Five frontier technologies

Posted: Monday, March 12, 2007 9:16 AM by Alan Boyle

How is the technological frontier shaping up for the next five years? Prognosticating progress is a popular pastime among high-tech types: Back in December, IBM issued its predictions for the top five technologies leading up to 2012 – and last week, I took my turn at the Technology Association of Iowa’s annual awards banquet. Who’ll come closer to the mark? Read on, lay your bets, and list your own predictions for our high-tech future.

1. Energy independence … with ethanol? Biofuels are becoming the hottest trend in energy technology, and lots of venture capitalists are placing big bets – as illustrated by this "Dateline NBC" report from last year on ethanol investor Vinod Khosla. The highlight of the story is Khosla’s trip to see Brazil’s ethanol boom in action – a trip similar to the one President Bush took last week.

Brazil’s boom is fueled by the sugar in sugar cane, just as America’s current fling with ethanol is powered by the starch in corn. But what we’re heading toward in the next five years is an ethanol economy that draws upon cheaper raw materials, ranging from plain old cornstalks to prairie grasses, paper-mill waste and even the peelings left behind by orange juice producers. That’s what could drive down the price of ethanol fuel below the dollar-per-gallon mark … at least in Khosla’s vision for the next five years.

The challenge facing researchers is to come up with ways to break down cellulose more efficiently. Scientists are doing just that – by analyzing how termites break down cellulose in their guts, for example. A couple of weeks ago, genetic researchers reported that they’ve found hundreds of new enzymes that could make it easier to turn cellulose into green ethanol. And just last week, researchers announced that they’ve sequenced the genome of a yeast species that could turn cellulose into ethanol.

There’s one more requirement for the biofuel revolution that Khosla anticipates, and that’s making our fuel infrastructure more ethanol-friendly. In Brazil, 80 percent of all motor vehicles are capable of using fuel blends ranging from straight gasoline to E85. In comparison, less than 3 percent of America’s motor vehicles are built for FlexFuel. So if the trends continue to head in the direction they’re going, you can expect FlexFuel to join cellulose, genomics and enzymes as buzzwords for the next five years in energy technology.

Every time I write about ethanol, it sparks a debate over whether other energy technologies - such as ultra-efficient batteries, or solar, or wind, or kinder, gentler nuclear power - are more likely to win out. Maybe it won't be ethanol. But I have a feeling that the push toward less dependence on foreign fossil fuel is for real this time.

2. Sociable robots: Utilitarian robots are already taking on tasks ranging from building cars and cleaning floors to detecting bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan. The next big trend in robotics is to make the machines more sociable, and therefore more human. As you can see in this video clip from NBC’s TODAY show, Japan is setting the pace for sociable robots – partly because the aging of Japan’s population has created a need for robotic nurses and companions. These companion robots could well help aging boomers do the cooking, cleaning and even gardening, according to Cynthia Breazeal, a robotics whiz at MIT.

There’s yet another possible course for robots: In addition to becoming more visible, robots may become more in-visible. Some cars are already being equipped with enough smarts to back themselves into a parking place – and this fall, robotic vehicles are due to drive themselves through city traffic as part of DARPA’s Urban Challenge. Within the next five or 10 years, there may be a four-wheeled robot driving in the lane beside you. Meanwhile, at MIT, Cynthia Breazeal is talking about creating a wearable suit fitted with sensors that could coach you through a golf swing or a tennis swing.

3. Cyborgs and cyberhumans: Even today, there are plenty of people who are part machine – and that trend is likely to accelerate in the next five years.

There was only one “Six Million Dollar Man” when that TV show first came out – but now there are millions of men and women who have high-tech prosthetics. Neuroscience is showing us how to build artificial arms and legs that really do respond to the mere thought of movement. Cochlear implants are bringing hearing to the deaf – and just in the last month, the FDA gave its go-ahead for a new generation of artificial retinas that are wired directly to the brain.

NBC’s TODAY show focused on the future of bionic men and women in two segments last month – one on British cyborg researcher Kevin Warwick, and the other on real-life cyborg Claudia Mitchell.

Brown University’s John Donoghue – who has been involved in experiments that wired up monkeys to move robotic arms with their thoughts – said the next step is to create a fiber-optic nervous system that can be implanted within your very muscles, to create what he calls an "Internet of the body."

The Internet has become so much a part of our lives that it could hardly be called a frontier technology. But we may be approaching a frontier in which the collective knowledge of the World Wide Web becomes integrated with our own knowledge, creating what you could call a personal "Innernet."

Imagine having a search-and-retrieve function hooked up to your own brain that guides you to online databases just by thinking about a particular search term – sort of like a Google inside your head. Back in 1984, science-fiction writer William Gibson referred to such devices as "microsofts" – and two decades ago, that seemed like nothing more than cyberpunk sci-fi. But today, I can’t help but think that the next five years will bring us closer to an Innernet revolution.

4. Personalized medicine: Genetic profiling is already being used to fine-tune treatment for blood clots in patients who are at risk of developing a potentially life-threatening condition – people like Vice President Dick Cheney, for example. When it comes to blood clotting, different people have different tendencies – and if you give too much of an anti-clotting agent like Warfarin to the wrong people, you run the risk of causing excessive bleeding and leakage. Genetic profiles can tell you how much of a given medication you should be getting.

In the next five years, we’ll be seeing more examples where genetic profiles guide traditional drug therapy. Certain drugs, for example, don’t do much for people who have a typical European genetic profile, but they can have a therapeutic effect on people of African descent. This may sound a little like racial profiling, but it really has nothing to do with the color of your skin. Rather, personalization will match your medicine to your genes – to maximize the therapeutic benefit and minimize the unwanted side effects.

The steps beyond that will be more controversial: If you’re suffering from a genetic disease, it’s theoretically possible to deliver therapeutic genes to your cells, wrapped up in a specially constructed virus. There have been some successes in the field of gene therapy, but also some high-profile failures that have made researchers think twice about how it should be applied.

Stem cell research is fraught with even more political debate. We’ve all heard about the South Korean stem cell scandal, the controversy over human embryonic stem cells vs. adult stem cells, therapeutic cloning vs. reproductive cloning, and so on. Over the next five years, stem cells are more likely to serve as microscopic laboratories in animal studies as well as human studies, to help us unravel the causes of disease – and eventually, guide us to new therapies as well. The hype over cloning may well fade away, as people come to realize that the real aim of stem cell research is to figure out how to use the healing powers of our own cells.

5. Commercial spaceflight: I’ve been covering this field for about 10 years, and one of the high points came in 2004, when a privately developed rocket plane called SpaceShipOne made not just one, but three flights to the edge of outer space. I talked about the impact of those flights on the field of space tourism in a video clip from October 4, 2004, the date of SpaceShipOne’s final flight to the final frontier.

The successor to SpaceShipOne is expected to roll out for testing later this year, leading up to the start of commercial service two years from now. And SpaceShipTwo probably won’t be the only suborbital spaceship out there. By 2010, there might well be two or three companies offering quick rides to outer space and back, with a price tag of $200,000 or so. And that price tag is certain to go down as the industry matures.

A Nevada company called Bigelow Aerospace has already launched one unmanned orbital spaceship called Genesis 1, and the company is planning to put up a bigger ship that could serve as an orbiting hotel or research station in the 2010 time frame.

Bigelow Aerospace is backed by a real-estate billionaire named Robert Bigelow – who has set aside half a billion dollars to get his orbital venture off the ground. Last month, Bigelow told me that in 2012 or so, he’s planning to start focusing on helping NASA build its first moonbase. Bigelow is promising to make yet another big announcement next month, so you’ll have to stay tuned for the next chapter.

So those are the five frontiers for the next five years, the way I see them. Feel free to add your own picks in the comments section below. Of course, the biggest frontier will most likely be No. 6 – the one I never saw coming. Check back in 2012, and I promise to focus on that one and explain why I was wrong about the other five.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

So I guess the big question is how are we going to afford all the latest gadgets, rooftop solar panels, wind generators, flying cars, and terabyte computers? To me, the most economical and ecological way to get more out of life while actually using less is through a modernized form of communal living, which (when done properly) is a technology all its own. Instead of always being forced to buy the cheapest products, families can simply split their cost and share the latest state-of-the-art appliances and recreational items that come along. People fail to realize that apart from their bedrooms, the six main areas of the home are used less than 10% of the time for the purpose they were intended. If we can simply share such areas, we’d have the vital extra room we need in the home for libraries, game room/sports bars, craft and homeschooling classrooms, and even things like a multipurpose racquetball court that can be converted into a theater/conference center or gymnastics training facility. Rooftop landing pads and greenhouses come standard!

To hold up to such an intensified living arrangement, such homes would have corporate telephone and server computer systems, segregated living areas to lower noise levels, and master bedroom suites with full entertainment centers, personal computers, and ample storage space. There’d be wider hallways, soundproof materials within the walls and floors, and top-quality appliances to meet expected demands. Such homes would also have professionally-equipped offices and shops that allow residents to establish comprehensive home-based businesses! Working right at home reduces daycare, vehicle, and fuel costs, our impact on the environment, and would give us about FIVE more hours of free time per week. It is a 'cut-to-the-chase' solution that makes so much more of the good stuff in life finally possible... for ALL of us!

Chris Eldridge, Harrisburg PA (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 1:22 PM)

Private space efforts are primed to explode beyond suborbital “Tourist” flights, and quickly reach new milestones far beyond the Moon. Space X and even Lockheed Martin are working on man rated vehicles to reach Low Earth Orbit, without NASA or the Russians. Hardware and supplies for a deep space mission can already be delivered to orbit by commercial services. Recognizing that it is far easier to reach Mars’ surface than our Moon’s, and only modestly more difficult to make a round trip, ultralight efforts are possible for the cost of an “America’s Cup” racing sailboat. The necessary spacecraft and life support systems for flights beyond LEO are modest sized, not particularly difficult and can use largely proven technology. Experienced adventurers are already preparing for these historic efforts.

Richard P. Speck, Denver, Colorado (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 1:52 PM)

The flex fuel era has already arrived in some places. Take a look at this website from the American Lung Association of the Upper Midwest, a strong supporter of E85, to see what I mean:

www.CleanAirChoice.org

Bob Moffitt (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 2:09 PM)

My only regret about manned spaceflight is that I may not be around to see it all. I watched the Apollo program and waited, and waited, and waited for a moon base. Now when we are predicted to go to Mars around 2030, I'll be 66. Given the delay these programs usually take, I may miss it. GO PRIVATE INDUSTRY!! Let's get there sooner than later. NASA has dropped the ball for 30 years, lets pick it up and RUN!!

Derek Meche (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 2:10 PM)

4. How about everybody being able to get a checkup?

Bill (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 4:12 PM)

I'd like to add one...

We're at the point where we may finally understand gravity. If we can solve this puzzle of antigravity, it will change the world in ways that nothing else ever will. Floating cities. Mooncars. Individual people flying like they're walking in the park.

Everything else will make profound changes upon us, but this would certainly be the most visual.

Don Smith (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 5:56 PM)

The one thing that you failed to include under the "personalized medicine" topic is the coming cure for cancer. Scientists are now creating a library of the genetic defects that lead to specific cancers (see March, 2007 issue of Scientific American). This will allow doctors precisely to target chemo and gene therapies at proteins and enzymes to attack and destroy each (and every) individual cancer cell while leaving healthy cells virtually unaffected.

Joseph Felcon, Chandler, AZ (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 6:59 PM)

Energy independence hands down has the most potential for early and long-term payoff.

This sounds like a perfect match -- biofuels and genetically engineered plants "designed" not for food but for maximum conversion into biofuels.

I haven't read anything about genetic engineering of plants to maximize biofuel generation. Is this happening now? If not in the US, where?

Thanks.

Steve Quanrud (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 7:40 PM)

In places like the Philippines, politicians are already running election campaigns around the supposed benefits of feeding all or most of our sugar cane to the cars instead of the hungry human beings. But I've done some admittedly simple arithmetic involving land area and production efficiency of bioethanol production. Know what? I think bioethanol could be the new snake oil. Just coz an idea is "green" doesn't mean it's ripe!

DJB Rizalist (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 8:36 PM)

I began a list in the early '90's when taking a college level 'Future Studies' course, my choices then were biotech (genetics, proteomics etc.), nanotech (Engines of Creation), robotics, Fermilab/CERN particle accelerators(atomsmasher - as in finding the GOD particle)& at that time the SETI project(Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) but next year that will be supplanted by the low frequency telescope in Australia which unlike SETI will be able to pick up signals that aren't necessarily beamed into space. The 1st three I list essentially have applications only as limited as our imaginations. The last 2 may not have the practical applications but in my opinion have the potential to cause a seismic shift in our consciousness & impact how we live as much or more than all the others put together.

Diana Harris,Scottsdale,AZ (Sent Monday, March 12, 2007 11:45 PM)

I have to admit, Alan, I was disappointed in the IBM when it didn't mentioned Space commericalization and space colonization, although to be brutally honest, I wasn't too surprized, since space colonization doesn't do much for there business.

Aaron Oesterle (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 12:10 AM)

Alan -- tch, tch, tch, the five-year forecasts are all underway right now and progressing nicely behind the scenes to be ready for consumption soon enough. But I hope you aren't ignoring our most pressing problem and its solution, upon which the other technologies depend so greatly for relevance in the long run. Yes, I'm thinking of Global Warming as mankind's pre-eminent problem to be solved in five years -- or else! We really don't have the luxury of solving that problem 100 years or 50 years or even 20 years from now.

Des Emery,The Carborundun Chronicles,St.Thomas,ON,Canada (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 12:44 AM)

Ethanol is only part of the solution. It'll be a better part of the solution if a ultra-efficient flexfuel vehicle (100+ mpg) comes along, along with far more efficient sources than corn (switchgrass).

Michael Hubbard, Santa Fe, TX (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 1:59 AM)

Global Warming, IF it really exists, can't and won't be solved until we get another energy source. The only way to do it is to fund innovative technology that prevents emissions from getting to the atmosphere or extracts it from the atmosphere while also looking for effective and efficient new energy sources. High taxation, carbon caps, etc aren't the answer. And neither is the Kyoto Treaty, that, you, document that is entirely anti-American?

MCH, Santa Fe, TX (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 2:05 AM)

Technologies that will enhance interpersonal relations will be the next wave. As we strive to advance we will soon realize that it is the interactions of human with human that matter most. Machinations will only drive us to ponder and yearn for the unpredictable which can only be found in the human psyche. When technology can achieve such results, we will find ourselves back where we started...conversing with each other. Of course, this is where we are going already. Whether it be on the moon or some other place, we travel to find others. What would be the sense of discovery if we have no one to share the discovery with?

JS, Lufkin, Tx. (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 7:51 AM)

For the plant that produces the most ethanol look at hemp. www.jackherer.com

To see the company that is going to make Microsoft look like a kid selling lemonade look at www.permanent.com

James Stepp, Orlando, Florida (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 10:37 AM)

And don't forget the Mayan calendar says that it will all end on December 21, 2012! There may be less time than we think.

Andy Rakaczky, Sun Valley, NV (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 11:05 AM)

Alan, I have to say that Im with you on #6 but do we really want to scare everbody so soon. Lets wait till 2013 and see who left to keep progressing foward the Human Race.

ASG, Columbus Ohio (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 11:09 AM)

2012......Enjoy the next 5 years. In 2012 there will, without a doubt, a near extiction of the human race. This is going to be caused by a violent shift in the poles on the sun which will result in a change in the suns magnetic field. This will then cause a pole shift here on earth. The results will be total destruction. Land masses will change locations on the earth by thousands of miles in a matter of hours and the earth will actually change it's rotation dirtection. The sun will rise in the west and set in the east. This has happened before, and will happen again at 11:00am on Dec 21st, 2012. Do some investigating for yourself, it might save your life. Many people can be saved, but we have to start planning now.

Chad Robert (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 11:29 AM)

Maybe I'm just an idiot, but can someone explain to me how ethanol solves any real environmental problem? Doesn't it all depend on where you get it from? Doesn't burning enthanol produce carbon dioxide? If you're trying to solve a political problem of buying oil from people who hate us, I'm not sure that ethanol from corn even helps with that, unless the farm machinery is powered by ethanol, or liquified coal.

Roof-top solar panels have been around for decades. I designed a house that used them back in the 70's . Guess what: it's still not enconomically viable to build it today. Electricity is roughly the same price now as it was then. about 7 cents a kilowatt-hour.

None of these ideas for alternative fuels are new. We still don't have a viable battery technology unless you consider hydrogen fuel cells viable. I don't.

Guy S. Newell (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 2:34 PM)

What about the fact that it takes 6 units of oil to produce 1 unit of ethanol? Why do people tend to ignore that issue?

BH, Fairbanks, Alaska (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 4:23 PM)

1. Ethanol is not the only "biofuel", there is also biodiesel made from oils and fats, and butanol made by bacterial fermentation. Butanol has more energy per gallon and can be used in regular gasoline engines - no "flex fuel" required.

Production is a problem, not enough farmland, so biofuels cannot replace petroleum by themselves. A dramatic reduction in fuel consumption is needed, that means extensive use of electricity for "pluggable" hybrids, battery electric vehicles, electric transit, and even "electric car guideways".

2. There may be many simple tasks that can be handled by robots, but "self driving" cars are going to be much more difficult than DARPA expects. Navagation, steering, speed control, and coordinating automated vehicles is easy, but dealing with pedestrians, animals, random obstacles, and human drivers will prove to be impossible. Putting vehicles on "guideways", isolated from traffic and pedestrians, is the best solution.

3. We don't know nearly enough to get any sort of direct machine/brain connection to work well - the proposed "innernet" is a very long ways away. For now, we'll use net connected cellphones/PDAs for all that quick internet reference stuff.

4. Genetically personalized medicine will eventually be a huge benefit - but an enormous amount of research is still needed, and there will be more than a few genetic surprises yet to be discovered.

5. The "space tourism" industry has wildly overestimated the size of their market, and with way too many companies crowding the field competing for the same tiny pool of billionaire clients, the probability of all of them eventually going bankrupt is extremely high. The only "commercial spaceflight" that makes economic sense is the rather mundane launching of communication sattelites. As for government sponsored non-commercial space flights, I suspect they will eventually have to be cut due to economic reality, especially since national debts are large and growing.

CM, Modesto Ca (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 5:51 PM)

What also needs to be funded by the Feds is a very large award (or bounty) for the inventor who can come up with solar panels that can, very inexpensively, create a lot of electricity as well as battery technology to store large amounts for longer times in smaller spaces. Our space program has already laid the foundation. Today, it costs some $90,000 to run an entire household from photovoltaic panels. Cut that cost by 90% and it will make sense. Smaller and more efficient battery storage will also be a complementary technology.

Why a very large Federal award? The invisible hands, that's why! Put a carrot out there for inventors to reach for and more will. And you can bet your bottom dollar that a small company or individual will be the ones to come up with it, not GE et al. Just think of the industries this will also germinate!

Ralph Homan, Everett WA (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 7:32 PM)

Whos idea was it to turn our food source into a energy source.We used to feed untold millions of starving people.Now we are creating a system for corprate farms to recive either tax breaks or subsities to over produce and contiune to lessen the produtivaity of our farm land.

john smith woodburn or (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 9:22 PM)

CM,
I'm curious - why don't you think that the companies can bring the price to orbit down?

Aaron Oesterle (Sent Tuesday, March 13, 2007 11:45 PM)

MCH of Santa Fe is hesitant about accepting the reality of Global Warming. I want to assure him that it is real and it is knocking at our door right now. The diversionary debate concerning its genesis, whether it is predetermined or a natural event or is caused by us and our profligate habits, is moot; it is measurably happening. I don't blame the measurers for extending the time we have left, but they are looking through rose-coloured glasses in accepting hopeful estimates.

The Kyoto Protocol is a political document, acceptable to some politicos but not to others, including Bush who likes to go it alone. It was conceived many years ago and is still not being put into practice, allowing many politicos, including the neocon Steven Harper of Canada, to make it into a political football. It is irrelevant at this late date.

Nuclear power plants (no CO2) are the first requirement in order to distribute electricity across the continent. While these are being brought on-line, the new technology of nanobatteries can be expanded rapidly; these batteries are small enough and can be up-loaded with electricity almost instantaneously when re-charging is needed. Existing service stations can be converted from dispensing gasoline (lots of CO2) to selling 'volts' (no CO2) instead, from the new power grid. We, the people, can take charge of our lives again and tell the automakers, here and abroad, manufacture electric vehicles, or else. And they can of course, if we want them to.

2012, in Mayan Calendars or not, is just another year, but makes a good target to shoot for in our present predicament. Global Warming is real - check out the pictures and maps and hope that your home is well above sea-level.

Des Emery,The CarborundumChronicles,St.Thomas,ON,Canada (Sent Wednesday, March 14, 2007 12:19 AM)

What kind of impact will this innernet have on the military and people in the military that want to have this procedure done? Because if you're looking for test subjects, I'll be the first for the military to take on this innernet.

adam norman, Fort Knox, KY (Sent Wednesday, March 14, 2007 10:11 AM)

Economics still rules. Few of these ideas will get too far because of the expense of changing things to make them work.

The noosphere was proposed way back by Jesuit Teilhard de Chardin, though not as a mind-internet link as such. Who's going to afford the operations and the training to get the interlink to work? Not to mention dealing with all the failures who will have to be institutionalized.

Global warming and its consequences will be the most immediate development, but no suggestions for how to survive economically and as a species. Ignoring the gorilla in the room is a strange kind of prognostication.

While it is not likely that strange matter and negative energy will be resolved in the next 5 years, there will probably be some new developments in these areas, and they will have consequences.

Ray Bilodeau (Sent Wednesday, March 14, 2007 12:16 PM)

There is actually research going on how to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the Valley.

MCH, Santa Fe, TX (Sent Wednesday, March 14, 2007 4:32 PM)

Des, Gore's movie is full of false numbers. Don't believe it. I'm not saying we shouldn't develop technologies and capabilities to counter it, but I'm not convinced it is as big or as immediate a problem Gore or the Europeans make it. Kind of odd that most of the major planets in the solar system are warming...

MCH, Santa Fe, TX (Sent Wednesday, March 14, 2007 4:35 PM)

MCH of Santa Fe (one of the beautiful cities I'd like to visit) -- I'm not getting my information on Global Warming from Al Gore, whose movie, though Oscar-winning, I've not seen. The Europeans are understandably more involved in Global Warming since most of them are further north than most of us. They get their warmer winters from the Gulf Stream, which will be one of the early victims of GW. I'm going by an accumulation of things that have happened over several years - the slow disappearance of frogs, the earlier and earlier mating of northern squirrels, the progressive weight loss and decreasing number of polar bears and the recent cross-breeding between Kodiak and Polar bears. Many more such events point to GW, check the pictures to see the limited extent of polar ice now compared to just a few years ago. I have to believe it is happening now and its course will only accelerate in the coming years. If indeed the sun is the warming factor (all planets showing temperature increase?) it is irrelevant - we must do something rather than nothing and start doing it now.

Des Emery,The Carborundum Chronicles,St.Thomas,ON,Canada (Sent Wednesday, March 14, 2007 11:16 PM)

US carbon emissions could be halved in a decade and a half by replacing inefficient coal plants with nuclear facilities. In many parts of the US it would be more economic than existing coal.

The problem isn't that we don't have the technology to combat global warming, it's that certain parts of our society won't let us deploy it.

Adrasteia (Sent Thursday, March 15, 2007 1:53 AM)

I agree that cellulosic ethanol is the best way to satisfy our ethanol demand. The corn we grow cannot be diverted from the food supply! It's already been shown that we cannot grow enough, and the impact on food prices would be unacceptable.

Brian Laks (Sent Sunday, March 18, 2007 1:56 AM)

How about the pyramid that was found off the coast of florida in 1971. It had a large quartz crystal on top of it!!! This was the power that was used on the so called lost continent of alantis. Edgar cayce.org read POLE SHIFT by JOHN WHITE. The book has been revised 17 times since 1980 so get the new edition!!!

dennis emerine new riegel, ohio (Sent Monday, March 19, 2007 4:25 PM)

1. Coal isn't going away. We just don't have a cost effective means to replace it as of now. As far as I am concerned, any stop-gap measures will destroy the economy and few are viable. Fusion appears to be the only true answer to our energy problems, and it is decades away from commercialization. The privileged will have to begin making sacrifices in their lives soon, or face consequences of the coming energy wars. Ethanol will help, but unfortunately it isn't the fix-all we need either.

2. yes, androids will become more sophisticated and cheaper in the coming years. They will permeate our society, and as some enter the uncanny valley, there will be major ethical issues we must determine. The time to talk about these things is now.

3. Cybernetic research is really taking off, and I love it. Although, you are a bit optimistic about the "innternet" being available in 5 years, we will see advances in the accuracy and speed of Brain-Computer Interfaces. However, output is much easier than input, and as of yet no one knows how to "implant" thoughts into our brains. However, this obstacle is easily solved by a simple HUD on your glasses. However, as cybernetics grow more advanced, and cyborgs become commonplace more ethical questions will be raised. How far should one be allowed to modify themselves? In a perfect libertarian world, people should be allowed to modify themselves as much as they would like, but in our current climate I can see a large backlash towards the cybernetic revolution. This is quite scary, as nations such as China would have no problems augmenting their population, and could easily surpass the prowess if the US turns luddite.

A scary and uncertain future we have to look forward to. The decisions and ideas we have today will shape tomorrow. To avoid future conflict we must act now!

Frank Grove, Tulsa, OK (Sent Monday, March 19, 2007 8:57 PM)

Responding to some comments on ethanol:

1) "...cellulosic ethanol is the best way to satisfy our ethanol demand."

A: There are no cellulose feedstock farms, no means of transporting the huge amount of biomass needed to make cellulosic ethanol, no cellulsic ethanol plants in the United States, and if they did exist, it would cost 2-10 times as much to make exactly the same fuel made with corn today. Other than that, it's perfect!

2) Six gallons of gas to make one ethanol? That's not true. Ethanol has net energy gain, not loss.

3) Food vs. Fuel? No one is starving because of ethanol. Can we say no one has ever suffered because of oil?

4) Ethanol isn't the answer to our energy woes. Correct. It is not THE answer, nor can it EVER replace all gasoline. It IS cleaner burning than gas, and buys us a little time until researchers find something cleaner and better.

Researchers, get busy! In the meanwhile, E85 and biodiesel can help us take the first "baby steps" away from oil.

Bob from American Lung Association of MInnesota (Sent Wednesday, June 06, 2007 10:27 AM)

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=87592

More Cosmic Log

Recent Posts:

Archives:

Categories:

Latest Tech & Science News

Syndicate This Site

Add Cosmic Log to your news reader:

ABOUT COSMIC LOG