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Quantum fluctuations in space, science, exploration and other cosmic fields... served up regularly by MSNBC.com science editor Alan Boyle since 2002.

Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award and other honors; a contributor to "A Field Guide for Science Writers"; and a member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing.

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Final-frontier politics

Posted: Monday, October 23, 2006 4:54 PM by Alan Boyle

For most political junkies, the recently announced national space policy is hardly a blip compared with the congressional page scandal and the war in Iraq. But at least one political heavyweight, former Vice President Al Gore, sees the White House’s new perspective on space as a case of Iraq all over again. Gore lambasted the policy during an off-the-record luncheon address in New Mexico - and like most off-the-record talks to a large group, this one has spilled onto the blogosphere, complete with a video clip.

The snippet from the Wirefly X Prize Cup Executive Summit - which took place in Las Cruces, N.M., last Thursday - features Gore's reaction to the idea that the United States should have maximum "freedom of action" in space.

The idea isn't new: For years, the Pentagon has worried about a future "Pearl Harbor" in space, in light of the fact that satellite reconnaissance and communications have become essential for the modern military. Just in the past couple of weeks, such concerns were heightened by reports that the Chinese had tried to use high-powered lasers to blind U.S. satellites.

In response, the United States has resisted international initiatives to place limitations on military space activities, and that has raised worries abroad - justified or not - that the Pentagon might be planning to deploy advanced space weapons, touching off an orbital arms race. There have also been reports that the U.S. military is looking into ways to disable or even shut down the vital Global Positioning System in a crisis.

In Gore's view, a policy of space unilateralism would repeat the mistakes made in Iraq. Here's his explanation, as reported in the Popular Science Blog:

"Very few people have analyzed the insides of this new space policy. I urge all of you who are interested in space to analyze it very carefully. It has the potential, down the road, to create the [same] kind of fuzzy thinking and chaos in our efforts to exploit the space resource as the fuzzy thinking and chaos the Iraq policy has created in Iraq. It is a very serious mistake, in my opinion.

“We in the United States of America may claim that we alone can determine who goes into space and who doesn’t, what it’s used for and what it’s not used for, and we may claim it effectively as our own dominion to the exclusion, when we wish to exclude others, of all others. That’s hubristic.”

Gore's comments on the space policy represent just one section of his X Prize Cup talk - which also touched upon what he has called the "climate crisis" and the importance of using the "space resource."

I was a fly on the wall during the summit, and his comments sure sounded like on-the-record observations to me. But when I asked him to confirm that the speech was on the record (which is the usual courtesy at an off-the-record event), he basically said no. Later, when I asked him again whether there was any on-the-record statement he'd be willing to make about the space policy, he told me, "Not at this time."

Maybe the X Prize Cup talk was just a test drive for a future public pronouncement. Be that as it may, Gore's views on the space issue are now out in the open - and they're already starting to draw fire ("just one more reason why Democrats can't be trusted with national security'). The White House policy pronouncement has also come in for some flak (for its "jingoistic and downright belligerent tone").

How the Bush administration views the final military frontier may seem like no big deal to most Americans. But commentators in other countries have been more vocal about their concerns, saying the new space policy meshes with their other worries about unilateralism in U.S. foreign policy.

For a sampling, check out a Canadian view from The Globe and Mail, a British view from The Times of London and a Chinese view from People's Daily. If you can read Russian (or use Babelfish), you can get Radio Mayak's perspective on America as the world's "space cop."

Is the new space policy a case of unilateral déjà vu all over again? A sensible step toward defending the high frontier? Or no big deal? Almost half the readers who have registered their opinion in our unscientific Live Vote support putting weapons in space. But as a reader has pointed out below, almost half are against it. What do you think - and why do you feel the way you do? Feel free to leave your comments below.

Update for 1:20 p.m. PT Oct. 24: Charles Miller, chief executive officer of Constellation Services International, noted the Popular Science report as well as a reference to Gore's remarks by Space.com's Leonard David at LiveScience:

"Unfortunately, neither one of them published the part that I was most interested in ... which is Gore's statement that space right now is in the exact same position that the Internet was in the 1970s ... and that space needs to be commercialized in order to achieve its full potential ... just like the Internet only achieved its full potential by being commercialized.

"This is a critically important statement by Gore on the commercial space industry that needs to get out ... particularly to the Dems who are likely to take over the House and possibly the Senate."

Although I'm not off the hook as far as the off-the-record rule is concerned, it's intriguing to think of space as a resource to be exploited as well as a destination to be explored - and, by the way, a potential military frontier as well.

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Comments

Space is a big and new horizon that will take many generations to explore. We need new and big ideas in which all people can live. The short sightedness of one nation (my country) shouldn't dictate how others explore this new and vast frontier. Weapons should only be employed for defensive purposes only. Life as we are learning is rare and precious.
It is disappointing to hear that our arrogance is going to ruin the last frontier that we have to unify the world. Space, and for that matter our solar system, belongs to all mankind. It should be a global effort to explore and if we want to colonize space. It is our last great opportunity to leave all of our flaws and disagreements that plague the current global society behind and start anew with a unified existence.
Louis Friedman of Planetary Society has written a well-thought-out commentary on this 'policy statement,' where he points out its fundamentally belligerent overtones; he also point out that the administration that issued it may soon lose a lot of its power.
Low earth orbit and earth to moon space will be controlled by whatever country puts the most money and effort into establishing permanent bases there. Not these tinfoil contraptions that they have been nursing for the last 25-30 years. The huff and puff hubris of the Bush administration means nothing without the investment in time and money to back it up. Many of the cutting edge projects that could have made it possible had their funding cut as soon as the going got tough. (project Prometheus for example.) Can you imagine the outcome if the US were to shoot down another countries satellites, let alone a manned mission to build an outpost that "threatend" US space superiority. As for weapons in space, after all the cold war years and rocket launches with "military satellites" on board, it would be foolish to assume they are not already up there.
Now that GPS works correctly, the US military has become hugely dependent on it - and a war-time president is hugely dependent on his military might. The new policy, as much as it inspires other nations to fear US leaders, expresses the fears that haunt those US leaders. Other nations have voiced concerns that the US government has deep pockets for research and development of military space concepts - but forget that the US government also has a climate that wastes money and stifles innovation. If technological progress were all about budgets, Robert H. Goddard's minimally-funded team would not have led the way on liquid-fueled rocket research - and if the new US space policy seeks to deny space access to any other nation, it underestimates our competitors in space enterprise. This policy is just an exercise in lightsaber-rattling.
Protecting yourself with a paper shield (a treaty that you know other nations have disregarded in the past) is not an attractive strategy to many people, who remember a long history of Russian space weapons developments that did NOT trigger a 'space arms race' only because they made no military sense. But Russia always seems to get a 'pass' for its transgressions from space arms control advocates -- who then act baffled about why the US government is less than confident in the efficacy of such paper protections.
"Weapons for defensive purposes"?? Against whom, the Alpha-Centauris on the march? (I'm sure there are people out there in fear of that). There should be an international law against any military platform or weapon of any sort over a certain height (15 miles, 20 miles?). And that should also be extended to cover any planetary exploration in the future. Keeps the weapons on Earth, they have no business anywhere else.
Gore might well be on to something here. I guess we're not happy just trashing our own planet with shortsighted political gamesmanship; now we're moving into the higher plane. Beware...something might be watching...haven't we seen this one already? Klaatu-barada-nikto!
I think that Mr. Gore is right. Short sighted policies that will inevitably affect the future seem to be the trademark of the current administration. I read a study that stated by the year 2050 humans will need two Earths to supply what we use. This new policy will undoubtedly affect that (most likely in a bad way).
Much ado about very little. For all the heavy-breathing talk since 1957 about "high ground" and "Pearl Harbor in space," the only military functions in orbit that make sense are the same as the civilian functions that pay for themselves -- remote sensing, communications, and navigation -- and for the same reasons. Nobody can afford to orbit either the mass or the power sources needed for orbital battle stations and all the rest of the zoomy Powerpoints. And even if we could: do we really want a future in which *no one* can get to space because the bloodless Pyongyang-Caracas-Islamabad Orbital Skirmish of 2037 has filled LEO with debris for centuries to come? As Jim Oberg says, the Russian initiatives made no military sense. Where we may differ is that I don't lose much sleep over policies or treaties under which we would give up the right to do equally senseless things.
Since when is it belligerent to declare that US assets will not be unhindered in the use of space? Belligerent would be if we declared that we will hinder other countries' use of space - there's nothing like that in the policy. This is spin, and shame on Gore for perpetuating it. He didn't even have the backbone to go on the record with it, and for good reason - his comments won't stand up to scrutiny.
Here's something for the North Koreans to try... they can't load a nuke onto one of their missiles and get it to Japan, much less the US, but they probably can send a nuke straight up ~150 miles. So, every time a nice big cluster of GPS sats, spy sats, polar orbiting sats, etc (or even, on a good day, a Space Shuttle or an ISS) floats overhead, NK shoots up a nuke, detonates it overhead, and EMPs the heck out of the satellites. Sure, they screw up their own ground-based infrastructure, but So What? They are probably still using vacuum tubes anyway.
The Pentagon designed and paid for the GPS system. For the first few years they purposely introduced jitter in the carriers accessed by the civilian recievers. They don't have to "look into" ways to shut it down. All they have to do is reach over and flip a switch and they can selectively shut down any portion of it they want to. That's why the EU has been trying to figure out how to pay for one of their own. The real genius of the whole plan was to make it available to civilians so as to short-circuit any investment in a competing system. I thank God that we finally have a president that puts America first in all our policy decisions, even when it makes our "allies" angry.
Putting weapons in space at this point in time and justifying it by saying it is in our 'national security interests' would only provoke other nations to do the same. Look what happened with nuclear weapons. The US built a ton of them, then said no one else can have them; but when we look today more an more countries (and more unstable countries) are getting nukes every decade. Placing weapons in space will in fact not ensure our national security, but only force the hand of other countries to place weapons in space to be on equal footing with us. I for one would rather have no weapons in space instead of possibly provoking others (say China) to put weapons in space.
It seems that "off the record" these days actually means "subject to exclusive media coverage." Hey Alan, didn't you get the email warning media to stay away from the Summit?
There are valuable military and civil assets in space (at this time meaning Earth orbit, but not necessairily always limited to this). It's perfectly reasonable to want to protect these assets and have everyone know that you will do so. (and as the gentleman ftom Texas noted, we may expect others with the means, to do the same) And what do we mean by 'weapons?' For what it may be worth, the US and many others are already a signatories to a 1967 treaty* that forbids basing 'weapons of mass destruction' (back when that really only meant nuclear weapons) beyond the atmosphere. At the other extreme, does 'weapons' mean a station crew's sidearms? With the difference in velocities objects in orbit can easily have, even throwing a pail of sand in the right direction, at the right time, can be devastating to something colliding with it (consider the effects of orbital debris, done with deliberation). If we want spaceflight to become common in the future, we must acknowledge now, that we cannot know who is carrying what in every launch from every country capable of either building, or eventually, buying and operating spacecraft. Human nature won't change just because humans (and/or their valuable assets) operate beyond the atmosphere. A policy that states that interference with those of the United States will be defended against, is simple acknowledgement of that. And failure to acknowledge it, to assume that nothing but good will always prevails in LEO and beyond, enhances no one's security. * http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/ost/text/space1.htm
I missed that e-mail, Robin. As a matter of fact, I had naively assumed the shindig would be open to press coverage. The organizers were kind enough to let me in at the last minute, and I (mostly) tried to behave myself.
The US's change in foreign policy has put the entire world on edge. Even before 9/11 and Iraq they took extremely provocative measures when they sent spy planes and a naval ship 20 miles off the coast of a Chinese naval base. I very much agree with the EU's decision to fly its own GPS system in the event the US decides to shut own its own. I personally don’t know much of anything regarding weapons in space these days. Anti satellite systems have been around for many years. Back in the Mid 1980s the soviets had lasers that could interfere with them so drumming this up as a new threat seems a bit political. I am admittedly very surprised there is not more criticism of the flag-waving race back to the moon. Even if you agree with this plan, there are serious issues with how they are going about it and what they are cutting to get it.
Almost half the readers who have registered their opinion in our unscientific Live Vote think militarizing space is a bad idea - but because the "bad idea" vote is split, it at first glance looks to be less than the "Yay starwars" vote. Total "bad idea" was 48% vs. 47% for "Yay starwars".
Why does anyone even listen to Al Gore? Why should we take seriously a man who travels the globe telling everyone how bad and nasty we are for consuming energy. Am I the only person who believe's that if Al Gore is so concerned with energy consumption he should be riding in a horse drawn buggy and traveling oversea's in a sail boat without a motor? Maybe next time Mr. Why does anyone even pay attention to this man?
With the republicans, its always about money and war. How do you exploit it?. If this thinking persists, we will be more like the borg than the UFP.


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