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X Prize extends its reach

Posted: Thursday, June 26, 2008 8:40 PM by Alan Boyle


Alex Wong / Getty Images file
Peter Diamandis says the X Prize
Foundation is going global.

The X Prize Foundation successfully pulled off a $10 million contest for the first privately developed spaceship and is offering tens of millions of dollars for feats ranging from mass-market genomes to moon missions. By purely monetary measures, today's announcement about the foundation's three-year, $7 million philanthropic deal with Britain's BT telecommunications giant may not rank as high. But the way X Prize founder Peter Diamandis sees it, this is just the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

"The X Prize is going global," Diamandis, the foundation's chairman, told me today.

He explained that until now, the California-based foundation's activities have been mostly U.S.-centric. "We have partnered with BT to take the X Prize to Europe and Asia, and South America, and we have an incredible partnership," he said.

Over the next three years, BT (a.k.a. British Telecom) will be providing $7 million in operating funds to the foundation, and also sharing its scientific and technological expertise as new X Prizes are rolled out.

Diamandis has said that the foundation wants to create two or three new prizes each year, focusing on five areas: exploration, life sciences, energy and the environment, education and global development. Today, Diamandis told me one or two prizes are in the works for unveiling by the end of the year.

The likeliest next X Prize will have to do with cancer research. Diamandis acknowledged that such a prize "is on the horizon," but didn't provide specifics.

"Also in life sciences, we're looking at human longevity, and what we internally call 'the bionic man,' the challenge to give a quadriplegic the ability to play a round of golf," he said.

Golf for the bionic man? That's just a theoretical example of how the X Prize programs try to bring blue-sky technological innovations down to earth. "It's about creating something that's simple, that a kid can talk about over the dinner table," Diamandis said.

Right now, the best-known and richest X Prize effort is the $30 million Google Lunar X Prize, which would reward the first privately funded teams to put a rover on the moon. Thirteen teams have registered so far, and lots of activity is being reported on the team forums.

Diamandis said the $10 million Archon X Prize for Genomics is also plugging along, with seven registered teams aiming to sequence 100 genomes in 10 days at a cost of no more than $10,000 each. The "Genome 100" will include celebrities and benefactors, as well as randomly selected members of the general public who may derive medical benefit from the exercise.

"The notion is that when you have very rapid full-genome sequencing and can eventually sequence the genomes of thousands of millions of individuals, you can create statistical databases that say everyone with this profile has the potential to develop adult-onset diabetes," Diamandis said, citing just one possible example. The genetic revelations could lead to new strategies for heading off such diseases.

"It's making medicine preventative rather than reactive," Diamandis said.

Then there's the $10 million Progressive Automotive X Prize, which would reward the development of commercially viable vehicles that get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. "We have over 90 teams that have signed letters of intent from 12 countries so far," Diamandis said. The next steps include finalizing the rules and selecting the cities where the X Prize races will take place in 2009 and 2010.

Diamandis said he was gratified to hear about GOP presumptive presidential candidate John McCain's proposal for a $300 million, federally funded prize for breakthroughs in battery technology - and he only wishes his likely Democratic opponent, Barack Obama, was more savvy about the prize paradigm.

"We have been working and will continue to work with both campaigns to educate them about the potential for incentive prizes to produce breakthroughs far beyond what government programs can do," he said.

The only drawback he sees in McCain's plan is that it focuses solely on one potential solution (battery storage capacity for electric vehicles and hybrids) to the exclusion of others (such as biofuels).

"One of the key attributes of an X Prize is not to choose the solution, but to identify the problem," he said. "What we really need are super-efficient cars. Whether that's done with batteries or better engines is to be determined."

Diamandis provided congressional testimony on the energy theme during the debate over the H-Prize for hydrogen-based energy breakthroughs, and at the time he said plenty of government agencies could benefit from a prize-fueled push. The X Prize Foundation already has been helping NASA manage multimillion-dollar prizes for spaceworthy activities, such as the Lunar Lander Challenge. So if McCain - or Obama, for that matter - came knocking at Diamandis' door looking for advice on an energy prize, he'd be glad to oblige.

"We are working with other agencies we cannot disclose yet," Diamandis told me. "If such a prize were to materialize, we'd love to help design it."

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The X-Prize Foundation needs to have another manned space prize in its portfolio to really get the public fired up, or hopefully even several.  Bigelow's prize is a joke, so there needs to be real leadership involved pushing the envelope in manned orbital space and beyond.  GLXP helps extend mankind's information sphere to the Moon, but does not directly extend its physical sphere, so there should also be pursuit of a manned lunar prize on an order sufficient to stimulate real competition.  

There could be a "vine of prizes" manned space firms could climb to push the boundaries, along with many supportive offshoots along the way.  Mainline prizes: Manned orbit, circumlunar, large-scale (mass-defined) unmanned lunar landing, manned lunar landing, and long-term lunar habitation (time-defined).  Possible supportive prizes: Docking, refueling, long-term space habitation, lunar ISRU (can be demonstrated robotically), on-orbit construction, cost-effective range facilities, capacity prizes (people or mass per unit time - could be many flights or a lot of people/mass on fewer flights), distance prizes, speed prizes, and long-term Fund Prizes started by anyone with definable and appropriate goals that grow in value over time until they're won.  At about 5% average ROI (a reasonable return even by "safe" markets' standards), a fund's value would roughly double every 20 years, yielding a fund 16 times its original value 100 years later if it hadn't been won.  A well-managed fund could have several times that growth.  Likewise, the funds dealing with benchmarks that move forward such as speed, distance, time, and capacity could be funded with perpetual funds from capital donations, pledges, and bequests.  The beauty about a pledge prize is that the donor doesn't have to pay unless someone wins.

There is a whole world of possibilities that should be explored.
Commander Dr. Haynes, CEO of BRN Spaceline celebrates Juneteenth with UFO

Commander Haynes displays his Haynes Saucer for the spectators and media after his flight during the celebration of Juneteenth this week in Denver Colorado.

Juneteenth is the anniversary designation marker commemorating the day when the last of the American slaves were finally declared free. Though Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation freed the slave two years early (1863) the disobedient slave owners of Galveston, Texas refused to respect this law until the Union Army forced their hand on the 19th of June 1865, two months after the Civil Wars conclusion marking the 360 degree return to leadership for a civilization of Kings and Queens who were enslaved for a brief moment in history.

Dr. Haynes and his airline, Blue Ridge Nebula Spaceline continual this 360 degree return to leadership transition by becoming the world first operation of its kind registered and certified by the FAA/ AST. Blue Ridge Nebula Spaceline is currently the only civilian space transportation firm with an operation prototype spaceship capable of single stage to Lunar landing, VTOL, Green flight characteristics. Next public flight of the Haynes Saucer commanded by Dr. Haynes will be at out 14th annual airline certification ceremonies in mid October.
As always you’re invited to come see our Haynes Saucer fly into history again and God bless you all.
OK, I usually get in too late to see any responces to my ideas, but any storage that can produce hydrogen could be sent back to natural gas companies like reverse metering with electric utilities. And how about flywheel tech as posible battery use?
The X-Prize going global is both a good and bad thing.  It is good because of increased competition.  It is also bad because of increased competition.  I believe what has made the X-Prize so successful is the fact that it is a competition where hard work and determination lead to great rewards.  Thus, competition is good.  However, another factor that has made X-Prize so successful is the real possibility of a reward, since the typical size of X-Prize competitions has been relatively small.  If the X-Prize goes global I hope they take into consideration that increased competition is not always a good thing.  That is, much like economic productivity, perhaps too many competitors can decrease the overall effectiveness of the x-prize.  Someone group may have a good idea, but because they know they are competing against many people, they realize their chances are diminished.  Thus, I believe a multi-tier style competition would be more effective as the number of competitors grows.  
Very interesting difference.  I like how Diamandis says they look at the problem and offer a prize for the best solution, not taking a possible solution and giving a prize for doing the best you can with it.  There are several ways to improve transportation costs, but which is best????
I think McCain's battery plan is a pretty good idea.  Better battery technology would be helpful in many areas.  Hopefully, any technology capable of storing more power in the same space would be scalable.  The problems would obviously be increased cost of electricity controlling the chemicals in the battery (unless we can figure out a really safe way to store electricity).  There's probably other stuff I'm overlooking too.  All the X-prize contests are fantastic in my opinion as well.  People should expect money from innovation anyway because of the profit from selling it, but the prizes definitely convince people to take more risks.
Duncan: "The X-Prize Foundation needs to have another manned space prize in its portfolio to really get the public fired up ..."

Someone expressed a similar thought here: http://www.hobbyspace.com/nucleus/index.php?itemid=7137

My reply is there, too, but basically it comes down to actually having the money.

I'll also note 2^5=32, and don't forget compounding in the math.

John: "If the X-Prize goes global I hope they take into consideration that increased competition is not always a good thing."

The X PRIZEs have always been global in the sense that you're using it (global competition).  They're using it in the sense that they'll be working with a non-U.S., and global, company with the corresponding implications.  

The factor that you're talking about (more competitors scaring off teams) has been seriously considered in academic Economics papers.  I suspect it might be more of a factor in a more accounting-oriented business environment (eg: replacing patents with a prize system), but it seems so far that with these prizes, teams often seem to thrive on the increased competition and even encourage each other.  In some cases more competitors means more publicity which they often like, and in others the teams are hoping that someone wins even if it might not be them because they're dedicated to the goal.
If one actually DOES THE NUMBERS, the near-future energy source with the biggest impact is nuclear. That generally means generating electricity. So promoting higher-capacity batteries (as McCain is doing) seems like a VERY GOOD IDEA, Mr. Diamandis notwithstanding.
Ray: "basically it comes down to actually having the money."

XPF shouldn't be afraid to investigate alternative fundraising structures, or take another look if they did so earlier in their history.  They've had one just-barely successful prize and may be overfitting their strategy to that "winning formula" of a single full-sponsorship donor per competition.  Topics their board should research: Matching-fund pools, strategic sponsorship coalitions, conditional pledges, long-term bond funds (the donor or a policy firm pays the penalties for early redemption if the prize is won), and plenty of other subjects that aren't occurring to me.  The most exciting of those in my opinion would be the matching-fund pools, because you can identify an anchor sponsor and then develop donors willing to give x% of the prize-founding contribution up to a specified maximum, and that percentage can be whatever the donor wishes.  I'm sure someone has looked at whether "long tail" economics can apply to philanthropy, and what kind of money could be had from ordinary enthusiasts (like me) who might be willing to write up to a three-figure check IF it was accompanied by a large amount from an anchor sponsor.  A prize is just a way to leverage money, so it's important to pursue all useful maximization strategies.  BTW, you're right on the math, I just got my wires crossed.
Ray- "The X PRIZEs have always been global in the sense that you're using it. They're using it in the sense that they'll be working with a non-U.S., and global, company with the corresponding implications."

From http://www.xprize.org/, regarding the Google Lunar X-Prize:

"About 34% percent of those people identified themselves as being from the USA. Some of the potential teams did not voluntarily identify their country, but of those that did (just under two thirds), more than half were from the USA."

Typically a large percentage of people competing are from the US or have strong US ties. The article itself clearly says, "until now, the California-based foundation's activities have been mostly U.S.-centric."  Undoubtedly, the X-Prize going global, in the sense of partnering with BT will create in increase in non-US competitors, and thus an increase in the overall number of competitors.  This was the sense of going "global" I was using. You know what they say about assuming...

Ray:"The factor that you're talking about (more competitors scaring off teams) has been seriously considered in academic Economics papers.  I suspect it might be more of a factor in a more accounting-oriented business environment (eg: replacing patents with a prize system), but it seems so far that with these prizes, teams often seem to thrive on the increased competition and even encourage each other."

I am certain that academic papers have considered it in depth. I would like to think they are the theory explaining the observations.  Unfortunately, theory does not always accurately predict such chaotic systems (something many people have a hard time understanding). Until we observe the effects of increased global competition I do not think it is wise to speculate (hmmm, I have heard that word a lot recently...) about the effects.  The only thing we can do is be cautious. If we find that increased global competition is not as effective I hope the X-Prize will adapt the competition appropriately.  Adapting is something many organizations have a very hard time with. This becomes even more difficult as organizations grow.  However, I think the X-Prize has enormous potential and I am very excited about the possibilities.


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