Nano composite materials or those Buckyball-like nanotubes would be man's best creation since fire or the wheel!!  If I'm not mistaken, it's said that a strand of this stuff only the width of a human hair can hold a fully loaded tractor-trailer suspended in midair!  If so, the main tubes on your mountain bike maybe smaller than straws!  Think of the airline industry.  They use composites now but the fibers are not nearly as strong as nanotube fibers.

Flying cars are always the big future guessing game.  Although it is foolish to think everyone needs to own one (as a simple taxi service would be far better and prevent the need for huge landing fields) I do think they will be coming out.  Perhaps something simpler than the Moller 400 or perhaps something like a Canard Rotorwing like Boeing is not testing in unmanned form.  Again, when you are talking about VTOL flight, nothing beats lightweight composites.

I've also been waiting for those computer chips etched with ultraviolet light, not just infrared light.  Using such higher frequency etching can make circuits a 1000 times smaller.  Similarly I once heard of how a single DVD could be etched thousands of times over using a laser set at different wavelengths.  Overwriting information would normally be destructive but not if the laser is set at a different frequency.  With such technology, we may soon be asking what term to use after Terabyte drives?

The most important new technology in the next half-decade will be connnected to the easy conversion of salt-water to fresh, or the expansion of knowledge-based  communications.  Unfortunately, which one effort makes the grade will depend on its cost/profit ratio, which makes the latter likely.  But one never knows ahead of time  --  who would have predicted the wax-tube could morph into the music-radio-tv-movie-entertainment industry, while the stereogragh photo display languished?

Looking back ( I'm now 70 years old), it seems to me that we've been lousy forescasters or whatever the word is for these things. The only thing I'm sure about is that we should expect the unexpected. My bet goes 100% for nanotechnology: for those with some money to invest; put all your shares in all those companies doing research or whatever in nanotechnology products. You won't miss.

the 45nm processes being produced ARE made with uv light.

Nanotechnology. Definitely. Nanotechnology will be one of the biggest impacts ever to hit the human race. When we discover how to create nano-machines that make nano-robots cost effectively, it will be the end of the "innocence" of man-kind. Personally, I can't wait.

Sir Arthur (C. Clarke) wrote a book concerned with predictions.  They fail because of a failure of nerve or a failure of knowledge, if memory serves.  It has also been noted that if a distinguished, elderly scientist tells you something is possible you can be sure that it is.  If the same scientist tells you something is impossible you can be equally sure that he is wrong!

The prognostications for technology seem to fail because of the facination with the gee-whiz factor.  I can still remember many of the fabulous things (flying cars, ultra-modern architecture, space flight,...) we were supposed to have by 1980, 1990, 2000, etc, etc, etc!

As for the flying cars, look around you on the highway.  Would you really want those idiots over your head?  As for total computer control, absolutely nothing could go wrong, go wrong go wrong go wrong

HAPPY HOGMANAY!

3-D internet will definitely happen once IBM opens this up so everyone can start working on it.  By the way, having just been to the Forbidden City,I can't help noticing that Palmisino's image is at least two or three times larger than a real person would appear at the top of those steps. But I bet that is not a software malfunction, but a deliberate attempt to portray him as a giant of innovation.  The cell phone thing is pretty much inevitable.  It seems to me that phones are going to morph over time into universal communication devices capable of delivering any digital media anywhere at anytime with versions that will track your vital signs, monitor your safety, automatically report dangerous situations, etc.  There is simply a lot of money to be made by expanding the phone's capabilities.  Nanotechnology will most likely go beyond what you are predicting, but perhaps in more subtle innovations that impact numerous other products at an unseen level.  I hope the vision of purifying water gains traction, but it seems less driven by direct economic gain than many of the other possible uses for nanotechnology.  As a result, I am not so sure about that one.

I notice that animated appliances (i.e., forms of robots) have dropped off the list and that the emphasis is more on the extension of the individual's sensory abilities (eg. 3-D, telephones that read your mind, etc.).  I think this is much more on point.  The former fascination with robots reminded me of all those predictions when I was a kid about how everyone would have a personal air transportation device by the year 2000.

In summary, the predictions seem less like predictions than product development plans to me.  Five years is not a very long ways out and I would be concerned if we did not have a good grip on what will happen.  The tricky part is which ones of these items will truly be seen in five years as having had the most impact.  My guess is that five years later this list in hindsight will have missed the single most impactful innovation.

Nanotechnology can be the answer to more things than just water filtration. With the threat of global warming   could this be another way to filter some of the industrial air, water, chemical, radioactive pollutants that  are destroying the environment No, I am not a tree hugger, but they do have my attention.

Wasn't it an IBM pres or vp that predicted that the entire world would only need 5 computers?  Seeems to me to have been in the early to mid 1950's.

Considering the size and cost of an IBM mainframe at the time he may have thought he was quite daring.  Not up on the Bell Lab work on transistors and the aero-space miniaturization (If you can still see it, it's too big!) efforts, I guess.

Anti gravity ... there is basic research going on that is just starting (one hopes) to yield results. If we can harness, and obviate the 'weight' of gravity it will surpass even the wheel as the 'prime mover' of civilization. There is literally no aspect of life that won't be changed, from personal mobility to reaching the stars.

Gee whiz:
- 3-D Internet won't help me find stuff or buy stuff where location isn't relevant
- "Mind reading" is a pain - where do the rules come from and what if I change my mind?
- Nano is the only technology that has promise here - smaller batteries for one
- Telemedicine - we have had phones for 100 years and doctors are still reluctant to diagnose over the phone - sending your temperature and pulse won't change this
- Speech translation - very funny - if a device can't transcribe a meeting it can't translate it - still can't do the former

Nanotechnology will certainly play a pivotal role in our future; soon, with the introduction of lighter/stronger materials in the auto, space, and military industries, and later, with the introduction of molecular manufacturing.

Expect to see evolutionary changes in the solar, fuel cells and hydrogen storage technologies within the next few years.

And expect to see a great deal of interest in and subsequent higher funding of nanotech-enabled sensor technologies for military, homeland security and civilian applications within the next few years.

I'm inclined to believe that most predictions of the future will be wrong, or will be right with unexpected side-effects.

Consider the Internet: We have finally come close to achieving the "always connected" vision of the technology prophets of years past. And 90% of what comes over the Net is spam. Who predicted spam?

And did the people who visualized the Interstate Highway system even *begin* to imagine massive traffic jams that threaten (as in NYC) to become all-day affairs, road rage, or air pollution from auto exhaust?

As with VCRs and the Web, I do believe that one thing is sure: The first commercially-viable applications of any new technology will probably involve the sex industry in some way, shape, or form, and they will be the early adopters of the new technologies. Virtual worlds? 3-D internet? No-brainers. Nanotechnology will be used to create more realistic, "feels like the real thing" sex toys, or to advance the state of what's already being called "teledildonics."

Happy New Year, everyone!

In five years you'll see robots that are more graceful and mobile than ASIMO and look more human than Repliee Q1Expo.  Steve Jobs will buy one and they'll form a Ginger rider's gang.  Nanobots will be making better computer chips for sure, as well as attacking certain tumors, but good old fashioned engineered viruses will do a better job in the short term.

Also, anything that aids people in finding or sensing nearby potential sex partners will prove to be a market leading technology.  For those that still can't connect, look for 3D or virtual porn accompanied by huge advances in robotic accessories that will relegate french rubber products to the dustbin.

A disgusting thought, yes, but you know I'm right.  Unless A.I. takes over as the dominant life form, or Nanobots turn the world into a mass of grey goo, selfish DNA will still guide man's progress.

Buckminster Fuller was a great believer in technology as the saving grace of the human race. Nanotechnology will have a great effect, but will it create more problems? The market cares about profits and not benefits, unless they translate into profits. So let's hope the profitable direction of our new technology creates a beneficial side effect for everyday people!

David Smith:
"Nanotechnology will have a great effect, but will it create more problems?"

Have you read Michael Crichton's novel "Prey"?

Personally, out of the technologies cited above, I think real-time speech translation will have the biggest socio-political impact, assuming that it can be achieved efficiently. Think of the benefits of worldwide communication without boundaries. It would be like Babel in reverse.

It is my opinion that battery or other electric storage technology should be one of our most important geals for automobiles, home storage solar panels, and other devices that can be powered electrically.  We need rechargeable batteries that do not need hours to recharge, and that will last more than a year or two.
They need to be safe enough that we do not need to worry if your laptops or cellphones will burst into flame spontaneously.

The "NanoSafe" battery from Altair Nanotech, that is just now beginning to be used as the source of power in the Phoenix Motorcars electric car, will finally allow us to begin driving clean, silent, viable electric cars, and the same technology can be used in any other electrically powered application.

The NanoSafe Battery solves every problem that has kept electric cars from replacing gas guzzlers until now: it gives the Phoenix car a usable range of 250 miles between charges; the battery can be recharged safely in less than ten minutes; the battery has not been tested long enough to know just how long it will last, but so far it has survived something like 40,000 charge-discharge cycles, which means it may last for decades rather than the two or three years that has been the norm; the NanoSafe battery has been crushed, baked in ovens, pierced with nails, and overcharged, but never explodes or bursts into flame like the lithium-ion battery has been known to do.  And the Phoenix Motorcar has far better acceleration than the average car.

We need practical electric cars, and the Nanosafe makes this possible: no noise, no pollution, no wasting fuel at stop lights and in slow traffic, no immensely complicated mechanical systems-- just a small, powerful motor with one moving part.

The same tech can be used for laptop, cell phone, and other mobile batteries far superior to what we have now-- recharging in a minute or less, and that will outlive the device it is designed for.

MIT has a battery alternative-- the ultracapacitor-- that has spectacular energy density, simplicity and longevity; as soon as they can reduce manufacturing costs, it can provide another route to practical electric vehicles and other applications.

Hi Wade, Yes...  Flying cars have been promised for many years but technology is finally making it a much more realistic proposition.  Composites are finally making their way into every facet of our lives and are a much-needed weight-saving factor.  Jet engines are becoming much more fuel efficient (20-mpg) and quiet (due to larger/low speed/swept fan blades), which not only saves weight but also permits operations right down to the neighborhood level.  Such new engines are extremely long-lived, safe, and take very little maintenance when compared to early jet engines.  Wafer-thin conformal radar is also extremely simple (not mechanically driven) yet can provide flyers with 360-degree coverage!  Fly-by-wire is another key and would enable computer control.  

Limiting such aerial vehicles to a taxi service would be the answer to preventing yahoos from flying. Such aircraft are so fast and DIRECT it would be foolish to own one yourself. A taxi concept also makes a single neighborhood drop-off/pickup point more viable than everyone trying to land in their driveway.  Planning ahead for such times, people need to consider more soundproof windows and even rooftop landing pads for smaller "Airbikes" which might be something we can afford more readily.  

What a lovely array of opinions!  But don't forget that money speaks...and loudly, too.  Television was the subject of a great debate among science-fiction fans when I was young  --  was it an entertainment device (in many stories) or a communications tool (in many other stories)??? No, it quickly became a major way to spread advertising, and just as quickly learned how to target those ads toward prospective buyers instead of just broadcasting holus-bolus to everyone.

Nothing will replace private cars powered by gasoline until it runs out --  big oil and the military will see to that! Human/robots will not become aordable and common soon, but robotics will help, as it does now, with some medical procedures, criminal investigations, and information processing, limited by financial resource.  Translation of other languages will not be necessary as English will prevail (look at the images of signs from Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, etc.).

But nanotech will slip under the radar and get established before it can be halted, and then it will be used by a new group of moneymakers to make more billionaires in the water business.  That is, if global warming doesn't make most of us superfluous first.

Unfortunately, I think the increasing "impersonalness" of technology will make identity theft an ever more increasing crime and efforts to prove you were a victim of it just as increasingly difficult as well. Also I think more and more violations of privacy will become the norm. Who bats an eye now when the news announces that some hacker has access to names and SSN's of thousands of individuals? Pretty soon we'll all be in one big database and no database is 100% secure.

field propulsion and gravity manipulation - we should really pursue these avenues of technology. kinetic energy, water purification systems, and a process that will eliminate beaurocratic red tape and increase effenciency of well aimed programs and intentions

Looking forward, I was surprised to learn that there is a new (and simple) valve that magically has doubled the efficiency of seawater desalinization (now being tested in LA). Apparently the energy they use to try to force the water through the filters was half wasted but the integration of this new valve makes the same amount of energy do twice the work! At the same time we are increasing water purification, we must try to reduce our consumption as well. I myself use a simple gallon jug to capture the initial cold water from a shower and then pour that water into the toilet tank as it is trying to refill after a flush.

I predict that talk of the hydrogen highway will get louder, will appear to be a unstoppable juggernaut, then will be suddenly canceled when it is revealed that hydrogen is destroying the ozone layer.

OPEC will breathe a huge sigh of relief, until oil consumption plummets due to some surprising new technology - and the unexpected revival of some old ideas.

I want to commend Chris Eldridge for his water-wise efforts - not everyone has his sense of water's true value. But I get the impression he really wants his 'flying taxi' to take off right away. Good luck, Chris. But as a citizen of the country with the best and most fresh water which is rapidly going the way of the Dodo, I believe the water shortage now and in the future will force all of mankind to migrate further north (Florida will not be a pleasant peninsula for much longer), or south in the lower half of the world. All glaciers in the world, repositors and renewers of fresh water are shrinking quickly within the parameters of global warming. No invention or system of 'renewable resources' will be enough to support the current 8 billion people (and their pets, livestock, and wilderness dwellers) when the equatorial deserts expand exponentially. Except nanotechnology and cheap, easy conversion of salt-water to fresh-water. Someone will become rich.

Nobody cares about DNA anymore? It will not be a surprise to me if DNA research be succssfully applied on longitivity, and some people start chewing a MAX-L-SPAN as a daily supplement. Actors/actresses will look younger and make you wonder if are watching an episode played by their offspring.

DNA research extends life span

Xerox invented the 3d internet years ago. It's either been 17 years or IBM is infringing on the patent. Look it up!

:) Thanks Des! I also don't flush just for #1s. As for flying cars, five years may seem a bit too soon to look for them but NASA suggested they could be in service by 2014. I actually think delays to this point are caused as much from our own lack of knowing how we plan to use them (when they are available) as it is a matter of technology. The Mollor 400, for example, has far too lofty performance goals and it is geared for individual owners ready to head to the beach (from Okalahoma) on the first nice day of summer. If, instead, we envision only a rapid, local, transit-type taxi service, we can see that half the Moller 400 performance would suffice. I really think such things as flying cars are just as (if not more) a viable solution to traffic as projects like the Big Dig, and lowering traffic increases fuel economy!

No flying cars please! Imagine teenagers parked over your house at 1am on a Friday night, bass turned up so it shakes your shingles and dropping fastfood wrappers and beer bottles on your roof!

What inovation? Looks like something from DOOM or Tomb Raiders circa 1996!

"A virtual version of IBM's chairman and CEO, Sam Palmisano, stands in a replica of China's Forbidden City to announce the company's 3-D Internet initiative."

I for one welcome our new Nanobot Overlords !

looking forward:
". . . and a process that will eliminate bureaucratic red tape and increase efficiency of well aimed programs and intentions"

If anyone invents that, I think they would deserve a Nobel Prize, IMO! But I think IT was initially to achieve exactly that--cut down on bureaucracy and red tape. If the IT revolution wasn't able to change that, then I don't think anything else ever will!

CM:
"I predict that talk of the hydrogen highway will get louder, will appear to be a unstoppable juggernaut, then will be suddenly canceled when it is revealed that hydrogen is destroying the ozone layer."

Considering that hydrogen fuel-cell powered engines release H2O (water vapor) as their fuel emissions, I doubt very much that it will have an adverse effect on the ozone layer or environment in other ways. If anything, it would increase the likelihood of rainfall.

Well I think that's brilliant - IBM, a computer company, taking the lead in technologies that could actually benefit humanity.  

Good for them and I wish them the very best of luck - I hope they continue and see these things through!

I mean, we live on a planet of water and most of it salt water, so if a nanomesh or nanofilter can be used to filter salt water then good.

If the world allows nanotechnology to be used and is not frightened of it or too beaurocratic to allow it then it could bring about all sorts of benefits ranging from health benefits to reconstruction or construction of anything we want - even real solid constructs of ourselves during conversations over the internet.

All autonomously via AI if you like.

Then there is the possiblity of IBM combining ideas for new applications.
Imagine IBM using grid computing communities it has nutured in order to process the data needed to make reconstructions of things to produce a 3D reconstruction made of nanomaterials?

Researchers studying the thing that has been reconstructed would find that helpful surely?

Then there could be swarms of helix turbine bots (very small) in the Troposphere which form a network, which then produce electricity from the Jet Stream and beam it to a low orbit satillite via resonance, and transmit it back to Earth for us to use...or IBM could use different bits of the Sun's energy not currently used yet to move away from solar cells (very inefficient) to something more efficient!

It is said that we are only using a very very small percentage of the energy that hits the Earth from the Sun.

Let's use it then!

Keep going, IBM!

Well I hope all of this wonderful technology can work under 50 ft of water. Lets continue to waste our great minds on gadgets while we slowly cook away. At least the human race will die with a smile on its face.

What happened to Fusion technology? It's already in it's burgeoning infancy, but 5 years should begin seeing it blooming. Another huge improvement would be anything that either feeds and waters our humongous world population, and eliminates 90% of it.

I believe in coldfusion. It is the technology that will free humans from the dependance on oil to drive transportation.

I am hoping that Microlaunchers will be a factor in the development of space exploration by a large community through frequent opportunity to use very small spacecraft, via a process anagolous to the advent of the microcomputer.

Oh, it's nice to have dreams come true  --  like cold fusion,  or hot fusion (controlled), or solar power, or wind power, or wave power, but the keyword is 'controlled.'  The absolute solution will be when we learn how to generate electricity directly from coils of wire wrapped around magnets without the intervention of third parties like 'solar' 'wind' 'wave' or 'atomic' to supply the start-up.  Is it possible?  I can recall a number of years ago asking a scientist why we couldn't invent a coating for glass windows that would pass light through but block heat.  He said "The second law of thermodynamics."  I just installed a new window that lets me see out but blocks anyone seeing in, is low-energy keeping heat out in the summer and in in the winter, and which washes itself when it rains.  Is anyone listening?

John Tidball, Anniston, AL wrote;

"Another huge improvement would be anything that either feeds and waters our humongous world population, and eliminates 90% of it."

Starvation would do it, or nuclear war, or a horrible virus...

Des Emery, St. Thomas, ON, Canada wrote;

"He said "The second law of thermodynamics.""

Amazing these laws, they are not laws - just statements of something that has been observed consistantly under controlled circumstances over a period of time.

I have read that the way science progresses is not by scientists disovering new things or applying old ideas in new ways - but in younger generations of scientists doing those things when the older ones who say it cannot be done die off.

A cynical point of view but it makes you think...

Some of the above comments I agree with , some I dont, but...

One of the above comment pushed one of my buttons...

"identity theft" ISN'T !!!!!

The newsies should be calling it "identity fraud" rather then "identity theft" (but the word "theft" grabs your attention)

Theft is the act of relocating something from one location to someplace else without permission.

What is happening is that Person A is pretending to be Person B - while Person B continues to live their life.  There is no "theft" per se.

So let's call it by its right name - "identity fraud".

A couple of places I think they miss.  First 3-D Websites will quickly become virtual Web Zones, no longer web sites.  People will actually create alternate realities within them.  Wealthy people will hire "designers" to create virtual Worlds.  People will begin to create what might be called their Book of Life and it will be passed down generation to generation.

A second point they apparently missed entirely is the revolution about to come from the drug industry.  All the drug laws concerning what individuals may or may not ingest will be repealed because of expense and because the drug companies want it that way.  They a vast array of designer drugs will be unleashed upon the public, but not via pill ingestion but through the use of transdermal patches which will be called "Derms" on the street.

If anyone is interested I have an entire essay on this subject published a couple of years ago.

Finally : (

took the initiative long enough; I have been saying this for a few years now.so its almost insulting for some newb to come in and report it after my claims of where the internet is going.my earliest claims to this go as far back as early last year as far as it bieng documented online. But i have said this for at least 3 years.

ranting aside heres the future; The internet will go beyond simple 3d graphics fast,the virtual representation you see here is squat,with dx10 cards and quad cpu's we will be able to attain high end gaming gfx quality online;that is within 5 yrs as a capable thing.Web designers will be demanded to know gaming style graphics and planning..the ordinary computer will be highly taxed for surfing until more capable platforms are made.look to AMD's fusion and torrenza,and 4x4 for the future proof tech.

what this tech really hinges on is programmers, capable of optimizing for paralell processing. when you think of the future of the web think of hollywood style movie rendering,and better.

so think of the future in terms of cell processing and multiple cpu gpu configurations,and accelerators found currently in servers.The 3d web isnt crap as shown here, compared to the immersive capabilities we actually have.

browsers of the future will be quaint,lets say Ie goes for the interstellar theme;you log on to your pc;and after loading you hit the internet and instead of pages and links you are in front of a virtual gps of the world with preplotted coordinates mapping your world interest;a voice in the cockpit of your virtual web space browser tells you of the days topics; but since you are in the mood for shopping you plot the navigation and fight through some bandit hordes on the way, as you enter the shopping mall world the thermal indicators reveal a hairline fracture in your ships insulation that reveals a need for a firewall update (brilliant thinking on my part for this one).so you leave your ship at the malls garage for updating and carouse  through the infinite shops taking the elevator to dog leashy store ,because thats all you wanted.

Oh yeah pardon the sarcasm of my first post,it was meant with humor.I have been rolling around ideas for a 3d internet for a long time,And for IBM to just announce the initiative,is a headscratcher.This was not a flame on the author,it was a flame on the industry.I have been shooting off about 3d web for along time to alot of people,so this seems slow to the table compared to what we have the abilities for.

My apologies to the author for the inappropriate humor.

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