the judge was wrong when she said the U.S. legal system had no jurisdiction over the European science experiment.

The two plaintiffs, retired nuclear safety officer Walter Wagner and Spanish science writer Luis Sancho, had argued that full-scale operations at the Large Hadron Collider carried a risk of creating globe-gobbling black holes or other cosmic catastrophes. Those fears have been knocked down in a series of safety studies and research papers - including one that was put out just a couple of weeks ago.

Nevertheless, Sancho and Wagner are soldiering on.

Less than a month after U.S. District Judge Helen Gillmor dismissed the case in Honolulu back in September, the plaintiffs filed a notice of appeal with the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. Their first brief in the case was due this week, and in that document, Sancho and Wagner take issue with Gillmor's ruling that the federal government did not play a major role in the European-led project. A copy of the brief was forwarded to me by James Tankersley, whose LHC Facts Web site is sympathetic to the plaintiffs' cause.

The brief rehashes the plaintiffs' worries about the collider. For a review of the scientific issues, you can check out this "Discovery or Doom" story, part of our special report on "The Big Bang Machine." But because the case was thrown out on legal rather than scientific grounds, the bulk of this week's brief dwells on the legal issues.

In a nutshell, the plaintiffs say the federal government's contribution of $531 million to LHC construction over more than 11 years, plus the U.S. consultative role on the project, are factors that add up to a "major federal action."

The judge ruled that the involvement was not a major federal action because the United States was not a voting member of Europe's CERN research council, and because the $531 million paled in comparison with CERN's $5 billion-plus contribution. (Most estimates currently run even higher, to a total construction cost of $10 billion.)

Judge Gillmor said that if the U.S. participation did not rise to the level of a major federal action, the federal court system did not have jurisdiction. At the end of her ruling, she strongly hinted that if the LHC's detractors wanted to stop U.S. involvement in the project, their main recourse should be to sway Congress. The plaintiffs, however, want the case to proceed in federal court.

The brief may be posted at some point to Wagner's LHCDefense Web site. Federal attorneys are due to file their own brief next month. Meanwhile, repairs are continuing on the LHC's magnet ring, which broke down shortly after its official startup in September. CERN says the repairs should be finished sometime this summer, leading to the collider's restart.

If this case follows the pattern set by Wagner's earlier challenges of the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider, the latest appeal is likely to be turned down on narrow legal grounds, perhaps even before the restart. There are likely to be multiple motions ahead, however.

In their brief, the plaintiffs say they want more hearings on the LHC's risks, and they won't be satisfied unless the LHC's experiments "can be proven to be impossible to destroy the Earth." The theoretical and experimental assurances that have been provided so far aren't good enough for them - and they may never be, when you consider how loath physicists are to say anything is absolutely impossible.

MAIN PAGE

Email this EMAIL THIS

Comments

barehanded welding...that's even more impressive than the proposed black hole...

[OK, maybe we shouldn't assume this guy is a welder (who in this case is holding what appears to be either a flashlight or a torch). I'll change the caption.]
I'd love to throw a curve in here. What if man's experimenting and research is all part of God's plan? What if God is using humans as His tool to bring about the Second Coming and the end of time? How can any mere mortal know what God has planned and when it is supposed to happen? I had to do this just for giggles. And if anyone needs to know I do believe in God. I just don't pretend to know everything He has planned.
Do those guys belong to the Flat Earth Society?
hey, Al...I assumed it was some stock pic sent with caption for your use...couldn't resist the poke, but it was intended for the CERNiac contingent...
besides, maybe there is some new super precise alloy welding method that does allow no gloves...there should be if we can duplicate a black hole, and put a man on the moon, eh?
why does it have to be some big fight to do something these days..
This is just another case of individuals in society that either were not nurtured enough from their mothers, or were ridiculed as children, thereby searching for eternal attention and favor from the masses.  My guess is that they are religious fanatics looking to discredit science and turn a profit, most likely in a book about their defeat of the "end of the world".  I just wish that sometimes judges would have a "are you kidding me clause" where they can dismiss the insane prior to public and media outbursts.
A black hole would certainly be a justifiable cure-all for the stupid mistakes humans have made through the millenia...Maximum warp, Scotty! The God particle is catching up!
This may be right in line with the 2012 end of the world predictions.
ill just throw a curveball here religion is crap the voices you here make you mad we must decide what will blow our world up im more scared of nuclear bombs and neutron bombs the evidence ive seen sugggest things that happen in nature that are around us are more powerful but maybe something weird might happen no one really knows but i tthink it will be ok
What is the critical mass for the initiation of a black hole? Once one has started, how do you stop it?  
What if they set Dec. 21st, 2012 as the restart date for the collider???  OMG!

The end of the world is near!!!!!

Ahh throw the switch.Lets see what happens.The worst can happen is the extra terrestrials will get a good laugh.
well, GOD said the world would not end, so I say beam me up scotty, this will be a hell of a ride. It will be intresting to see what develops out of this 10 billion dallor project. To bad we can't use the money for helping the world people. Really, what is the use in this project when we are already distroying the planet. Some scientist are to smart for thier own good.
Has anyone thought that a black hole is the only possible place to remove all those toxic assets from the financial system? I mean, if you must speculate, speculate BIG!  
There is nothing we can do about it one way or another.
Well, we are all going to die someday, maybe we'll all get to do it together!
Why 2012? 2 is the number of witness 0 is the number of regenerated man, (Saved individuals)10 is the number of the true church, so maybe it will be in 2010. the Time that God allowed for the human race to come to their sences, and serve Him was over in the year 2000. The last 8 years which actually belong in the mallimium reign of Christ, were given for our time of repentence but we didn't use it. In fact it is recorded, "I gave them time to repent, but they repented not!  Holy Bible." We will soon know, won't we! "God is, and is a rewarder of those who diligently seek Him"
Funny, there are particles that have already been accelerated to the speeds that CERN are attempting by other super massive cosmic entities; and, some of these particles find their way to the earth, as well as, all of the other celestial objects in the universe; and, collisions already occur in our upper atmosphere and on these other celestial objects.  Considering that the "god" particle is already a part of these cosmic interactions, and I have yet to be sucked into a "mini" black hole I can only conclude that Walter Wagner and Luis Sancho have ulterior motives. In other words, if these yahoos are correct, then it stands to reason that the entire universe would be filled with nothing but black holes and that is obviously not the case.
I imagine there were a lot of idiots clamouring about the effects of gasoline on fire and whether or not God would allow such an abomination to occur.

Grow up [...]  Stop letting your invisible friends decide how real people live our lives.

I say if a black hole is created, all we have to do is throw Barney Frank at it...he has to be good for something...
Particles collide with the earth all the time with those velocities and even higher ones. None of the planets have been swallowed up in a black hole or strange matter change reaction. Furthermore,small black holes evaporate very fast.
It turns out that black holes really are not that black. Due to quantum mechanical effects,they radiate energy,causing the black hole to get smaller. The smaller the black hole,the greater the rate of radiated energy. A black hole that small would disappear almost instantly.
I would say that makes it pretty much impossible.
Pywackett Thecat
While I'm fascinated by the questions that LHC may answer it also occurs to me that if they ACTUALLY knew what wae going to happen it wouldn't have been necessary to spend 5-10 BILLION dollars building it.
Just sit back and enjoy the ride!
Economic Stimulus = Black Hole!  LHC2012!
Thank you for the balanced articles as always Alan.

Perhaps the question should be what is a reasonable definition of impossible when contemplating possible existential (planetary) risks?

I thought this quote from SFGate.com on similar communication of risk issue was interesting:  "NASA exaggerates the reliability of its product to the point of fantasy," the late Richard Feynman, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, wrote in a federal report on the Challenger disaster.  When shuttle missions resumed in September 1988, NASA officials estimated the overall risk of catastrophic failure at 1 flight in 50."

Certainly no-one would purposely expose Earth to odds anywhere near 1 in 50, but what are the real odds?

If I only read two more sources on this topic, I might chose the recent blog discussion with Dr. Mike Brotherton here (http://www.mikebrotherton.com/?p=1004) and Dr. Eric Johnson's insightful legal blog here (http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2008/10/culture-and-ins.html).

Cheers

[1] SFGate.com, Latest assessment finds greater danger for shuttle (2005) http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/07/26/MNGESDTHBO1.DTL&type=printable
Wow!!! So many science haters over here. Grow up folks, science has always proven itself correct and all those religious people wrong. Actually, those very religious people have recourse to science to prove their own religion. Science has stopped mankind from being barbaric, and from doing stupid things. What has religion done, other than creating war and killing innocent people?

People have been 'predicting' the end of the world since i was a kid....no such thing EVER happened! Why dn't those religious people just go and live in a cave and pray day and and day out, eat raw meat, wear leaves and live just like our ancestors did? Stupidity has a limit. How old could those people be?

Have a nice day, folks.
It will either be the greatest boon to modern science or the end of civiliztion as we know it. Of course, nothing od consequence could also occur showing the world once again that we are our largest threat to oursleves
For you religious seers predicting this is the end, read your Bible-no one knows when.  

For you psuedo scientists out there-according to the science channel, a black hole already exists on earth.  It is called the Bermuda Triangle.

For all you science fiction fans-black hproduced in movies are for ENTERTAINMENT only.  Gravity so intense that light is sucked in and blacked out.  PLLLease!!!  An astromoner sees a black spot in space and it is suddenly a hole that suckks everything in and ... think about it.  All black holes are so far that observation is delayed by years.  In other words, what they see today happened years ago.  Doesn't that make you ask, why is there no discovery of something, anything anywhere moving into the black spot?

And besides that, if a hollywood black hole is created on earth the effects would be instantaneous relative to human timekeeping.  So what difference does it make?  SLUUURP. The End.
Man's technology has exceeded his grasp. - 'The World is not Enough'
("I'm slightly irritated, because this non-story is symptomatic of a larger mistrust in science, particularly in the US, which includes things like intelligent design. Anyone who thinks the LHC will destroy the world is a tw*t." Arrogant, deluded douchebag and CERN spokesmodel, Brian Cox.)
(September 24, 2008 - 'LHC on hold until spring of 2009' - PhysicsWorld.com: "The magnet failure last week at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) means that the accelerator will not be up and running again until early spring of 2009, say officials at CERN. To keep the project on schedule, the team running the accelerator near Geneva have decided to skip a planned test run at an intermediate energy and re-start the LHC in 2009 at the full beam energy of 7 TeV.") And begin creating Black Holes.
Zealous, jealous, Nobel Prize hungry Physicists are racing each other and stopping at nothing to try to find the supposed 'Higgs Boson'(aka God) Particle, among others, and are risking nothing less than the annihilation of the Earth and all Life in endless experiments hoping to prove a theory when urgent tangible problems face the planet. The European Organization for Nuclear Research(CERN) Large Hadron Collider(LHC) is the world's most powerful atom smasher that will soon be firing groups of billions of heavy subatomic particles at each other at nearly the speed of light to create Miniature Big Bangs producing Micro Black Holes, Strangelets, AntiMatter and other potentially cataclysmic phenomena as described below.
Particle physicists have run out of ideas and are at a dead end forcing them to take reckless chances with more and more powerful and costly machines to create new and never-seen-before, unstable and unknown matter while Astrophysicists, on the other hand, are advancing science and knowledge on a daily basis making new discoveries in these same areas by observing the universe, not experimenting with it and with your life. Einstein used Astronomy to prove his landmark general theory of relativity that, ironically, decribes, among other things, the Black Holes which the LHC is designed to produce at the hoped for rate of one per second.
The LHC is a dangerous gamble as CERN physicist Alvaro De Rújula in the BBC LHC documentary, 'The Six Billion Dollar Experiment', incredibly admits quote, "Will we find the Higgs particle at the LHC? That, of course, is the question. And the answer is, science is what we do when we don't know what we're doing." And CERN spokesmodel Brian Cox follows with this stunning quote, "the LHC is certainly, by far, the biggest jump into the unknown."
The CERN-LHC website Mainpage itself states: "There are many theories as to what will result from these collisions,..." Again, this is because they truly don't know what's going to happen. They are experimenting with forces they don't understand to obtain results they can't comprehend. If you think like most people do that 'They must know what they're doing' you could not be more wrong. Some people think similarly about medical Dr.s but consider this by way of comparison and example from JAMA: "A recent Institute of Medicine report quoted rates estimating that medical errors kill between 44,000 and 98,000 people a year in US hospitals." The second part of the CERN quote reads "...but what's for sure is that a brave new world of physics will emerge from the new accelerator,..." A molecularly changed or Black Hole consumed Lifeless World? The end of the quote reads "...as knowledge in particle physics goes on to describe the workings of the Universe." These experiments to date have so far produced infinitely more questions than answers but there isn't a particle physicist alive who wouldn't gladly trade his life to glimpse the "God particle", and sacrifice the rest of us with him. Reason and common sense will tell you that the risks far outweigh any potential(as CERN physicists themselves say) benefits.
This quote from National Geographic, "The hunt for the God particle", exactly sums this "science" up: "If all goes right, matter will be transformed by the violent collisions into wads of energy, which will in turn condense back into various intriguing types of particles, some of them never seen before. That's the essence of experimental particle physics: "You smash stuff together and see what other stuff comes out." Read about the "other stuff" below;
http://www.SaneScience.org
http://www.risk-evaluation-forum.org/anon6.htm
http://www.LHCFacts.org/
http://www.LHCDefense.org/
http://www.LHCConcerns.com/
Popular Mechanics - "World's Biggest Science Project Aims to Unlock 'God Particle'" - http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/extreme_machines/4216588.html"

[ALAN ADDS: Welcome back to the watering hole, SaneScience! The indications from CERN are that there will be a more gradual ramp-up this time, going to the 5 TeV per beam level by autumn 2010. That's more out of concern for making sure everything works right rather than out of concern for black holes. But a more gradual startup sequence makes a lot more sense to me.]
I feel bad for you. It seems as though you don't have any invisible friends. You are loved.
LOL JustAJoe Pasedena.  Great take on this.  I also like the science teacher's view.  I think humans are creative and destructive and our endless activity and requirement for energy is where our driving forces become unidentifiable.  I love seeing photos of galaxies that I could never dreamed were real.  I think this project is just an advanced effort to answer questions about reality. Admit the technology is pretty awesome.  Finding our limitations will not be the end of our attempt to surpass them!
I suppose the vast majority of people predicting "doom and gloom" have never taken an intro astronomy class or physics. A black hole is nothing more than unimaginable amounts of mass condensed into a very small point. How could the LHC, which is throwing around sub-atomic particles, manage to create enough mass to sustain a black hole? Sure, in theory, it's possible, but its also possible that an asteriod made of solid gold could land in my backyard...and we all know the odds of that happening. People need to put down their Bibles and Dan Brown novels and take some science classes.
I have been all for this however when they first turned it on and it had problems and had to be shut off that made me a little weary. I was wondering what REAL problems could happen to the surrounding area if it blew up? I am not a believer in the whole black hole swallowing up the earth theory, I was just wondering about local effects of the collider blowing up.
While I don't belive that the LHC would cause a catastrophe, we are certainly heading into areas of reasearch and development that could cause dire results for everyone (One good for instance: two scientists imbedded the Hansa Virus into a common cold virus- if it had escaped from the lab, it might very well have killed us all).

I think this is a test case for a very important issue about how the world must treat science that carries such enormous implications within the research and we must all realise that the consensus may not really have our best interests in mind.

Personally, I am expecting great things from the LHC.
Black Holes aren't cosmic vacuum cleaners, at least not any more than any other object.  I black hole's "suction" is its gravitational pull, which is related to its mass.  Therefore, a black hole from a dead star, for example isn't going to suck you in any faster than the star that died, because they weigh the same.  (And for what it's worth, getting sucked into a black hole and falling into a star make you equally dead, but I digress)

So what about LHC?  I'm not worried about it creating black holes at all.  More powerful collisions have regularly happened in our atmosphere for BILLIONS of years, and the Earth is still healthy.  Basically, there's more likely ways for the earth to perish.  Nuclear war still looms as the most probable cause of "doomsday".

Let's assume that the LHC DOES create a black hole, though.  So what?  Even if it doesn't evaporate almost immediately (due to Hawking radiation), does it really matter if a black hole is created?  At most, the black hole will have an initial mass of less than an atomic nucleus.  A black hole of this size exerts hardly any gravitional pull at all!  You don't find yourself suddenly "falling" toward the objects on your desk do you?  The box of tissues next to my computer is tremendously more massive than a LHC black hole, and I don't mysteriously fall into it.

A LHC black hole would be very very very tiny also.  If you compressed the sun to a black hole, it's event horizon would only be a few miles across, and if you compressed the entire earth, the event horizon would be less than an inch.  A black hole consisting of only a few subatomic particles?  Probably too small to even see.  The worst case scenario is that the black hole meanders in the space between atoms and the vast empty space between atomic nuclei and their electrons, sucking up a few here and there by shear luck.  I've read some estimates that if this were to happen, it would take as long as a trillion years before the black hole becomes a problem, and by then our dying sun will have burnt us to a cinder long past.
L Glass:  There isn't really a critical mass for creating a black hole but rather a critical density (and actually it's a critical energy density but that's a whole different topic).  

As far as stopping it goes, most scientists believe that these black holes will instantly evaporate.  Even if they don't, there really isn't any need to stop them.

The mass of any black wholes that could even theoretically be created at the LHC would be beyond tiny, less than an atom in fact.  Since gravity is based on mass (not density), even if they are black holes the gravity they produce will be minuscule and the size of their horizon much, much smaller than the size of an atom.  

In other words, the odds of them absorbing even a single atom are tiny (remember that most matter is actually empty space).  Even if they didn't evaporate on their own (which most scientists think they will) we produce millions of them the sun will still die before they cause any damage to the earth.
He shouldnt be welding on the dilithium containment vessel, he could cause a matter-anti matter anililation. OOOPsie!
Obviously you schmucks no absolutely nothing about welding, or you would not have posted the comment about bare-handedness. I've had to work TIG/MIG and sometimes even plain-old stick welding bare handed forever. Now, the ultraviolet light is a bummer, but otherwise I can't figure how you could carry on about it. Just try hand feeding fill-rod with gloves on, especially on delicate fitments using exotic alloys and such.
Well, isn't the idea of the black holes that are created so small that they would never be visible to the human eye.  The impression that I was given about these "black holes" is that they are so unstable that they won't last more than a second at most (likely micro seconds).
Why don't we all just wait a bit longer. Do a bit more research before doing anything drastic. Heck, we could could talk to steven hawking about the whole thing a bit more
Homer Simpson is a nuclear safety officer, right????  D’oh!
to Myron from Texas;

No it is not… this is because it is not the end, hence the word 'revelation'...a revealing…an epiphany...mental liberation...the world wont end they will figure out something that will make the word better… end of despair and hate… people will always be people…but we shall have a better sense of direction

Alan writes that James Tankersley has forwarded the reported appellate brief, but this still has not been filed on the relevant Appeals Docket #: 08-17389. The Deadline was Wednesday.

For people who claim their arguments from ignorance matter, they don't act meaningfully as if their arguments matter.

[ALAN ADDS: There can be a lag between the filing of documents to the court and their appearance on the electronic docket. Pro se appellants like Sancho and Wagner are not required to file their briefs electronically. In this case, the appellants are merely required to send in the brief by the specified deadline, and if asked, they must provide "proof of service" ... that is, some sort of certification that they did send the document by the specified date. Usually this is no big deal. I just spoke with the court clerk in S.F., and she said it may be that the brief is still sitting in an envelope somewhere. If they filed the brief electronically, then it would show up automatically on the electronic docket, but since they're not required to do so, the darn thing could still be in transit. So don't assume that they missed the deadline yet. It's not that easy.]  

Just had to say JK, there is no blak hole in the Bermuda Triangle, as a black hole is what remains after a star goes supernova. Now, unless we're all missing something; that means there isn't on on Earth. And yes, the density and mass of a black hole create an area of super gravity that does; in fact warp light. It has been proven that this is what happens, and experimentation with bending and warping light has been done.
And for that matter; the second they thought that a black hole had started forming, they would stop the accelerator, and the black hole wouldn't have developed enough mass to become self-sustaining.
I have checked, and while the brief is not visible on the Docket, I believe it exists. Whether it is slow in gettting to San Francico, wasn't formatted correctly with the case-number, etc, or is just slow in being recorded on the Docket is a matter of which I am ignorant, and you know I hate arguing from ignorance.
Well, well....from the little that I know about the origin of black holes - the amount of energy generated by a star 20 times bigger than our little sun will die and leave a black hole. I don't think the LHC, or the resulting particle collisions are capable of creating even a nano-fraction of that kind energy.., does anyone?
Do any of these people have spell check?
"The theoretical and experimental assurances that have been provided so far aren't good enough for them" and me either, WHERE IS THE PROOF, I am sick of hearing this is enough to guarantee world safety.

If this was true, then for example there would be no need to test fly a new plane design because on paper it is theoretically and wind tunnel experimentally assured the plane will not crash. So just load up the people and start flying it.

Alan Boyle your argument about the LHC doesn't work.
I just have a hard time believing that in a universe filled with actual black holes, quasars, neutron stars, magnetars, supernovae, super high energy cosmic rays, etc, etc, that ANYTHING we do in a little tiny collider using only enough energy to power a small city and a few million, or billion, hadrons is going to produce anything that hasn't been produced before, in much greater quantities, and at much higher energies. We're talking hypotheticals here, they haven't even made it to theory yet. - And bare handed welding isn't that bad, if you don't mind the sunburn. (Been there, done that.)
Lets just hope we dont find our limitations anytime soon. In the mean time lets just stick to the old rule of measure twice, cut once..


SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=1781943

Latest Tech & Science News

Syndicate This Site

Add Cosmic Log to your news reader:
live.com xml
myyahoo msn
bloglines newsgator
google