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Quantum fluctuations in space, science, exploration and other cosmic fields... served up regularly by MSNBC.com science editor Alan Boyle since 2002.

Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award and other honors; a contributor to "A Field Guide for Science Writers"; and a member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing.

Check out Boyle's biography or send a message to Cosmic Log via cosmiclog@msnbc.com.



Doomsday debate update

Posted: Friday, May 30, 2008 3:50 PM by Alan Boyle


EIROforum / CERN
A hardhat worker is dwarfed by the inner workings of the Large Hadron
Collider's ATLAS detector. Click on the image for a larger version.

Could an atom-smasher really create Armageddon? You can delve into the subject with some summer reading as well as a real-life court case.

The next month should see further action in the doomsday lawsuit filed in March - the one claiming that mini-black holes from Europe's Large Hadron Collider could destroy the world. The plaintiffs in the case, Luis Sancho and Walter Wagner, want the CERN particle-physics center to put the $8 billion project on hold until more questions about such a scenario (and others) are answered to their satisfaction.

The federal government (that is, the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy and DOE-supported Fermilab) is one of the defendants in the case, and it's been served with a summons that requires a response by June 24. Wagner relayed word that Europe's CERN particle-physics center, the other major defendant, was served as well this week.

However, CERN spokesman James Gillies told me today he wasn't aware that any papers had been served. "We haven't received anything as yet," he said.

Gillies said scientists have finished updating a safety report that concludes the particle collider poses no danger of destroying the world. That report is to be presented to the CERN Council next month, and would then be released to the public, he said.

Between now and then, you can get your fix of doomsday speculation by reading Douglas Preston's "Blasphemy," this month's selection for the Cosmic Log Used-Book Club. The CLUB Club focuses on books with cosmic themes that should be available via secondhand-book sellers or your local library - and "Blasphemy" certainly fills the bill on the cosmic front.

The plot revolves (heh, heh) around a fictional particle accelerator that's even bigger than the Large Hadron Collider, built into a huge coal mine on land leased from the Navajos in Arizona. It pits a Svengali-like physicist and his loyal researchers against a doomsaying televangelist and his loyal acolytes, with a grizzled ex-CIA ex-monk in the middle.

It's not often that you come across a book that blends a murder mystery, a love story and a scientific thriller with visions of God (really!?) and an apocalyptic climax of biblical proportions.  But "Blasphemy" manages to put all that together, while also giving you a glimpse at what a proton accelerator actually does.

If you listen to the audio version, don't miss the after-the-book interview with Preston, conducted by Scientific American's John Rennie. You can hear the interview by clicking on a link from this Web page.

Do you have your own suggestions for summertime scientific pot-boilers? Herman Wouk's "A Hole in Texas," perhaps? Feel free to add your recommendations as comments below. If your choice becomes a CLUB Club selection, I'll send you a poster featuring cartoonist Roz Chast's particle art for Symmetry magazine.

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people are scared that this machine will prove GOD didnt create the world
James Hogan, in the book "Thrice Upon A Time", suggested something like this.  Thankfully there was a 'time machine' that could send messages back into the past to warn people NOT to start the machine that created the mini black holes.
Quack
It's hilarious that people actually think this will cause a black hole on earth!!  does anyone even understand the mass and power it takes to create a black hole?  Yes, the mass and power of a sun which in our solar system makes up 98% of the mass.  The small amount of particles being tested would never and could never create a black hole.  wow!  4th grade science!
Douglas Preston's "Blasphemy" was fantastic, one of his best novels.
All the world great srtuctures light up (Stone Hinge, the Pyramids, Easter Inland statues,) in the middle of year 2012 to show the location of the crystal skull to help the planet as it complete the cycle around the son and save or replenise the ozone layer as the world change its rotion.  As the world sceams armaggadon all the secert society (mason, Federal Reserve boys, ect.)find skulls only to signal the alien to soon before the cycle ends. Which the alien only take a selected few (the rapture)only to find out that god is real and he saves the ones left behind and the one on the ship return to a different earth that released all the unknown spies of animal that lifed deep within the earth and deep within the sea
Can't these stupid apocalyptic evangelists keep to themselves and stop trying to shoe fear and misquoted information down our throats?!
What folly, to think that man could cause "Doomday".

This project is a waste of money, talent and electricity.  How many hospitals, schools or universities could we build with this kind of funding?

Look, I know scientists like empirical research, but let's face it, nothing discovered in sub-atomic research is going to feed people, generate electricity, cure cancer or open doors to new technologies.

While enjoy understanding the universe, I accept that there are limits beyond which we can never know what is happening.

Let's say we find that there are teeny particles that rotate in a cha-cha fashion: one--two-- one-two-three!

So what?  Will it save the planet? feed a child? provide shelter or warmpth to the hunger and cold and homeless?

The world is far worse off from discovering the easy sub-atomic secrets.   Every generation that is ever born from now on will have to live with man-made terrors like radioactive pollution.

Sure, some people think that using atom bombs saved lives at the end of WWII, but every iota of radioactive material released on that day, and every A-bomb test since, is still floating in our aair, causing cancers.

Stop wasteful research!
CERN spokesman James Gillies says "the particle collider poses no danger of destroying the world"

I'm glad to hear that it is safe, because some scientists are saying that it poses a danger of destroying the world!


   “ …after 50 months the earth to a centimeter would have shrunk. It would be nothing more there, not only no more life, there but also the earth would be… a small black hole.
   -Prof. Dr. Otto E. Rössler

   “ … the scientists are fully aware that it is not a project without a grave risk to the life of the Earth.”
   -Dr. Raj Baldev

Learn more at LHCFacts.org
"Gillies said scientists have finished updating a safety report that concludes the particle collider poses no danger of destroying the world. That report is to be presented to the CERN Council next month, and would then be released to the public, he said."

If the report is completed, why not let the world's scientists peer review the report now?  The legal petition in US Federal Court is asking for Four months for the world's scientists, who share the potential risk, to review the safety report.  But I understand collisions are planned to begin in just a few months.
I would really like to read that report.

I understand that the LHC Safety Assessment Group (LSAG) agrees that if cosmic rays produce micro black holes, they will be relativistic and travel too fast to be captured by Earth's gravity, whereas if LHC head-on particle collisions produces micro black holes they will be non-relativistic with some that can be captured gravitationally, either by the Earth, or by the Sun.

LSAG is also not assuming Hawking Radiation (evaporation) is valid in their new safety study. We are still waiting for release of this report.

I wonder how they will prove reasonable safety?

JTankers
LHCFacts.org
This was posted on a blog today...

[quote="Taliesin"][quote]CommonSenseStopNow wrote:
If as if it apprears, CERN Scientists who may have concerns have been told not to voice them[/quote]

I believe [b]it was Jtankers himself who started that little urban legend[/b]. He claimed this in the xkcd thread , it kida blew up in his face when a few members there (who worked for cern, the ATLAS project i believe) stated that they had no such internal memo.
Clearly it was an attempt to villify the cern empolyees , elluding to secrets that the public shouldnt know etc etc....
its pretty funny really.
Btw , that xkcd thread is certanly worth a read. I recommend everyone who has not read it do so.
here it is.
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=11690[/quote]

Dear Taliesin,

That is an interesting accusation...
I try to be honest, accurate and factual in my statements, and your speculation [b]it is not correct[/b], it is part of the evidence in the legal action.
You should read the legal documents and arguments involved in this case, you might find some of them compelling.

In the [b]affidavit [/b]of Luis Sancho in Support of TRO and Preliminary Injuction, submitted to US Federal Court in Hawaii, Luis Sancho writes on page 18.  [url]http://www.lhcfacts.org/?cat=9[/url]

[quote="Luis Sancho - US Federal Court Affidavit "]CERN censors information on the risks involved.  Its Chief Scientific Officer, Mr. Engelen passed an internal memorandum to workers at CERN, asking them, regardless of personal opinion, to affirm in all interviews that there were no risks involved in the experiments, changing the previous assertion of ‘minimal risk’.  This happened as he himself explained in a 2007 interview in The New Yorker, due to the growing public fear. So instead of addressing the legitimate fears of the citizenship, CERN decided to hide all risks involved;
[/quote]

The following individual on that same thread was clearly concerned that a very unfavorable risk assessment that he made was not actually a risk assessment. [url]http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=11690&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=160#p622085[/url]

[quote="yy2bggggs"]We don't want to know if it's possible [b]we will blow up the world[/b]--because, quite frankly, we already know the answer. And the answer is, quite frankly, despite all the testing we will ever do--yes.[b] It's possible[/b]. That doesn't help us.

   What we want to know is [b]if we are going to destroy the world[/b]. And we [b]can't know this with certainty[/b], but in reality, [b]we don't really care[/b] about certainty. We care about whether or not it's probable--that is, likely, that we will [b]destroy the world[/b]. So again,[b] possibility--irrelevant. Likelihood--key[/b].[/quote]

[quote="JTankers"]
How good are CERN scientists at playing Texas Hold'em poker?
My impression is that CERN is about to go "all in" on a pair of Kings.
([i]Part of risk analysis is how big are the consequences if you lose. I think nature was dealt a pair of Aces, CERN might still win, but I think the odds are against them/us/all of us.[/i])[/quote]

[quote="yy2bggggs"][b]You're misinterpreting what I typed[/b]. Reread it, very carefully. This has [b]nothing to do with risk analysis[/b] (about which you're wrong anyway), and everything to do with possibility being irrelevant.[/quote]

By the way, do you know what the characters in the user ID yy2bggggs represent?

JTankers
LHCFacts.org
Wow - good stuff!

Thanks Alan! :)
Sweet! No more taxes!
I don't usually refere people to LHCConcerns.com anymore, because there is a full time presents of physics who say that they have worked for CERN and other full time opponents of a transparent peer reviewed safety study who say they do not.  But I think this blog is worth reading...

http://www.lhcconcerns.com/LHCConcerns/Forums/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=193&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=30#p2170

Former LHCConcerns.com co-moderator Taliesin:
"I believe... a few members there (who worked for cern, the ATLAS project i believe) stated that they had no such internal memo..."

From the xkcd blog:

"yy2bggggs wrote:We don't want to know if it's possible we will blow up the world--because, quite frankly, we already know the answer. And the answer is, quite frankly, despite all the testing we will ever do--yes. It's possible. That doesn't help us.

What we want to know is if we are going to destroy the world. And we can't know this with certainty, but in reality, we don't really care about certainty. We care about whether or not it's probable--that is, likely, that we will destroy the world. So again, possibility--irrelevant. Likelihood--key."


Based on my conversations with yy2bggggs, I believe that he is a CERN physicist from the xkcd blog, and guess what yy2bggggs stands for?

James Tankersley Jr.
Middleton,WI
LHCFacts.org
The point of the singletary is relative to the overall size of the gravty field it will create: Example: A black hole with the mass of a subatomic particle will only be able to create a gravity field powerful enough to interact with other less/equally dense subatomic particles. It's simple science really.
God, I hope it blows all of us up.

I really do.
Some things, sadly, seem never to change.  For all of the half century I have now lived, there was always a man-made doomsday on the horizon (notice how readily people accept 'man-made global warming, and ignore the 50 scientists who refute it for each who proclaims it).  When I was a child, we were on the verge of an ice age.  Nuclear war, waste, asteroids and comets (at least this has historical basis and is known to have occurred during the time of man).

Ignorance and superstition must, above all, fear knowledge.  Knowledge does the worst thing which can be done to ignorance and superstition … it ignores them completely.  They simply pass ignobly into forgotten irrelevance.

I have no great understanding of particle physics or M-Theory, but even a perfunctory examination demonstrates that any black hole created in such a device (or even in one many times larger) would evaporate though quantum processes which are well established, in an infinitesimal fraction of a second, long before it could gobble up any other atoms, let alone the planet.  Please feel free to refer to the works of Steven Hawking for more on this.

No, knowledge is the ‘bogey man’ here.  Learning and reason over power ignorance and even fear as the sun blasts away a shadow.  The shadow fears the light. The real danger is in the  fear, and in those who make use of it for their own means.  One would think that the history of the last 7 years would aptly demonstrate this.

Specifically, and in closing, I feel a need to address Aramis Rosicrux, who, if you are deserving of your chosen name, or even understand its meaning, should certainly know better.
I seem to recall that some of the scientists involved with the orignial atomic bomb were concerned that an atomic explosion could set the earth's atmosphere on fire.  Some things never change.
What is the big deal with you people, if these scientists want to do this and have the apparent huge funding for the project do you honestly think that a court hearing or other scientists are going to stop it????
What a fitting end to the Bush Dynasty, total annihilation!

I guess it couldn't hurt anymore than another four years of Conservative Politics!
Stephen,Dallas
Knowledge is not the bogey-man here. It's the same attitude that allowed the industry leaders responsible for radium paint to ignore the risks to their employees and pull a series of red herrings when the poisoned and dying women took them to court.  Those executives knew there was risk, but they felt it wasn't their risk.  They had a business to run, and more important fish to fry.
Ha Ha! My Collider is bigger than yours!
"nothing discovered in sub-atomic research is going to feed people, generate electricity, cure cancer or open doors to new technologies."

I've heard things like this before. But thoes were about things like the airplane, and Personal Computers and every body knows thoes people were just foolish primatives ;)
well if the world does get sucked up by a mini blackhole, australia's on the other side of the world so we will be the last one to be sucked up.. join us and spend your last few moments chilling out on a beach with a beer!
Sean F. Maloni writes "[micro black hole] will only be able to create a gravity field powerful enough to interact with other ... subatomic particles"

[LHCFacts.org Comment]:
"[Prof. Dr.] Rossler’s idea is that when a MBH accretes a charged particle, say electron, this will not go straight into the MBH, but will circulate around the MBH for a while, and by doing this, a magnetic field will be created which will attract positive and negative charged particles, each at the opposite poles of the MBH, thus accelerating the accretion rate."
Stephen writes: "any black hole ... would evaporate though quantum processes which are well established ... refer to the works of Steven Hawking for more on this. "

The LHC Safety Assessment Group does not assume that any micro black holes that might be created will evaporate.

The following PHDs and Professors of Math and Physics also argue that micro black holes might only grow:

   * Dr. Adam D. Helfer: Do black holes radiate? “this prediction rests on two dubious assumptions…“
   * “no compelling theoretical case for or against radiation by black holes“

   * Dr. William G. Unruh and Prof. Ralf Schützhold: On the Universality of the Hawking Effect “Therefore, whether real black holes emit Hawking radiation or not remains an open question“

   * Prof. V.A. Belinski: On the existence of quantum evaporation of a black hole “quote” “…the effect [Hawking Radiation] does not exist.“

   * Dr. Adam D. Helfer: QUANTUM NATURE OF BLACK HOLES “…the correct picture of a black hole is very different“
   * “…completely alters the picture drawn by Hawking“

Learn more at LHCFacts.org
In response to ryan;

You are incorrect about the ability of the CERN reactor to create black holes.  It CAN create black holes, they just happen to be VERY small.  SO small, that you could have 10 million of them within your body space and would never know it nor would you likely suffer ANY problems from the exposure. (your body is almost ALL empty space).  Since gravity's pull reduces exponentially (inverse squared), and since the black holes that are created are infinitesimally small, they will have no significant effect if any at all, on any surrounding matter.  Also, if you take into account Hawking radiation (black holes, like everything else in the universe, decay), the black holes will have a lifespan of less than a billionth of a second.  Not quite enough time to destroy the world....  

If you want to read a really cool book along the same lines as "Thrice upon a Time", try "Einstein's Bridge".  Great book if you like this sort of thing:)
"Look, I know scientists like empirical research, but let's face it, nothing discovered in sub-atomic research is going to feed people, generate electricity, cure cancer or open doors to new technologies."

Actually, it might well do all those things. Better understanding of quantum effects have, over the last 50 years, created and improved the transistor, and with it, allowed computers to become more than glorified calculators. That, in turn, has produced scientific breakthroughs in genetics (including agriculture, where dwarf wheat has already been helping about half of the planet meet its dietary needs for thirty+ years), medicine, power generation, etc.

None of it possible w/out quantum theory, none of it capable of being improved upon w/out continuing improvements on quantum theory.
DONT WE ALREADY HAVE A DOOMSDAY MACHINE AKA OUR CURRENT CONGRESS OR WAIT IT COULD JUST AS WELL BE AL GORE AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH RUN FOR YOUR LIVESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
That's it... I'm moving to Australia!
If there is no God why is it called the God particle
4th grade science. Oh no. People did say these words to Galileo friend. We cannot predict something we doesnt know. Until very recently black holes are thought to be very large but for a 1.5 mile black hole couple of months back. That 1.5 mile black hole wasn't ever found before, coz we dint have the technology. As of now we dont have any tech.to find a MBH as well.
Um, how would Earth or the Sun's mass or gravitation have any bearing on a singularity?... Regardless of the "size" of the singularity.

The problem with a tiny black hole (if that's even possible...) wouldn't be with getting 'captured' by a massive body. I would think. It'd be rather the other-way around. Wouldn't it?

And what if the expected 'observation' of micro-holes 'evaporating' rapidly, is actually an optical illusion of sorts?

I mean maybe they won't 'evaporate' so much as merely escape the frame of our ralativistic observations. Whatever that implies.
Wow!  To be at the "Creator's" front door... Isn't that where mankind has constantly strived to be?  You are there and many are afraid to knock.  Are we "worthy" of physical destruction is the hypothesis comes to be?  The knowledge that we have which even could alter mankind's existence can only be that knowledge which was wrought from the Creator anyway.  Fear nothing but fear itself...
"nothing discovered in sub-atomic research is going to feed people, generate electricity, cure cancer or open doors to new technologies."

What if they stumble across a way to produce Cold Fusion at a subatomic level or some other something other great thanks to the R&D being done here. A lot of the great discoveries have been on accident.

There's always going to be starving poor people, thanks to science there are a lot more people around to live and also be poor and starving it's a catch-22. You can't save the world and stopping all pure R&D just because it might not have an apparent beneficial prospect. If all this does is expand our knowledge of the universe in the short term we are all the better for it.

Should Columbus have stayed home because there were poor people in Europe? I'm tired of this boring argument people complain about science even if it's not inherently beneficial right off yet reap the benefits of it everyday.
Let's not forget what happened the last time you got to big for your britches in building the tower of babel...you are still a very primitive civilization who thinks it knows all their is know when actually you don't know what you don't know....now turn this thing off and stop bothering me...
With every hole regardless of type, there is either a bottom / ending or an opening on the other side. So either the Earth, as we know it, will cease to exist or we, get a free ride in the next level of existence.  Should be interesting.

Michio Kaku, the world's leading physicist, who's day job is completing Einstein's "theory of everything", states that this powerful machine might indeed help to create the first "new baby universe", the first and necessary step to solving the theory of everything.
Fascinating!
For all of you laypeople who are absolutely sure that it is impossible for the LHC to destroy the earth due to some theoretical miscalculation, two words: Castle Bravo.  Look it up.
Move to TX.  It, being another world, should be safe from this one getting sucked into a black hole...

Or, better yet, move the LHC to TX!  That way if it does create a black hole we have a triple win.  The earth is safe, TX gets blown up, and science learns something.
Dan:

Intentional initiation of a fusion explosion (oops lithium-7) is not comparable to the LHC.  Castle Bravo was intended to explode, big.  The LHC is not.

Lets save the false analogies, panic, and other irrational claims for when somebody decides to intentionally create a mini black hole.
You know, humans are a bunch of sheep. Someone in power says "jump", we all say "how high". How do you produce a conclusive saftey report for something that has never happened? The answer is: you can't. There's only one way to find out what will happen, and that is to turn on the machine. The risk associated with the particle accelerator is present and real, however unlikely or improbable, we heard it from the mouths of the scientists themselves. So now we're supposed to put our trust in scientists who are risking the lives of everyone and everything on earth based on theory and probability? Hmmmmm, makes me wonder about the collective sanity of the human race. Also, someone on here said it was simple grade 4 science that these 'mini black holes' could not be produced by the accelerator because there's not enough power? Well, as I recall, splitting an atom created a heck of alot of power. Makes me wonder what oblitterating particles will produce. To add, grade 4 science also taught me that black holes have gravity so great that light cannot escape, so all it would take is a 'mini black hole' to start a chain of events that could turn into disaster for everyone. Open your eyes people. Think for yourselves. If they have created a machine with the POTENTIAL to bring doomsday upon us (regardless of how small the risk), which side of the fence do you wanna be on?
I am a physicist myself, living in Greece and know 3 people involved in CERN and the specific project LHC.
First of all subatomic research is essential to understanding the world around us or proving theories.
And probably will provide the humanity with energy (and electricity) in the future.
If we ever had a single doubt of creating such a destructive thing as a black hole, we would burn the research and shoot ourselves for having that knowledge. The ethics of science are a little more strict these days.
If you check the energies involved in the experiment, you would understand that it wouldn't even bend the ST around it. And check again on tiny black holes...
I believe that genetically manipulated crops are more dangerous than this experiment.
Didn't Carlos Wu and Julian Foreward prove that a black hole WOULD suck up a planet if whomever had it dropped it?
For he gave his only begotten son so that all mankind could be saved. He created the earth and all its inhabitants in 7 days...He created mankind and all things seen and unseen. And man, now thinks he has invented a machine that will prove God created nothing ? no, what mankind will find will be the true opening to the gates of his hell or the acknowledgement that God is... now, flip the switch..
listen up oh great professors of ungodliness, your about to bend your knees to the new learning of Cq being, C Quantum....and as for God Particle ?

he's everywhere...he is because he is, was and forever will be... and inspired mankind to write you and all mankind the ingredients and directions to survival.
Whatever is written is questionable today. Truth is hard to come by. To look at the picture, seems to me they are trying to move something somewhere to another time or location. WAIT 30 yrs. maybe the real scoop will surface. We only hear or read what they want you to now.  
@Skeptic 1. What if you could make a toroid and then flatten it without causing seams or tears? Where is the "hole" in that doughnut? How 'BIG' is it?
  the amount of force a black hole exerts on a particular space is proportional to the amount of mass it contains. theories in the works suggest that everyday we are subject to small black holes and other anomalies.
the possibility that this will create spacial anamomies is certain, are they a threat. all current information about the topic points to no.    


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