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Quantum fluctuations in space, science, exploration and other cosmic fields... served up regularly by MSNBC.com science editor Alan Boyle since 2002.

Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award and other honors; a contributor to "A Field Guide for Science Writers"; and a member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing.

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A plug for your future car

Posted: Monday, April 21, 2008 10:01 AM by Alan Boyle


Aptera / Auto X Prize
Click for slide show: Nine ideas for future cars.

The "Car Talk" radio guys go on a joke-filled quest to find the perfect car of the future in a TV show premiering on Earth Day. And the punch line is that the technology they're looking for is already available - for a price, that is.

"Car of the Future," airing Tuesday as part of PBS' "Nova" documentary series, marks the prime-time television debut of Tom and Ray Magliozzi, a.k.a. Click and Clack, the Tappet Brothers.

The brothers have made a name for themselves with a newspaper column and call-in radio show that blends folksy advice on auto maintenance with even folksier repartee and punnery. (For example, their credits list the accounts payable administrator as "Imelda Czechs" ... get it?)

That mix of the serious and the silly carries over to the TV show. Tom and Ray set the scene in their garage in Cambridge, Mass., where Tom's 1952 MG roadster just refuses to turn over.

"It sounds like a sick cow," Ray says.


Joe Seamans / WGBH Science Unit
A Mazda concept car goes on display at the Detroit
Auto Show, in a scene from "Car of the Future."

So the brothers hit the road, looking for an up-to-date replacement. And we're not talking about just going down the street to the local car dealership: Tom and Ray check out the glitzy cars on display (and the glitzy showgirls displaying them) at the Detroit Auto Show.

"I thought you were interested in these models," Ray says.

"I am," Tom answers.

"I meant the cars," Ray quips.

They're less impressed by some of the high-powered, gas-gobbling vehicles at the show. "Who the hell needs 500 horsepower!?" Tom exclaims.

That sparks a tale that highlights past, present and future automotive technologies:

  • Is there a better way? Although federal regulations led to an increase in average gas mileage from 1975 to 1987, the average actually slipped downward after that time, due to the popularity of bigger, more powerful cars. Today, high gas prices, concerns about carbon emissions and the need for greater energy independence are generating fresh interest in more efficient vehicles (and a fresh upturn in mileage averages).

  • Is hydrogen the answer? The Magliozzi brothers travel to Iceland, where geothermal and hydro power are harnessed to produce electricity, which in turn is used to produce hydrogen for a fleet of experimental buses. The geopower/electricity/hydrogen scheme could eventually fuel all of Iceland's cars - but experts figure it will take 50 years to make the transition. Will hydrogen ever work for the United States and China? We'll see. 

  • What about ethanol? Yes, some of our energy needs can be met by ethanol, an alcohol replacement for gasoline. Currently, corn provides most of the raw material for U.S. producers, but that sets up a food-vs.-fuel problem. Tom and Ray gab with researcher Lee Lynd at Mascoma Corp., which is genetically engineering microbes to produce ethanol efficiently from cellulose rather than corn sugar. 

  • How about lighter, more efficient cars? Less than 1 percent of the energy contained in a car's gas tank actually goes to move the driver down the road. The other 99 percent is either lost through inefficiencies or ends up moving the car surrounding the driver. Tom and Ray learn about efforts to make internal combustion more efficient (at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, their alma mater) and to make ultralight, ultrastrong car bodies out of carbon composites (for the Rocky Mountain Institute's Hypercar project in Colorado).

  • Will electric hybrids save the day? Gas-electric hybrids like the Toyota Prius are already making a difference: Although they're more expensive to produce, they consume 30 percent less energy than gasoline-only cars and emit 30 percent less carbon. Tom and Ray take a test drive with Andy Frank, a researcher at the University of California at Davis who has pioneered plug-in electric hybrids.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have large banks of batteries that can be charged up overnight, meaning that the cars can go 40 to 60 miles before the gas-fueled engine kicks in. Frank figures that range would account for 90 percent of a typical driver's mileage. Some hybrids already have been converted to plug-in power, and Chevrolet's Volt plug-in should be ready for prime time by the end of 2010.

At America's current energy rates, running a plug-in hybrid is only one-fourth as costly as running a gasoline-only car, Frank says. He adds that the full benefit of plug-ins will be felt when the electricity comes from renewable sources such as wind turbines or roof-mounted solar cells.

"I think one of the things that this kind of car motivates is the possibility of personal wind and personal solar," Frank tells the "Car Talk" duo.

"My brother's been responsible for a lot of personal wind," Ray Magliozzi jokes.

By the end of the program, Tom is clearly sold. (On plug-ins, that is, not on making wind.) He's back at the garage, contemplating the next step.

"I've seen a lot of very interesting technology, and I know what I want," he says as he looks at his beloved MG. "I want to turn that into a plug-in hybrid."

And now ... the rest of the story
That may be the end of the documentary, but it's not necessarily the end for Tom's MG. In an interview last week, Frank told me it's technically possible to make Tom's dream come true.

"My message, fundamentally, is that the plug-in hybrid is something you can build right now," he said.

As an experiment, he has already taken a GM EV1 all-electric car (the car that was supposedly "killed" on the commercial market a decade ago) and converted it to a plug-in hybrid with a smaller electric motor and a 2-cylinder gasoline engine - all in the same space.

"The hybrid weighed 200 pounds less than the electric vehicle," Frank said. He said the juiced-up EV1 was so efficient that even when the car was running on gasoline power, it got 80 miles per gallon.

He told me he has converted nine cars to plug-in power in the course of his quarter-century of automotive research: Rather than being more complex, the plug-ins are simpler, in part because of UC-Davis' patented transmission system. "All of our cars have far fewer parts than a conventional car," Frank said.

Frank said he enjoyed hanging out with the Magliozzi brothers while "Car of the Future" was being shot - and so he's willing to offer Tom a dream of a plug-in deal for the mere sum of, say, $40,000 to $50,000.

"We'll be happy to convert that MG for them," he told me. "It'd be fun."

If you miss Tuesday's show, or if you don't get PBS in your corner of planet Earth, you can watch "Car of the Future" online starting Wednesday. For more about Click and Clack and future cars, check out Newsweek's Q&A with the Magliozzi brothers. And in case you missed it, here a report on the Progressive Automotive X Prize, which is offering $10 million in prizes for super-efficient, eco-friendly vehicles.

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Comments

"But wait, we don't grow sugar cane in the US."  
What??? WRONG.  Louisiana grows Sugar cane, lots of it.  
I watched the show last night.  No new insights there, but I did come away with a deeper respect for those small companies pushing the envelope.  The large car manufacturers are dragging their feet due to their extensive ties to the oil companies.  But they see the end in nearing.  It won't be long now until one of the large companies teams up with Tesla (Toyota would be my bet).  Let's not kid ourselves, electric is the way to go.  Every home, business, and gas station in America has electricity running to it.  The basic infrastucture is in place for recharging vehicles at any time or any place.  Wal-Mart will probably be a leader in this arena by setting up charging stations at their stores.  Hydrogen technology will be left behind because of the enormous infrastructure problems associated with getting fuel it to the public.  But no matter how you slice it, the truth of the matter is, we are at the mercy of the large oil companies.  They're still running the show and setting the timelines.  I just hope an affordable, comfortable, and safe car is available for me to purchase in my lifetime.
HYbrid? those cars are really expensive .However I didnt know you could charge them overnight and drive about 50 miles before using any gas at all. If im understanding correctly than if i bought a hybrid and charged it regularly I would never have to pay for gas ever again? Amazing. Gas is getting more and more expensive something needs to be done about it. You know I heard Japan runs off of all electric and hybrid cars, why cant we, our economy isnt flourishing by paying trillions for gas from foriegn countries. We need to become more independant, we need to make our own gas or make our own electric self chargeable cars to make our society more efficient. With the money saved from not buying gas I guarentee that fewer americans would be in debt.
K A Stevens..now that you have vented, take a look at the real situation since 1998 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm
I do trust these sources and not anti-Gore or 'greenie-wackjob" sites as indicators of what is.
I could point to more too. Here is a disturbing implication about the arctic

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24259159/

You make a lot of statements with no references. Just a lot of "anti-Gore" hot air.

Some of you should stop spouting off your founts of ignorance. Read and research a little more. Ethanol is a good solution, as long as it isn't made from corn. Ethanol made from sugarcane actually DOES deliver on the promise, requiring less energy to produce than can be gained from burning it and producing lower emissions over its entire lifecycle than gasoline. Ethanol from corn is not able to do this because a lot of energy goes into growing the massive ears of corn, most of which cannot be fermented into ethanol. Ethanol from cellulose would work well too. Improvements in some of the technologies that accompany IC engines can be improved to vastly improve the gas efficiency. Better spark plugs can deliver huge performance gains, including better fuel/air ratio and lower emissions. Even a better designed water pump can increase gas efficiency.

Some of you think that electric motors are vastly more efficient than IC. They aren't, they are just much cleaner. Converting electrical energy to mechanical or vice-versa results in a lot of losses. This knowledge has led some people to investigate other useful systems, such as storing braking energy as mechanical pressure, which can then be used to accelerate the car with far less loss than electrical regenerative braking.

Any of you ever hear about the bacteria that can digest oil? Have you heard about the ones that can produce oil? Less complex, energy dense ones than refined gasoline, but they can actually produce ones that don't need refining, and can probably produce less polluting fuels.

And don't forget biodiesel. Lots of opportunity there. There are many oils produced by plants and microbes that can be burned without refining (for dirtier burning, it's still cleaner to refine it). And not just from food crops. Check out jatropha. It's an African weed that can grow in marginal territory. The oil from its seeds can be combusted.

But, very simply, the most effective thing we can do is lower vehicle weight and power. Mass is the enemy of dynamic driving and of safety. That's right, we'd all be safer if people could abandon the viewpoint of "I want to be as safe as I can so I need a huge vehicle." While this greedy strategy makes some intuitive sense, greed kills. The system as a whole gets less safe, and continuing the same pattern in the search of better safety is a dead end.
so how many of you are paying over $4 a gallon for gas yet? Think that is going to go down? LOL
The electric car's day is coming. The Hybrid is a good stepping stone though. I wish I could afford a hybrid or build a pure electric right now. Some of the fastest ground vehicals are powered by electricicty and have been for years. They are called trains and get up to 240mph, who was balking about electrical high performance?
Btw anyone need a cad drafter to help design thier electric car?
Saw the show last night, it was interesting.

With the high cost of H2 storage and H2 fuel cells and H2 fuel, even the H2 proponents admit it would take decades, perhaps 50 years, before we could afford to drive H2 cars. Trouble is, plug-ins are already becoming affordable and will be commonplace long before H2 cars can reach affordable price. Since electricity will always be cheaper than H2, that means H2 cars will never catch on.

The future is electric.
RAY MAGLIOZZI: "If you can tell us without killing us, when can we expect this car?"

ANTHONY POSAWATZ (Vehicle Line Director, General Motors): "We will be ready when that battery is ready, there's no question in my mind."

RAY MAGLIOZZI: "So, five to seven years?"

ANTHONY POSAWATZ: "But, most importantly, when General Motors brings a product out like the Chevrolet Volt, it has to be a product that the battery will last 10 years, that'll be safe for the customers, and will meet all their needs. They don't want any compromises."

So because he does not deny it, he is basically  acknowledging the 5 to 7 year timeframe. Even though GM's official production  date
is late 2010. Sounds like we've caught them in a bit of greenwashing.






All electric vehicles are (wil be) appropriate for smaller personal use cars.  Heavy industry and construction vehicles will need the power that currently diesels provide.  The ability to refocuse use between the two will be essential until electric can provide both.
There's also the http://www.citycataircar.com that will be made by Zero Pollution Motors, the official representative of MDI (France).

I made this fan site to help promote these vehicles because of their ability to clean the air as they drive, and use zero fuel for 37 miles while driving under 35mph in urban areas.
One of the problems with hydrogen verses electricity is that hydrogen must be burned to create mechanical and when you create mechanical energy from a heat cycle, you lose 60+ of that energy in heat released to the out side environment. (The theoretical minimum heat loss is 50% for theoretical but impossibly efficient heat engine: The is called the Carnot heat cycle, a basic thermodynamic law).

If you generate electricity from heat (Hydroelectric is an exception to this rule) , you will typically lose 65- 70% of the total energy before it can be used in your home but it converts fairly efficiently to mechanical energy in an electric motor.  If you perform hydrolysis on Water (H20) you first have to apply the energy to break the hydrogen away from the water molecule and the you have to compress and then burn the hydrogen to convert it to mechanical energy.

Although I am not expert (I am an engineer, not a  physicist), I think your efficiency from hydrogen produced from electrolysis will be something less than 8%, where as the mechanical energy from an electric motor is closer to 25  (This is measuring from the fuel used to generate the electricity).

Here is my rough estimate of the efficiency (experts please chime in and correct me if I am off)

Electrical motor: 70% loss at the power plant and line loss, less than 10% loss to run the motor: so, overall = -.9 * 30 = 27%

Hydrogen created from electrolysis – 70% loss at the power plant and line loss, 25% loss to compression and another 65% loss burning the hydrogen and converting to mechanical energy: 0.3* .75*.35 = 8%

Just from the basic math, hydrogen will have to be at least 2.5x as costly in terms of energy efficiency, since a gas engine = 20% efficient on average and can be as high as the mid 30% at optimum operating points.




The conspiracy theories are really tiresome. Do you think the big oil and car companies are ripping off the consumer by continuing to sell the same old nasty, dirty, expensive products? Ok, here's what you need to do: start your own company and compete with them! In a free market, if you think of a product you want and it's not available that usually means one of four things:

1. Nobody has thought of it.
2. Nobody knows how to make it.
3. Consumers don't want it.
4. You can't make a profit on it.

The fact is, until recently oil has been cheap enough to out-compete alternative energy sources. That doesn't mean people haven't been trying to improve the technologies to lower costs. They have, and they're making progress. And now with the spike in oil prices things are beginning to take off.

But don't count on the oil companies to lead the way. Disruptive technologies are usually introduced by small startups or companies that come into a market from another industry. That doesn't mean the oil companies are stupid. They just have a different hand to play. Disruptive technologies are risky. They often have high startup costs and long lead times. If you had billions of barrels of oil reserves and oil prices were at an all time high, would you stop selling oil and start selling solar panels? I doubt it! But someone else who's not sitting on a big pile of oil looks at the rising oil prices, the dropping solar panel prices, and decides that might be a good business to be in. And that's the right choice for them.

Look, I want the oil companies to keep selling me gasoline. But I also want other companies to start developing and marketing cheaper alternatives. Let a thousand competitors bloom, to (mischievously) misquote Chairman Mao. There's no conspiracy here. There's opportunity, for those bold enough to take it.
The plain truth is ethanol while it might contribute to less dependence on oil products it will still produce CO2 as combustion almost always produces CO2. In other words it won't help global warming. any notion ethanol will help us is very wrong! What ever it is produce from will still not help.
I made a fan website for the North American version of MDI's <a href="http://www.citycataircar.com">Citycat</a> compressed air vehicle coming in 2010 by zeropollutionmotors.us

It has the most up-to-date information regarding the specifications of the U.S. vehicle.
I read once about a chemical process that could use Gasoline fossil fuel in a fuel cell that was under development. That way the evil Gas Empire can still keep selling gas at it's establishments with the infrastructure for delivery already in place & it would be hundreds of times more effecient. I haven't been able to successfully "google" it lately. Seems like it was in Popular Science or Scientific American
I'll worry about my vehicle's carbon emmissions when 3rd world countries like China quit spewing tons of chemical junk into the air everyday from their factories. This won't happen because we buy their stuff - it's cheaper since they don't play by the same rules we do. If that ever happens, maybe I'll consider putting cat converters on my car again.
In reply to Bill in Houston, number 4 is the big one when you considder major corporations. Major corporations will never do much with biodiesel for one simple reason, the fuel is everywhere. If I was determined enough and had a couple acres I could grow my own. Because it is easy for anyone to make the profit margin for biodiesel will always be very slim.
Light cars makes for better gas milage, but will make for more deaths on the highway.
From:
1. Too many 18 wheeler trucks
2. Other heavier vehicles traveling too fast (gunners like me)
3. Wind shear factor. Probably couldn't be driven on a windy day out west in the Dakotas.
4. No protection or support for occupants.
To remedy this, you would need:
1. More Rail service, cheaper but slower to reduce truck traffic.
2. Roads with high medians and high side walls to prevent head ons and animal accidents. (Deer get their own runways under the roads.
3. All first and secondary roads with turn out lanes for both directions (left and right).
4. Controlled driving using inroad and onboard sensors.
Why it won't happen, CHANGE, COST, CONSTRUCTION, CHAMPION.  
Industry won't want slowing of their service, government won't spend the money or if they did, would only waste it, takes too long to get it built and we don't have anyone that can take the lead.

This whole business of change has to come slowly and through the entrepreneural spirit and the consumer.  We can't rely on the government to enact or decree anything.  They would just screw it up worse than it was.
the high gas prices suck and hurt me as much as anyone else.I bitched and complained like everyone else,then i began to see news reports about companies working on elec cars,new advance solar.I now hope they go to 6 bucks a gallon.I know it is very hard on families(including my own)but i truly believe its the only way we will get off friggin oil.
whatever is cheaper is what we wil use.Even if oil goes to 10 bucks a barrel we would go through all this shot again and again.Well my friends I turly think within ten years most cars will be off gasoline.
I started thinking and looking at oil from an outside viewpoint and from everyones view. First i looked at the Oil Companys in foreign countries (imports) they drill oil for alot cheaper than anywhere else, yet they raise the price. The reason behind this is because they are selfish and want more money. But, have you noticed that gas prices are slowly dropping. Thats because we have scared those foreign countries by inventing a hybrid that doesn't require as much gas. They are now slowly dropping the prices hoping that we would "re-consider" an alternate fuel source. See if we create an alternate fuel source, america will slow its purchasing of oil almost to nothing. imagine it being like a VCR, the VCR is oil and the people who create the VCR are the foreign countries. A DVD player comes out and immediatly people buy the DVD player and stop using a VCR. Thus, we don't need a VCR or oil anymore. Over time after creating a alternate fuel, gas prices will slowly drop until gas stations convert into whatever the new technology of fuel requires. (or in electric cars, go out of buisness) I wish it was that easy, but over time it can be. We just have to be patient and understand that it takes time to make a huge advancement in technology. I believe what these gentleman are doing is creating a possible alternate source. If you don't like their ideas then come up with your own. I know im no Mechanic or engineer. I'm 18 years old was layed off from my job this past week and im stuck paying money for gas to go to college on top of all my other expenses. I'm feeling the crunch, but i comprehend that it will take time. The best we can do is wait for a new technology that will lower the expence of driving.
I bought an all electric vehicle and I love it. It just needs a little design advancement it cold weather driving for power. I think it is the way to go in the future. Is there any rebates on the vehicle for 2008.
Electric cars are a great idea, a much better idea than hydrogen cars. They are SAFE, clean, efficient, and they will only improve and develop over time. For an inspiring and groundbreaking book on electric cars, check out http://www.twocentspermile.com


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