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Quantum fluctuations in space, science, exploration and other cosmic fields... served up regularly by MSNBC.com science editor Alan Boyle since 2002.

Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award and other honors; a contributor to "A Field Guide for Science Writers"; and a member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing.

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Rocket revelations

Posted: Friday, March 23, 2007 5:34 PM by Alan Boyle

Rumblings from online and offline grapevines are filling in the gaps in three sagas of space ventures: The usually secretive Blue Origin conducted what's said to be a successful test of its vertical-launch rocket system. ... The usually wide-open SpaceX is providing further details about its own almost successful orbital test launch. ... And Rocketplane Kistler has provided some additional hints about Bigelow Aerospace's not-yet-public plan for setting up an orbital tourist destination by 2012.

• Blue Origin, the rocket venture created by Amazon.com billionaire Jeff Bezos, gave notice to the Federal Aviation Administration about its time frame for the latest launch of its prototype rocket ship, which takes off and lands vertically in the middle of Bezos' 18,600-acre West Texas test site. Blue Origin conducted a successful test in November - which Bezos waited until January to publicize - but air traffic controllers said there was no launch during a follow-up test window in December.

Since then, the FAA has been directing the flow of media inquiries back to Blue Origin, which tends not to say much. "As you may recall, Blue Origin's policy is not to comment on or confirm whether any test flights are scheduled or conducted," company spokesman Bruce Hicks told me in an e-mail today.

However, secondhand reports indicate that a test launch on Thursday was successful, with the rocket rising higher than it did back in November. When you add in the fact that the FAA's original notice to airmen is no longer in the agency's active database, that's pretty good evidence that the test did indeed take place.

• SpaceX put its low-cost Falcon 1 rocket into space for the first time this week, but the second stage didn't make it to orbit as hoped. Just after the test, the California company's millionaire founder, Elon Musk, said the mission was 95 percent successful. A couple of correspondents sent in dissenting views, however:

Greg: "Seems like the title of your SpaceX article should be loss of roll control and more spin control.  Five minutes of flight and not getting anywhere close to the point of being able to insert the payload into the proper orbit hardly qualifies the Falcon 1 as being anywhere near a measure of success in my book.  Whatever happened to the standard of trying to achieve mission success anyway? Forgive me, this must be an 'old space' measure that SpaceX will undoubtedly continue to push aside for now.  How many years' late and how missed milestones has it been now?  If the military’s primary measure of success is mission assurance and the ability of becoming more responsive … then I would say that it will be a very, very long time before SpaceX has any chance of becoming a serious contender. Do you know of anyone who is jumping up and down to put their satellite on the Falcon 1 given their poor track record?  And however can the cost be anywhere near what has been advertised?  Just more spin and smoke and mirrors.  Perhaps you should write about that!   I guess in the end, as the saying goes … you get what you pay for."

John Wickman: "Take a look at the Falcon launch video right at staging. You will see the first stage hits the second-stage engine exit cone. In slow motion, you can see the first stage lip hang up on the outer lip of the second stage exit cone before sliding free. The hit was so strong you see the second stage move dramatically. After the second stage engine comes on, you can see the lip on the end of the exit cone loosen, and then right before jettison of the payload fairing, the exit cone lip comes off completely. Looks to me like they have a staging problem."


SpaceX
The Falcon 1 rocket lifts off Tuesday from
SpaceX's Omelek Island launch pad.

Now SpaceDaily quotes Musk as saying that the first stage did indeed bump the second stage during the separation, although there was no damage done. He told SpaceDaily that the "bump will obviously need to be addressed." Musk also reported that the potentially reusable first stage was not recovered from the Pacific, because the GPS locator device mounted on the stage was not working at launch. (Even before the launch, SpaceX reported that the Falcon 1's GPS navigation system was flaky and might have to be turned off.)

There's a backup sonar beacon and light on the stage, but the recovery ship couldn't get to the projected splashdown site in time to see any sign of the hardware, Musk told SpaceDaily.

Although recovering that first stage isn't crucial to SpaceX's financial model, "long term, getting this right matters a lot for cost reduction," Musk is quoted as saying. SpaceX says Musk will issue a more detailed status report late today or perhaps on Saturday - and I'll update this item with any new information.

• Bigelow Aerospace is gearing up for a big announcement next month at the National Space Symposium in Colorado, but the veil was raised just a bit today by George French III, representing Oklahoma-based Rocketplane Kistler. French, who is the son of Rocketplane's chairman and chief executive officer, told attendees at the annual Space Access conference that his company has signed a letter of intent with Bigelow to carry passengers to a Bigelow-built orbital "hotel" by 2012.

This fits right in with the vision of the company's founder, Nevada billionaire Robert Bigelow, who wants to develop a commercial operation to take tourists as well as researchers into orbit. Bigelow has said he'd like to get the private space station, or stations, going by 2012 so that he can turn his attention to farther-out space outposts.

French declined to say much more about the deal, for fear of stealing Bigelow's thunder. But Rocketplane's revelation makes perfect sense, and there are other potential spaceship operators as well. Bigelow has already made a development deal with Lockheed Martin. SpaceX is another possibility, considering that Musk (like French) is already working on a capsule and rocket capable of resupplying the international space station.

Is Bigelow Aerospace getting into the orbital hotel business, or is the company instead positioning itself as a general contractor for space structures? My bet is on the latter - but stay tuned for further updates.

Speaking of updates, there's plenty more about commercial space ventures coming out of the Space Access '07 conference in Phoenix. The bad news is that I'm missing out this year. The good news is that my brother bloggers are covering the event morning, noon and night. Here's the lineup:

  • RLV and Space Transport News, helmed by Clark Lindsey, provides the blow-by-blow commentary, traditionally followed by a comprehensive summary of the whole conference.
  • Transterrestrial Musings features color commentary by "recovering" aerospace engineer Rand Simberg, seasoned with a little politics.
  • Personal Spaceflight gives space consultant Jeff Foust's take on the conference. Jeff is juggling two blogs at this event, so you'll want to watch Space Politics for reports on governmental angles (such as NASA's plans for rocket development).
  • Why Homeschool broadens its horizons to present Henry Cate's in-depth reports from Space Access.
  • Ian Kluft provides photos and notes from Space Access.

Update for 10:40 p.m. March 24: I corrected the reference to George French III after seeing the comment posted below. As I read the conference reports, I confused him with his dad, Rocketplane CEO George French. Sorry about that, George! 

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Comments

Well, I tell you what... 95% success or not, these companies have gotten a lot farther than I E-V-E-R thought they would. Heck, the country of Japan can barely launch its own rockets. I think we all know sub-orbital is joyride-type stuff but here we are on the verge of rocketing to orbit and having a pretty sizeable space station to boot! All in what five years??? That’s amazing! I'd love to see these guy's shops. Just no photos, eh? ;)

I see Clark has further confirmation of the Blue Origin test:

"Michelle Murray of the FAA Office of Space Commercialization talked about the process for obtaining experimental permits such as those needed for the Lunar Lander Challenge competition. There will sponsor a workshop on the topic.

"She says that Blue Origin carried out a test flight this week. Nothing posted about it on the Blue Origin website but they are usually secretive about what they are doing."

Now I know who to call at the FAA who will actually say something about these tests!

.

the "successful fail" of the second Falcon launch (without any flight-test of the two stages) shows that SpaceX is a good (small) company with good engineers (so, the day of a full success is coming soon)

however, the ENTIRE private space-market faces a major problem (we can't hide) that is "the REAL dimensions of this market"

talking of "market" I don't refer to the (relatively simple and cheap) "sub-orbital flights market" (that may sell thousands tickets) NOR the "commercial/military satellites low cost rockets market" (with BIG problem to come for the high-priced-rockets "old" aerospace companies) while I refer to the "1st class market" of the ORBITAL cargo/crew flights

that kind of "high level" private-market surely needs lower-than-past prices but, also, of "highly reliable vehicles" (that, so far, only a few space agencies are able to make) and (most important) MANY TARGETS IN SPACE ("places to go")

unfortunately, the ONLY "place to go" in space is the ISS ...a "small house" for three astronauts that will soon have an EXCESS of "non-private" cargo and crew vehicles to fit (many times) its capacity/needs

when some private companies will reach the same (NASA/ESA/RSA-like) high quality-standards, the ISS will already have/use up to FOUR different cargo vehicles (Progress, ATV, HTV and cargo-Orion) and up to FOUR different crew vehicles: Digital-Soyuz, Orion, ACTS and (I'm sure) Shenzhou

it will be like using a 747 to travel a few dozens of passengers and luggages per year!

someday... COTS and other private vehicles will (safely) fly in space... but... WHERE will they go? ...and WHAT will they do?

the ONLY hope for NewSpace is to have soon some Bigelow's "space hotels" in orbit... however, the number of space-tourists for these hotels can't be high in the short term since all space tourists must be VERY brave, well trained, with a STRONG (Armstrong/Aldrin/Collins-like) health and LOTS of million$ in to spend... :)

.
Remember that Tuesday's SpaceX launch was their second attempt that day.

Demonstrating a safe shutdown after their engine had ignited was impressive enough - but then they *recycled the countdown to T-11,* and tried again.

Has such a rapid launch turnaround happened to an orbit-rated vehicle before, ever? (Seriously, if someone knows, please post, I'd like to know.)

They had that much confidence in the Merlin engine. And just over an hour later the Falcon was in space. And yes, it didn't make orbit. So what.

Critics should factor in just how radically SpaceX has changed the rules, and how well they've executed these changes, before dismissing what they've accomplished. Something tells me not to underestimate this intrepid company.
Seems to me that 4 and a half years (SpaceX existence) is really not a very, very long time to achieve what SpaceX has done. Has any country done anything like this? I like the fact that Elon is open about his company's achievements and mishaps. I wish him the best!
Mr. Bigelow revealed the topic of his announcement during his interview on Coast to Coast with Art Bell. Seemed to be more of an advertisement than an announcement -- that a primary business objective will be to provide a destination for sovereign nations with astronaut corps. (Though I might have heard it wrong. Check out the interview on the web.)
I believe that Rocketplane Kistler will prevail as the world's cutting edge space tourist/contracting agent. I have faith in the company to set the trend in space travel in this world.
Don't be overly critical of the less than perfect launch of Falcon 1 by SpaceX. It is still a great achievement. You must remember a basic law of physics; this is that the kinetic energy of a moving object increases with the square of the velocity. Let's compare what SpaceX has done to Scaled Composites Spaceship One. The speed that Scaled Composites now famous "SpaceshipOne" reaches is ONLY roughly 2400 MPH. The speed that Falcon 1 reaches (if it makes it to orbit) is roughly 17000 MPH!  The energy required to reach orbital speed for Falcon 1 per pound of payload is at least 50 times greater than the typical SpaceshipOne flight profile!

SpaceX is doing something requirng far far more energy than anything done so far by Scaled Composites. Yet Scaled Composites always gets positive press even though they have had their own failures. Remember, SpaceshipOne nearly lost control on one of its flights and they went through literally dozens of test flights finally leading up to the ANSARI X prize.

The fact that Falcon 1 nearly reached orbital speed in its most recent test (only the second flight ever) is testimony to the success and leadership of SpaceX.

I don't want to sound negative on SpaceshipOne. In fact, I'm a big believer in SpaceshipOne and I'm  also impressed by their accomplisments too. However, we still must recognize the physics involved here and SpaceshipOne is only an incremental improvement of a factor of 2-3 beyond already commercially available MIG 23 Jet Fighter passenger flights offered in Russia. Whereas, the SpaceX Falcon series of rockets will be the first "truly" privately developed space boosters offering orbital capability. THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
If this pace of development continues and there is some level of cooperation, a consortium of these entrepreneurs could beat both the US and China to the Moon.
Thanks for linking to my SpaceDaily piece, Alan! I do want to stress that I'm not the Greg who provided your first comment; I'll leave it to others to judge whether he's right.
I have always said that the only way we will make any real progress in space is for private companies to become involved.  Ponderous government entities like NASA are too bogged down in politics and budgetary concerns to make the kind of advances necessary.  Additionally hampering things is the pursuit of money wasting ventures like the Shuttle Program.  Billions of dollars spent for a system that could have been spent to develop the technologies that put us on the moon.  Had we stuck with what worked, built on what we had, rather than advancing the pet projects of a handful of engineers... One can see the proof of this with Project Orion- our return to the moon.  Is it any wonder that NASA is returning to Apollo era technologies?

How long before NASA is made obsolete by the likes of Branson and the others?

My hat's off to you guys- the true carriers of the spirit that took us to the stars.
It's true that Blue Origin is virtually the 'Area 51' of NewSpace, but some images of the SpaceX facilities can be found on their website and elsewhere.

Some details on Scaled Composites' facilities can be occasionally found, especally in documentaries about SapceShipOne, but Burt Rutan generally doesn't say much, until he's also got something ready to present.

On the other hand, Armadillo Aerospace has always been *extremely* open (including posted images/video of their shops and hardware) about what they do, and how they do it (though I'd be surprised if John Carmack didn't have at least a few proprietary details of his own. It's just the way of business, and they're entitled to it).
Just to let you know the announcement of the LOI with Rocketplane and Bigelow was made by George French III son of CEO George French.
Boy, they sure did Frank!  There was almost a 1000 images from or about Armadillo Aerospace with at least a third of the photos in or in front of their shop.

http://media.armadilloaerospace.com/2003_04_11/newShop.jpg
http://media.armadilloaerospace.com/2002_11_30/bigTools.jpg

My main interest was to see the size of their tooling equipment as I have long been a proponent of having sub-industrial-scale shops right at the home and neighborhood level.  It would allow us to disperse our industries away from vulnerable central locations and not only increase our free time (from not having to travel to work) but also dramatically lower our impact on the environment as well.  Thanks!
Far more interesting, updated and expanded info from Elon to NASASpaceFlight.com Saturday night:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=5056
There's a document on DARPA's homepage that outlines their strategic research initiatives.  I thought it was interesting because the document talks about the Falcon's role in their responsive launch vehicle initiative and the capability that gives the US military (DARPA is a DoD entity after all).  If you're like me, you may have read that DARPA and the Dod have funded the first two (three?) launches, but I didn't understand why their funding was significant.  Given China's recent satellite kill, it seems the further militarization of space in inevitable.
Bitch about the private space or bust companies all you want boys. All I believe is that the future of space exploration is NOT with NASA. These hotshots will be working out the orbit parameters for a landing on Titan before NASA can even get back to the moon.
Greg, although Elon is assessing the mission optimistically, I personally find your comments quite unwarranted. Like Scott pointed out, NASA is not the future of space exploration, so I believe all space enthusiasts will agree that SpaceX is making great progress. When was the last time that a group of less than 200 people attempted to design, build, test, and fly a brand new launch vehicle? In the history of spaceflight there has never been a launch vehicle developed and flown perfectly the first few times – in fact, most launch vehicles fail many times before they achieve success. How many individuals work on Pegasus? How about Atlas or Delta? Why don’t you give the small SpaceX team some credit and root for their success instead of condemning them for their shortcomings. Also, instead of drawing conclusions about price and reliability, why don’t you let time decide. I hardly think two flights are enough to draw conclusions about the vehicles reliability. I admire Elon’s belief in a space faring civilization and I wish the SpaceX team the best of luck. Go SpaceX!


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