The world in 2058

Posted: Friday, April 18, 2008 1:05 PM by Alan Boyle

Masumi Yajima / Univ. of Calgary / AFP file

A researcher checks a 3-D model of the human body, projected from the walls and floor of a virtual-reality room at the University of Calgary. Such
blends of medical and cybernetic innovation are likely to become more
widespread in the next 50 years. Click on the image for a larger version.

How will the world look in the year 2058? Sixty thinkers from around the world rise to that challenge in "The Way We Will Be 50 Years From Today," a collection of essays edited by longtime journalist Mike Wallace.

The consensus view is that we'll muddle through many of the issues that vex us today - including climate change and terror threats. And we'll hit upon so many medical and technological wonders that today's 50-year-olds will have a fair chance of finding out firsthand how the world will look in 2058.

The problem with having so many predictions of the future is that they can look like a collection of to-do lists: The most popular item on the checklist would be getting your complete genetic code analyzed, so that the doctors can give you custom-made medications for what ails you (or what might have ailed you without the drugs). And don't forget the cyber-implants: Several essayists, including inventor-futurist Ray Kurzweil, heralded the day when nanomachines would merge with our own bodies.

In addition to those well-traveled themes, "50 Years From Today" is jam-packed with nuggets of less conventional wisdom from experts in fields ranging from bioethics to counterterrorism. Here are a few examples:

Diseases ranging from Alzheimer's and Parkinson's to schizophrenia and bipolar disorder will be shown to be caused by infectious agents that take advantage of genetic predisposition, says psychiatrist E. Fuller Torrey, president of the Treatment Advocacy Center. Researchers will be surprised to find that many of those infectious agents are being transmitted from animals to humans. As a result, it will be uncommon to keep cats, birds or hamsters as pets - but we'll still have dogs around, because they've been "man's best friend" for so long that we've already adjusted to their infectious agents.
International terrorism will be brought under control because governments will realize counterterrorism is primarily a police function rather than a job for the military, says Ronald Noble, the secretary-general of Interpol. Passports and IDs will be linked to a global monitoring system, much as credit cards are today. "People will no longer be able to travel and engage in transactions with anonymity," thanks to surveillance and biometrics, he says. All this will pose "thorny issues" for a post-privacy era.
Several essayists said water will become as big a resource issue as petroleum is today. "We cannot go green without thinking blue," former White House chief of staff Leon Panetta and former Energy Secretary James Watkins say. Norman Borlaug, father of the "Green Revolution" in agriculture, says there will have to be a "Blue Revolution" to provide enough water for the planet's burgeoning population. Thus, cleaning up the oceans and providing fresh water should rank right up there with controlling greenhouse gases.
The outlook for longer life spans is a mixed bag: Kurzweil says the pace of life extension will outrun the passage of years, offering at least the possibility of an indeterminate life span 50 years from now. But trends also point to a decline in average life expectancy, due to the increased incidence of obesity among today's young people, says Wanda Jones, director of the Office on Women's Health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Pros and cons for longer life
Arthur Caplan, a columnist for msnbc.com and director of the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Bioethics, takes something of a middle road: In his essay, written from the point of view of his grandchild, he foresees a world where people can look forward to 140 years of high-quality life. (In a comic twist, the essay also bemoans Caplan's death, "frail and decrepit," at the young age of 80.)

Caplan, who is 58, told me he bases his prediction on the promise of regenerative medicine, as well as a better understanding of how lifestyle and genetics affect health. All these new technologies will raise new ethical issues, he acknowledged - for example, whether future generations will be genetically modified to fix defects and even introduce enhancements.

"People will have to think harder about whether they want to have kids the old-fashioned way," he said. "Why would you choose to take a random chance, knowing that your child would have a chance of having a defect but going ahead anyway? You start to get into blame and guilt about disability in a way that we don't really do now."

Greater longevity will also have social implications, he said. "You're not going to just have people living till 140 without changing your ideas about retirement, career, education, leisure, marriage, childrearing - also, even eligibility for social benefits. My hunch is that you're going to have to tack on a few more years before you get that senior discount card."

We should all have such problems, right?

The bad, the good and the ugly
In his essay, theoretical physicist Lawrence Krauss sorts through the "bad, the good and the ugly." For Krauss, the "bad" issues that have to be dealt with focus on climate change, energy shortages and nuclear weapons - and the "good" technologies ahead include medical breakthroughs, computer intelligence and virtual reality.

Dealing with the bad and taking advantage of the good will depend on whether society can bring an end to today's "ugly" struggle between science and religion, Krauss said. That observation is particularly apt for a week in which this year's presidential candidates passed up an opportunity to attend Science Debate 2008 - and in which a new movie titled "Expelled" renews the creationism-vs.-evolution argument.

"If we allow nonsense to be purveyed with impunity, then I think it feeds down - it's a slippery slope," Krauss told me. "We can't honestly address the serious problems we're going to face in the next 50 years until we're willing to accept the world the way it really is, without fear."

The next-to-the-last word
In "50 Years From Now," the first essayist to have his say is Vint Cerf, who was one of the founding fathers of the Internet almost 40 years ago. Today, he's vice president and chief Internet evangelist at Google, and one of the world's most widely consulted technological seers. He'll get the next-to-the-last word here.

Cerf foresees a world in which the infrastructure used today for transporting oil has been replaced by water tankers and water pipelines. The energy for a global electrical grid is provided by solar, wind and nuclear plants. Outposts are taking root on Mars and Titan, knit together by an Interplanetary Internet. And discoveries about the Higgs field and the nature of mass, pioneered by the Large Hadron Collider, are raising the possibility of inertialess travel at the speed of light.

Here's the e-mail exchange I had with Cerf this week, while he was traveling in Spain:

Q: A lot of the essays in the book, yours included, refer to the global warming / energy issue but imply that the problems have been overcome without putting a crimp in technological development. Why is your projection of life 50 years from now so optimistic on the rising technological trend line?

Vinton Cerf: I am an optimist by nature and believe strongly that technology can be brought to bear to create alternatives, even in crisis situations.

I just spent a half-day at the Bletchley Park museum near London. As you will recall, it was at Bletchley Park that a remarkable and diverse group of Britons produced some of the most critical intelligence of World War II through the use of the Bombe and Colossus special-purpose computers. They created alternatives where there were none before, as did the Americans with the Manhattan Project. I believe that the problem of global climate change will ultimately spur our global society to respond and while the condition does not appear to be reversible, we will find ways to adapt to it.

That there will be many negative side effects is not in dispute. Ways of life will change and in some cases degrade, but I believe that we will find ways to adapt. We may find that we have to move into underwater habitats. We will need to invest massively in more environmentally responsible energy production. And the world's ecological and economic systems will almost certainly change, too. But we will survive.

Q: I'm interested in your reference to the Higgs field and potential implications for new technologies, obviously because of the imminent startup of the Large Hadron Collider. You mention the E.E. Smith inertialess drive, which is really quite intriguing - that's something I hadn't heard before in reference to the LHC. Could you expand a bit on how understanding the theoretical underpinnings of inertial mass might lead to propulsion technologies (even in hand-waving terms)?

A: I am only a layman in this area, but it is my understanding that the Higgs field is what imbues other atomic particles with mass and that the Higgs boson is the particle that delivers the force of the field. If we had a way to manipulate the Higgs field, we might be able to establish inertialess conditions that could overcome Einstein's fundamental speed limitations.

Q: Could you provide a brief update on the Interplanetary Internet project?

A: The project is in its 10th year and it is now planned to carry out tests of the Interplanetary Protocols using the Deep Impact spacecraft that launched a probe into Comet Tempel 1 in October 2006. The spacecraft is still operational, and the plan is to upload the Delay Tolerant Networking protocols onto the onboard computer. NASA has given the project permission to test these protocols from Earth. A successful test will qualify the protocol for future deployments on production space missions. We also hope to carry out demonstrations and tests on board the international space station.

Q: Any thoughts on Ray Kurzweil's singularity? I'm not sure if you've seen his essay in the book, but it makes clear he thinks that the machines we build 50 years from now will be ... us. In your estimation, will artificial implants and enhancements have a significant impact on how we think of ourselves in 2058, or will it not be that big of a deal?

A: I continue to worry about the potential to upload ourselves into a silicon analog. I think Kurzweil could be right about the relative intelligence of the computers of the distant future, but a machine intelligence may not be commensurate with instantiation of a biological intelligence within the silicon version. However, I do agree that artificial implants will provide us with supranormal capabilities that are presently inaccessible to most humans today.

Q: I like the idea that trying to explain the new jobs of the future would be as difficult as trying to explain what a Webmaster does to the man in the 1950s gray flannel suit. Nevertheless, do you have any thoughts on what any of those jobs might be, even in very general terms? (E.g., virtual-worldmaster...)

A: I can imagine people actually working in virtual environments where productive, cooperative work is undertaken, and I think we will find people helping others to take advantage of masses of information that are inaccessible or too vast to process in real time today. With billions of Internet-enabled devices or at least programmable devices on the network, there seems to be ample room for new services that manage these devices to be developed. "Hi, I'm your virtual entertainment manager! What movies would you like to watch next week?"

Q: Do you think imagining the future, as you and your colleagues have done in this book, will help shape that future - or do you see this exercise as merely a fun, readable exercise of the imagination?

A: I think imaginative exercises can have a profound impact on the future - what you can imagine can sometimes turn into something you can figure out how to build. I hope that reading these essays, there will be a few young people who will realize some of the speculative ideas or discover more interesting ones of their own.

I said that Cerf would have the next-to-the-last word - and that's because, as always, it's you who have the last word. Feel free to pass along your predictions about the world in 2058 as comments below. If we can carry these electronic bits from one generation of the Internet to the next, there's a good chance we'll be able to find out who came closest to the truth.

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Comments

Homo Sapiens has had its run. Very short by the span of time but effectively destructive. Time for us to leave and mother nature to heal.

Mike Wood (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 7:00 AM)

Not a darn thing is going to change. 50-75 years ago they predicted flying cars, stellar cities and the like. Nothing has come of it. Why is this? No one wants to take responsibility for making a decision, no one wants progress in their backyard and we all are too greedy to part with our dear tech toys, gadgets and gizmos that we don't need.

There is a HUGE difference between need and want. I need a cell phone in case of emergencies. But I want an iPhone so I can look at videos and all those other stupid add ons that are nothing more than a waste of time and money for those companies peddling this crap. This is one example of buying things we don't need and the continuous desire to spend ourselves into a never ending sprial of debt.

No, don't expect any major changes, especially in the USA. China, Japan, Germany - these are the countries where you will see some breakthroughs in science, technology, conservation, climate control and alternative fuels. We here in the good old USA are too busy with our own in-fighting, not too mention fighting with innocent countries, to make any real progress on these important issues. The tube is right in front of us and I am afraid that America is heading straight down it. The Roman Empire fell and if America doesn't make some MAJOR chnages NOWthat is exactly where we are headed as well.

Doe Ray Mea (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 7:13 AM)

The final question is most engaging to me. Is it the process of forecasting the future that actually sets our sights on where we want to go? I think so.

Daltonsbriefs (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 9:52 AM)

While the world in 2058 is a truly fascinating topic, prognostication about the longer-term future can be fraught with peril for forecasters --- caveat emptor. For example, circa the mid-1980s many pundits were agonizing about the Japanese "owning the world" over the next 20 years. Under that scenario, Americans were all supposed to become "hamburger flippers" working for Japanese companies. All US manufacturing was going to be outsourced to Japan (it is true, much manufacturing was outsourced, but it went to China and other countries with even lower labor costs than Japan). Many thought that the US was fast eclipsing in its role as world leader, just like England after W.W.II. Worse yet, the US economy was widely thought to be on the verge of imminent collapse.

Fast forward from 1985 to 2008, just 20+ years later. Today, Japan's economy is still struggling somewhat; Russia is no longer a true superpower (the USSR having fallen in the early 1990s); the US is really the last remaining global military and economic superpower; and so forth.

Importantly, none of the 1980s’ apocalyptic chic scenarios for the US actually came to pass. On the contrary, it was the Japanese economy that sputtered on three cylinders and episodically flirted with depression for the past 20 years. By the mid 1990s, Japanese labor cost advantages had pretty much evaporated and they were forced to compete on a more level playing field with US technology companies. During the Clinton era of the 1990s, the US had one of the longest periods of uninterrupted economic growth and stock market appreciation in its history --- the personal computer and related software markets exploded; modern browsers were invented; the Internet arose; and the US high tech sector boomed in an unprecedented burst of innovation.

Except for the notebook/laptop market segments, where are all the 800 pound gorilla Japanese computer and software companies in 2008? Answer: almost nowhere to be seen. The only substantial markets in which Japanese companies typically continue to be ferocious, highly effective global competitors are in relatively mature industries such as the automobile and truck businesses.

The current rage among many commentators in 2008 is the notion that the US is about to be eclipsed by China. However, similar rhetoric about Japan was very fashionable twenty years ago. The media pundits were wrong then. They are probably wrong now. What is really happening today is that, quietly behind-the-scenes, labor/salary costs for qualified technical/business personnel in China have started to rise very rapidly --- very much like Japan in the late 1980s - early 1990s. In its own fuzzy, stumble, fumble way, is history about to take a similar path? As Mark Twain said, “History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

On the subject of the current global energy crisis that has everyone hand wringing: recent developments in various branches of physics, nanotechnology, surface chemistry, and materials science are synergistically cross-fertilizing each other. Stimulated by sky-high energy prices, this propitious confluence of leading-edge scientific research will probably catalyze a massive global burst of innovation involving a variety of different energy technologies. If this "burst" does occur over the next decade or so, as I suspect it probably will, our energy future may not be quite as bleak as the "peak oil" people, media pundits, and politicians currently like to portray it.

Lewis Larsen, Chicago, IL (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 9:57 AM)

Will we or will we not have Jetson's style picture telephones that everyone uses and can afford?

Chris Jefferson, LA (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 10:38 AM)

If it weren't for the fact that nearly all humans are dumber than hair, I would say that I cannot believe the idiocy I am reading. It is a stroke of EXTREMELY rare luck that humankind exists in the first place. If we are still here tomorrow we will have outlived our species' life expectancy. Do not think for one instant that the cause of global warming has anything to do with people. Only the most arrogant among us would make such a claim. I am afraid that Alabama was correct about the pertinant part of his comment: The world WAS a warmer place... all over, and the Earth's climate will NEVER stabilize unless you count being swallowed by the sun as stability. Please understand that life on Earth is an anomaly... an aberration... NOT NORMAL. The thing that will kill us all is the thing that kills most of us already... stupidity.

Gilgamesh, of Earth (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 10:52 AM)

Climate change, smilet change! They predicted a major hurricane season last year....it didn't happen. We had the coldest winter in ten years. Al Gore uses phoney computer immages from a movie and says this is the real thing. If the world was COOLING, would he tell me RUN my internal combustion engine to put MORE CO2 in the atmosphere? ?....well, that's his logic and the logic of all you elite liberals. The Cubs were going to the World Series in 1969...ha, ha!! You're all drunk. I'm still going fishing to Eagle River, WI this summer and will still be going 50 years from now....so excuse me, I have to go pack.

Bernard Kerman, Chicago, IL (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 11:04 AM)

In 50 years, humanity will be completing its downward slide from today's techonological wonder age back toward the smaller scale, pastoral, agrarian lifestyles of the 19th century. The oil age will have been over for about three decades, and we will have made it through most of the fallout resulting from the end. (I personally don't see a technology cheap and efficient enough to replace oil, so transportation networks will collapse, ending the global society.) The world population will be in the later stages of its prolonged reduction by several billions. Those of us surviving will be well on the way toward rebuilding a more sustainable society finally based on something other than everlasting economic growth.

In a word, the world won't be some techno wonderplace. It will be a hot, dark and difficult world, but well on its way toward becoming something much better for humanity.

Clint, Chicago, Illinois (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 12:22 PM)

One thing IS certain and that is: Nothing is certain! The delightful range (and rage) of this blog shows clearly that alot of people out there on the net are deeply concerned, deeply divided on what's gonna happen over the next 50 years. Similar discourses took place fifty years ago and climate change wasn't even a topic, nor was international terrorism. Computers were the size of refrigerator packing cases, silicon was something like sillyputty, wasn't it? Automobiles had fins but could neither fly nor swim. As a species we have the ability to look ahead and make plans for tomorrow. Even if many of us won't be here in fifty years(I'd be 117), we still plan for it. A nearbye residential street here in Cortez,CO was planned 90 years ago with a median, planted with rows of cottonwood, locust and white birch trees. Very pretty in any season. Those who labored over this effort are all dead. They did it for us who live here now. We, then, have to build now to CREATE the future for those who come after. Cooperation is the key to success in human endeavor. So long as Nations cannot cooperate, so long as TRILLIONS of dollars, euros, rubles, pesos, etc are devoted to military expepenses "necessary" to protect us from each other, WE will not make much progress. Expansion into other parts of the SolSystem? We could do that now if the constant dollar drain of the Pentagon was curtailed. The Moon is a step away and is a treasure trove of mineral riches waiting for us. The Sun is always shining somewhere, yet industrial-size solar power plants are few and far between. (Ever been in Nevada or out on the Mohave in mid July? How many solar power plants are in the Sahara? The Gobi? Taklamakan?)There is no shortage of available NRG! There is terrific shortage of intelligent cooperation on how best to use it. It is somehow tragic to consider that electricity is thought of as just another something you put a meter on and charge people to use! There is no shortage of water here on Earth, either. The very same monetary ihibitors apply. Own it, meter it, charge for it. It's mine, not yours. The Energy Wars for the control of oil and natural gas supplies have just begun. On the "far side" of the chaos and disaster looming, is a vast potential for human development in totally new social concepts.(huge, rosy and pollyanna). We have NOW to prepare for tomorrow and for those that will come after us.

h. c. petley, cortez, co (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 12:50 PM)

Well as a 23 year-old I sure am glad my generation isn't nearly as pessimistic as all of you, the representatives of the failed generation. That's right. Wasn't it your generation that took to the streets and promised waves of change only to morph into the pompous hypocrites you so vehemently opposed some 35 years ago??? Never have I read an article that I enjoyed reading soo much and was absolutely appalled by some of your responses. The rapture is coming, we're going to run out of oil, etc etc. You people make me sick to my stomach. The only constant in life is change. Our planet has changed and we have changed. Medical technology is advancing at light speed, and from what I hear there might be a couple bucks in it for the people that make it seeing the $2.3 trillion the failed healthcare system you people have created for my generation sucks from our lives every year. We are spending beaucoup bucks on learning about the health effects of living in space, on the moon, mars, etc. If you think my generation will continue to pay electric bills when NASA has triple layer solar panels waiting in warehouses, you are all crazy. The only problem I see is that my generation has yet to attain the positions of power in this world to clean up the mess of 'The Failed Generation.' We will live on and we will prevail but it will not be due to the efforts of pessimists or religious radicals.

Mike, Galloway, NJ (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 1:18 PM)

I particularly liked what Ramon Cervantes from Berzerkeley had to say. I think your post regarding doctors losing their jobs will not just be surgeons. If the prediction of shooting nutrients into our bodies instead of eating them comes true, then Dental Hygienists like myself won't have to clean teeth anymore. If laser eye surgery advances we may not need eye doctors anymore either. There are probably a multitude of similar scenarios. I'm not worried though because times change, values change, and just as many new jobs that currently do not exist will come about.

Space cruises are already here, not sure where you've been, but some rich folk have already been taken soires. As the cost comes down (as it always does) more and more will participate. Yes, space flight is only accessible to the priviledged as of now but that will change.

The crises that you speak of is scary. The blood shed in the middle east will (and has already) taken a huge toll on the United States causing us to lose "Greatest Country on Earth" status. It has already hurt us in many invisible ways that you have to read into to see.

The issue with water has more to do with atomic energy creation and possible contamination should atomic war break out. What both these scenarios do is permanently render water unpotable which would require insane filtration methods to bring them back. As the world gets larger and energy demands increase the most likely scenario is a return to cheap atomic energy which would not require any coal, petroleum, or wind.

Flying cars? I'll be the first in line to buy one if I could afford it! =D Too cool!

I think things will be dramatically different in 50 yrs due to advances in medicine and technology, however, there will still be much poverty and suffering in the world which will be cause for war and unrest.

As far as Christ coming back, it's not just something that Sunday church goers believe in. I'm buddhist and our version is "Maitreya Bodhisattva". I don't want to get too religious as many don't believe, however, I should note that even Native Indians like the Hopi believe a messiah is on the way, making it 3 out of 3 religions (tough be to wrong). One scary thought: the messiah comes when the world calls, when conditions are terrible (for some or many), when people are deluded. Out of the darkness, there comes light. I'm not looking forward to the darkness.

As far as lifespans being longer, how would that affect the age of your retirement? If you neglect to put some savings away that's your fault. Longer lifespan won't necessarily place a larger burden on the nation if those people are leading productive lives or are able to take care of themselves. With parallel improvements in medical technology and cosmetic surgery, no reason a 100 yr old could be living with 20 yr old hips and legs and the face of a 25 yr old.

Also, longer lifespan does not necessarily equate to an unsustainable larger world population. Back in the early 1900's families often had 5, 6 kids. Nowaways how many families have that many kids?

Privacy - you don't have any. You like to feel like you're secure but you're not. You posted on this board, your ISP knew where and when you logged on, what kind of Operating system you were using, what browser you were using, half a dozen websites noted when and from where you accessed their sites (and knew which sites you came from) as you clicked your way onto this thread. I could get your SS# if I really really wanted to and you could also get mine. There are people in Gov who could read all your emails if they wanted to.

I don't understand the paranoia. It' really annoying, like people who are scared to goto the dentist. There's little justification, even if the guy did you wrong once before.

99% of the people of the world are ordinary people going about their daily lives, they are not terrorists, they take care of their families, do their farming, telecommuting, whatever. You think someone wants to read their emails, their minds, their thoughts? What if you could, what would you do with that? There's nothing there unless you want to sell them something.

Read my emails go ahead, there's nothing there, it's all boring stuff that only I would understand anyways. Financial information? That restaurant you ate at last week? The waiter who took your credit card, he disappeared with it for a few minutes, do you know what he did with it? Get real people, if someone wants to do you wrong your screwed. Most people are good honest law abiding citizens, we're all in the same boat.

Steven, Foster City, CA (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 1:25 PM)

All of our prosperity is based on cheap oil. All of our farms run on diesel fuel, All of our food transportation runs on diesel fuel. In the next 10 years or less we will face a global economic meltdown unless we can curb our appetite for oil and replace oil with sustainable altenatives. The only biofuel that does not compete with food crops is hydroponically grown Algae. Google "Algae Biodiesel" for more info.

Lowell Rossetti Cochrane Canada (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 1:35 PM)

A standing ovation and two dozen flowers to Brian from Berkeley, for the most thoughtful, articulate, and beautifully phrased comment I could ever hope to read!
You make a valid point perfectly. There is only one thing I can add to that.
Amen, brother.

CJCarlin (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 2:00 PM)

By 20058 we will finally have decided to have an international court decide once and for all, using only hard evidence (no ancient books or writings or old stories)whether there is proof of a god. Its what we would do with the verdict that is worrying

David Russell, Scarborough, U.K. (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 2:45 PM)

Within the next 50 years, we will find out GOD is an acronym for the advanced civilization that visited Earth thousands of years ago. All the stories in the Bible will be recognized as almost literally true. Moses and other prophets talked to GOD through interstellar communication devices; space phones, if you will. Even the great biblical flood will be found that it was their experiment to change the Earth into a planet that could better sustain the pledging life they had propelled. The rumored “spiritual charm” that Nostradamus never let out of sight turns out to be one of those communicators. The Earth’s great religions, fearing widespread anarchy and perhaps a sudden loss of power and prestige, managed to grab that communicator after his death and hid it away with the other artifacts they horde. Yes, it is finally recognized that all the religions and even all the Earth’s people are not that much different from one another despite that seemingly vast ideological differences.

All the ancient prophesies will also come to pass when this civilization returns and finds how we have misused much or all of the gifts they had bestowed. There will be absolute meaning in the phrase “GOD helps us all”.

Seriously, regardless of whether it is advancing science and technology, or an extraterrestrial being tutorial, we will begin to understand the past much better, which will help us adapt to what is in the future.

W A Smith Jr (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 3:50 PM)

Brian Swiderski makes the most sense out of anyone thus far. [...] Good night,

Barton in Dallas (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 8:43 PM)

With the understanding that most predictions turn out wrong, I'll hazard a few 2058 of my own.

Most changes will be evolutionary, not revolutionary. We will see a lot of improved versions of current technology - better medicines, faster and more sophisticated computers, more efficient transportation. However I don't expect immortality, sentient computers or "faster than light" warpdrives or even flying cars, by 2058

By 2058 there won't be any permenent colonies on Mars or Luna, or anywhere but Earth. Sure, it will be technically possible to venture out, and there may even be a few interplanetary expeditions in the next 50 years, but it isn't economically feasable to support space colonies, there is no way to make a living out there, and space travel costs too much.

By 2058 we will have stabilized the human population, by necessity. Will that zero population growth be achieved by voluntarily limiting family size, or by draconian forced birth control and abortion, or the far worse death control by increased wars and famine and disease and crime? Too soon to tell, but right now it appears far too many favor death control over birth control.

CM, Modesto, CA (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 9:38 PM)

The world will see the rise of two highly-destructive, yet synergistic philosophies, both of which will aim to expand human potential at extreme rates. Either of these patterns of thought will develop life-models that will make civil unrest impossible through expansion of the self into self-governing. i.e., ideas such as rape, murder, theft, vandalism, and racism will break down due to a conversion from an economic focus to theological or patriarchal mindsets.

50 years from now, notions about the 'future' will change entirely. As much as we accredit technology with 'speeding things up,' we have actually slowed down countless processes over the past years - expect to see that next 'big bang' in the next five decades, expect to be part of the next social revolution.

Jacob Crane, Silverdale, Wash. (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 9:41 PM)

Dealing with the bad and taking advantage of the good will depend on whether society can bring an end to today's "ugly" struggle between science and religion, ..."If we allow nonsense to be purveyed with impunity, then I think it feeds down - it's a slippery slope," Krauss told me. "We can't honestly address the serious problems we're going to face in the next 50 years until we're willing to accept the world the way it really is, without fear."

Hilarious. The author seems to be unable to grasp the very issue he is lamenting. To think that Humans will somehow 'evolve' above arguing over things we are passionate about is absurd. To truly face the world the way it is, without fear, can easily be captured by saying: 'The more things change, the more they stay the same.'

In the next 50 years there will likely be a number of amazing technological advances that improve our quality of life and efficiency. But these technologies will be used by people, who will still have the same flaws, quirks, strengths, and catastrophic failures as we have always possessed.

Realist - Earth (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 10:07 PM)

Ok, if we want to start saving resources for fuel, here's one place to start,commercial hemp. Its perfect for biofuel, paper, good for the soil, its clean burning to help with the green house gases and was outlawed in the early 1900's why? It grows extremely quick and I bet serious money it will be used for most of the worlds ethanal instead of slow growing corn.The longer we wait though,the longer we purchase 117 a barrel.

Alex, California (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 10:24 PM)

We wont live till 2058. Jesus will return just as He promised.

Corey, Australia (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 10:47 PM)

Were colliding with extinction on a global scale. Politicians are actors, ego-maniacs, moneymongers. Special interest groups, the left and right are pulling us down. Advanced civilization, not even close. Money "In GOD we trust" what a shame. We dont stand a chance with humans in control. We better pray that an advanced race, not of this earth, is out there to save us from ourselves.

Ronnie, Detroit, Michigan (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 11:23 PM)

Earthquake.com is a good place to start. The pole shift will decimate or help dispose of a large part of earth's population. This happened before as well it will occur again!!! Get in a survivor mode where you can help mankind thru this period that earth is currently in!!! You can change the future with amateur radio!!! www.arrl.com dennis emerine new riegel,ohio

dennis emerine new riegel,ohio (Sent Saturday, April 19, 2008 11:40 PM)

whoever wins west vs east in religion wars that are undeniably imminent will determine the way of the world in 50 years. freedom vs oppression. it starts now...

james n (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 1:01 AM)

Technology will be so pervasive, it will be absolutely impossible to have even one free thought without others knowing it just as soon as it pops into your mind. Privacy will be a concept no one understands. You will be judged even on your thoughts.

Hugh Jant (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 1:46 AM)

Corey,

What on earth leads you to believe that the return of Christ will occur before 2058? It's been prepared for in every generation and era since the death and resurrection.. We are still here, and I think we are going to be here longer than you'd ever imagine..

Dave, Cincinnati, OH (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 7:00 AM)

"We can't honestly address the serious problems we're going to face in the next 50 years until we're willing to accept the world the way it really is, without fear."

That is a little harsh... Science can still contribute some benefit, even if it is just a shadow reality.

vikwv (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 8:18 AM)

Human kind will abandon or forgive any thoughts that make us separate from one another. It will be clear that peace is only achievable through benevolence on every side of the equation. People will participate in their local and national elections because of realizations of the state of the world through the New Democratized Media. Turning a profit on human life will be abandoned during massive global cooperation to solve the way that the world was in 2008 and before, an unsustainable, unfair world in which any sane person through their own human conscience would be appalled to participate in. Poisonous notions such as war and the devil will be tossed out. Our new politicians address real problems, and not tabloid issues. We have solved the world's inequalities and there is no need for terrorism. Hey, stranger things have happened. Don't forget we are floating on a big blue ball in space.

Kristin ten Broeck, New York (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 8:34 AM)

Read a Holy Bible.
No need to whirl around in a tizzy.
Yes your already monitored, we don't know exactly how much.

Yes, evil opprotunists want your mental health and control of your finances.Far be it for me to suggest measures or percentages.

That makes all people "paranoid"....

Well.....according to their psycologies and philosophies....You know "them".Yes, I'm serious and yes I'm a smart ass.Please read carefully.

Silly little baseball pickles.No I don't like pickle jars.:P

Jennifer Hunt, Spokane, WA (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 10:39 AM)

It would be nice to see the future but in the real world things do not look that good for a good future. If we could conquer greed then we might have a chance at a future. We deplete our natural resouces looking into space. We build giant homes for two, bigger and bigger equipment and cars.

Let's see what kind of world we could create instead of destroying it. The human world as we know live in will be destroyed by itself. Unless we find a way to contol ourselves rather than overpopulate this planet. There has got to be other beings out there in the universe and when they follow our history what will they be able to say that: Man's largest and biggest accomplishments were finding ways to destroy his own world and himself.

Half of our world starves each day and 99% of the world only really wants simple things food shelter family and love. Where do you stand? Roy in Montana

Roy Fritz, Butte, Montana (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 12:55 PM)

I hope I live to see 2050 (which is close enough to 2058). I fear for my kids' generation and potential grandkids' generation. Hopefully the message is out and a whole new consciousness will develop and prevail. Especially in the developing world where people need to be liberated and grow beyond the forces of oppression both politically and religiously. Global population has to reach an equilibrium somehow or we are doomed.

Thomas Ashby, Calgary (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 1:05 PM)

International terrorism will be brought under control because governments will realize counterterrorism is primarily a police function rather than a job for the military. If you haven't noticed and you live in a city, the police since 9/11 have been hiring and training for more advanced situations. Zero tolerance of anything will ultimatly be the power trip that is overcoming our current government, they will use fear to run your life. Passports and IDs will be linked to a global monitoring system, Big Brother is Watching You! Just like Mr. Orwell predicted. People will no longer be able to travel and engage in transactions with anonymity, thanks to surveillance and biometrics. Those camera's you see at all the intersections... they're not just for stopping speeders and light runners! Every hear of Facial Recognition Programs? As you sit at the light it will scan and track you... just as the police in this town, like to follow and run tags I see it go on everytime I drive. Always keep your eyes on them, they work for the government! With technology advancing in law enforcement... it scares me at the futre possibilities. As you can see I am one of those who enjoys his privacy and 2nd amendment right! I don't need people telling me how to live... I'm an American, I live in the land of the FREE RIGHT????

James M., Ft. Myers, Florida (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 1:37 PM)

Oh how utopian.....Miss congeniality would even cringe.

Some say "I just want to help out and make the world a more peaceful place to live"....but there are too many people in this world.What do we do about global population?Yack.Somehow I don't think that kind of person is as nice as they seem....

I just want to make this a shiny happy place....but I have found out that money isn't always used like its supposed to be, so people suffer all the time and no one ever has enough money to do anything even though we "give" so much!!Including giving our jobs to people overseas!.

Seesh!!!Where did it go?!!!

Who holds the keys to that money press thingy!We need to help people DON"T YOU CARE?! You said you cared!Yeah right.

Jennifer Hunt, Spokane, WA (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 3:48 PM)

NO! you will not get computers to "think" for themselves.They are limited to your ability to program them.Get on with your lives please.

Thats it!Who the heck came up with those gadgets that make it possible for people to hear clearly into houses from the outside.

Look people I like my privacy rights!
Kids can buy versions of those things.
Now THAT should freak out parents!

Jennifer Hunt, Spokane,WA (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 4:02 PM)

For those of you that feel we are too pessimistic about the future, one needs to read Spencer Johnson's book "Who Moved My Cheese." You will see the types of people there are in the world and how those that don't wait for the free cheese everyday are the ones that make a difference and will make life better and will survive. Where are these people that will be our salvation? They are the ones that want to make money. If it were only those that wish to make a utopia, it will never happen. I for one do not want to see a destroyed environment nor do I want to see big brother controlling our lives.

Also:
Think about what over population will do. There is 25% of the world's population in China, there is now over 25% in India. The water coming down the Ganges River is sacred to the Indian population. The river starts in China. The Chinese are going to dam it and control it for their burgeoning population and new found technology and industry. Both are nuclear armed. One is a rising economic power that is controlled by a dictatorship, one is a Democratically rising economic power steeped in religion. One doesn't believe in religion and suppresses it, one has close to 100% participation in religion and that river is their central theme. What do you think will happen as the world's population doubles and this water's spigot gets turned off or reduced?

Electricity produced by Nuclear energy will be our salvation, but "not in my back yard".
Wind only if it is located somewhere other than where there are tourists that don't want their view changed - Mr. Kennedy.
Solar only if it is cheap enough.
The biggest problem we have with the future is those that don't have a vision for the future are only waiting for the cheese pile to get bigger as it gets smaller.
We slaughter babies before they are born, the Nazis in 1939 tried to get rid of a certain population by genocide. The population continues to grow. We are allowing genocide to happen in Africa today. The population continues to grow. Maybe we just need to have an all out general free for all that will set us back 200 years. Maybe that is what the future will look like in 50 years.
We as humans will not look to the root cause of a problem but to a symptom. If we truely want to prevent Carbon dioxide to cause melting of the ice caps, we need to do something about it, but it will not be done. There in the book you will find out why.

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, WI (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 4:34 PM)

Over population is our biggest problem, and begets all the other problems. Our earth cannot sustain continued growth, no matter how green or blue we are. The garbage problem, the dieing off of species because there are too many people around and we are taking all of their habitats or polluting them so badly they die off. Its not just global warming or clean water, its too many people on the planet. NO matter what we do even if EVERYONE on the whole planet immediately cut back their use of fossil fuels, today right now, cut back their water usage by 50% right now today, we will still have the same problems because there are just too many of us on the planet with more being born every single second.

Liza R. Nahiku Hawaii (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 7:17 PM)

I think we should enjoy the now, as we go about creating our memories. The world population is out of control. This could be the main, and immediate issue. There are so many major planetary problems, so where does one begin? As the earths climate changes, so should OSHA, and their requirements. Considering the size of the U.S., as opposed to the area of the rest of the world, are we making that much of a difference? I live in the desert, and 99%(roughly), of the homes are built ABOVE GROUND! Then we use energy to heat and cool them. The major OIL & ENERGY companies have us held as hostages, by the wall socket and gas pump. The transition must be gradual, and with an informed effort. We should set an example to the world by solving our problems, and and sharing the knowledge with the countries that need the help. Rather than BOMBING them, let's help teach them the technologies on how to grow new crops for fuel and food.

Gerald Sherrick, Las Vegas , Nevada (Sent Sunday, April 20, 2008 8:34 PM)

If you want to know what the world will be like, not 50 years from now, but very soon, read the chilling Washington Post article 'The Government Is trying To Wrap It's Mind Around Yours' at:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2008/04/11/AR2008041103296.html

Hedgen Loken (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 12:27 AM)

As far as getting rid of cats and hamsters, the hamsters are okay to ban as pets, but cats really do take care of excess bird and rodent populations around the globe. Without them we will lose up to seventy percent of our food crops instead of the ten percent we lose now to these vermin. The bacteria that some cats spread is polymiosis a brain eating bacteria that settles in one area of the brain. There is strong evidence it causes scizophrenia. About seven percent of cats have it so if you are bitten or scratched you can play the odds which are 93% in your favor, or go into your doctor and get him to prescribe a powerful antibiotic for three weeks.

About longevity, if Kurzwiel is correct and we can effectively double our lifespans in our generation, there are many more issues than just retirement benefits. Like what happens to a population that can continue to reproduce for 140 years versus fify or sixty? If you think we have problems with electricity and potable water demand now, just imagine a world with twenty billion people in it.

On global warming, the jury is still out - really. 2007 was a record year for temperature change. The world's average temperature for last year dropped eight tenths of one degree, the largest single year's drop in forty thousand years. Now, this may only be a strange anomaly, or it is tangible proof we may be headed for a second Little Ice Age as some solar scientists are saying. One year is hardly a trend, but something is going on and we don't know if its going to be up or down. The last ice age killed off two of four species of man (Homo Erectus and Ergaster) and almost killed off Sapiens, us. In fact, about fifty thousand years ago, the Earth went through a period called the Great Die Off in which fifty percent of the world's species, both plant and animal died off. As a species, we can more easily handle a five or six degree rise in temperature than we can the same drop. I agree with the expert that we will survive global warming if that does indeed prove to be the trend, but you might want to consider buying some propery in the Kalahari Desert if the temperature begins to drop. Few will survive a ten degree drop in temperature that lasts any appreciable length of time.

One last thing. Coupled with inertialess travel, we are perhaps only fifteen to twenty years from having a working anti-gravity technology. Some incredible breakthroughs have been made the last five years that accelerated the estimated discovery time. Once anti-grav is a working reality, the world will be radically changed again. Every way we do things will be changed. Oh brave new world. What a wonderful time to be alive.

T. Hannibal Gay (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 5:10 AM)

No matter how long I live and how fast I travel, I don't think I will learn to look back on rap music with misty eyed nostalgia.

John, Charleston, WV (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 8:35 AM)

I think by 2058, we will have a spaceship that while not going at the speed of light (186,000 miles per second), but could go say 1000 miles per second. I also think the our DNA will be able to have specialized medicine for each person to correlate with our genes. I also think, we will have something like the Jetsons with flying machines. I also think that with the changing racial demographics of America, we could see a civil war by 2040.

Sam (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 9:12 AM)

I personally think that at the rate we're going now, that we'll be gone before 2058. With Global Warming in full effect, the world'll be completely flooded in a few years. Also, and not saying I believe in it, bu Nostradamus said the world'll end in 2012. If he's right, like he was about everything else, we'll be dead in 4 years.

I hope he's not right...

Betty Agnew, Virginia Beach, Virginia (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 9:23 AM)

Has anybody bothered to pick up a bible!!!!!! We won't be here 50 years from now.

cc, missouri (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 10:20 AM)

The "Armegeddon" theory is not just religious. Wasn't it the Mayans or some ancient civilization some pre-christ time ago that predicted the year 2012 to be the end? I'm not going to say that the prediction was crap and fictional, but surely there is some truth. It could be that it's not so much the end of civilization but the beginning to a new era.
Also, I have to agree with The Nerd about the volcanic eruptions. Being that I live in WY nothing is more apparent than the not so faithful "Old Faithful". This volcano is said to erupt once every 10,000 years or so and we are at that mark, and being that it is concave the effect will be much greater than that of a normal volcano. It will set off many earthquakes in the western United States, for severe and tragic results.
Pertaining to the article itself, I believe that traveling at the speed of light is a very real possiblity. We won't have to try and plant trees and crops on Mars if we're able to find other planets similar to this one. Technology is a beutiful and wonderous thing. Now if we could get the amount of effort put into space travel as is put into a new cellphone technology every day we'd probably be 10 times closer. Because lets face it, a cellphone that can calculate tips, access the internet, keep track of whatever it is that you find so important to keep track of.... really isn't that necessary. Oh and by the way, you're so worried about the government keeping track of you isn't that sort of what a cellphone does? Well atleast if you're married anyway.

Ally, Cheyenne, WY (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 10:42 AM)

"If the human species were any more innately technologically savvy, religion would never have existed. We'd have figured out enough of our world so quickly that we'd presume that every question could be answered by simply looking longer and harder. Dieties would be out of a job."

An interesting thought. But as I see it, most of humankind has almost a NEED for religion. It's built into us. There will be most likely never a time when we can explain everything, or understand everything.

Now, if that was true we could possibly have different religions than we have today. But I do not believe that mankind will ever lose religion.

Not quite. (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 10:43 AM)

For those concerned about oil or food in the future, i'd suggest 2 books, The Oil Endgame, and The Botany Desire. The solutions are here, waiting to be legitimized. It seems to me that selective perception runs rampant on this board, with a few well thought out, balanced opinions thrown in for good measure. Someguy should write a book about his opinion, and call it Demolition Man. Anybody concerned about a rampant big brother should take an American Government class. In it they would learn that if our damn country as a whole were more involved with the politics of their state representatives, we would have much more control over the policies of our legislative body. Pay attention people, congressmen and reps don't get into office and stay there by accident. Want to control the future? Control your government.

The Dude, La Crosse, WI (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 10:45 AM)

Does "Soylent Green" come to mind?

Patrick, Fort Worth, TX (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 11:45 AM)

I believe the world will be as different then as the world now is from 1958 and as different as 1958 was from 1908. However, if you look at what the people of 1958 thought the world would look like in 2008 you'll see they were way off. There are no flying cars, robot servants, ray guns, etc. However there are things in existance that these people could not imagine. I think in the same way our concept of what the world will look like in 2058 is equally off. However, like the people of 1958 we cannot imagine the things that will come to be.

Vince, San Antonio, TX (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 12:12 PM)

50 years from now will just prove what we already know: It is going to be a fantastic, dynamic, controversial, confrontational, exceptional, and bumpy ride to a better life for most of the people on the planet at that time. It is Human Nature, and it is in the blood, and we would not be here, at the top of the food chain it is wasn't so.

We will not and can not solve poverty, or "bullying in the playground", or the occasional beached whale, or death by lightning, nor will we be successful at asking all the rich people to give up their hard earned money to make sure the homeless can keep smoking cigarettes. But I absolutely know we will thrive, we will adapt, we will make it better than it was before. I am betting this will happen because it has pretty consistently happened each generation in this gene pool since the beginning of time. That is why we are here, and why the ones that aren't here, aren't here.

If you think we got problems now, can you imagine the life style in the 1800's where scratchin' dirt and throwing seeds and praying for rain was life or death activity? or the death plagues in the dark ages that just killed everybody you knew? or hiding in an ice cave hoping you don't die from the cold or from the bear that dug it? I think humans get a little better every generation, driven by ambition and sucess and survival for sure, and that is not going to change - thank goodness! Becasue that is what has assured our place in the sun! And it will continue to drive us to find the solutions, and solve the problems, adapt to the changes, and create the better world for most of our children's children forever.

William, Tokyo, Japan (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 1:32 PM)

Ok, religion doesn't have to mess up technology. I personally am very religious, and I still believe that we have a responsibility to keep this planet as clean as possible. There is no reason that we as a species should allow the kind of havoc to riegn that now does with the environment. We have been put here as stewards, and it is our job to take care of all of those who cannot take care of themselves. 50 years from now, I belive that we will still be here and therefore, we have the responsibility to repair the mess that we have made here. I can only hope that technology can help us to that, but I also believe that we have to do it ourselves, we have to be personally responsible for ourselves and those around us. We can make this world a utopia, but only if we want it bad enough.

CSpeakes, Owensboro, KY (Sent Monday, April 21, 2008 2:09 PM)

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