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The smaller object in this photo is thought to be a brown-dwarf companion that orbits the distant star Gliese 229. Some have worried that our sun has a similar companion whose gravitational effect periodically sends more comets toward Earth — but the latest analysis of cometary data shows no sign of such an effect.
Doomsayers have been wringing their hands for years over the possibility that an unseen companion to our sun periodically diverts a hail of comets toward Earth, sparking mass extinctions like cosmic clockwork. Now an astronomer has shown that the evidence for such a cycle in the flux of comets or asteroids doesn't actually exist.
The research is the latest knock against claims that the dark companion, nicknamed Nemesis or the "Death Star," might be out to get us in 2012.
Like many other 2012 myths, the Nemesis hypothesis had a smidgen of scientific research behind it. Back in 1984, paleontologists proposed that there seemed to be a 27 million-year cycle of extinctions that may have had an extraterrestrial cause. The prime suspect was a hypothetical brown dwarf or red dwarf that disrupted the orbits of comets on the solar system's fringe and sent them screaming earthward.
Nemesis has gotten swept up with the Planet X hypothesis, which holds that an as-yet-undetected planet will wreak havoc on Earth — and both those hypotheses have fed into worries about a 2012 apocalypse supposedly foretold by the ancient Maya calendar.
You've probably already figured out that the worries are totally bogus, and not just because the "long count" calendar used by the Maya was merely a calendar and not a fortune-telling device.
Last year, researchers reported that if the Nemesis companion existed, it wouldn't orbit in a nice, precise 27 million-year cycle. That study, published in the Royal Astronomical Society Letters, was portrayed as the "final nail in the coffin" for the Nemesis hypothesis. But the researchers still couldn't explain why extinctions seemed to peak every 27 million years.
"For me, it's a complete head-scratcher," University of Kansas physicist Adrian Melott said at the time.
Don't panic
Now a researcher at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Coryn Bailer-Jones, essentially says that Melott can stop with the scratching. His analysis, published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, suggests that the seeming periodicity may look like a pattern but actually is a statistical artifact.
"There is a tendency for people to find patterns in nature that do not exist," Bailer-Jones said in a report from the Max Planck Institute. "Unfortunately, in certain situations traditional statistics plays to that particular weakness."
Bailer-Jones looked at variations in the rate of cratering on our planet over time, using an alternative method for evaluating probabilities known as Bayesian statistical analysis. Bayesian analysis provides a reality check for statisticians who think they see patterns in their data, and in this case, the analysis ruled out simple periodic variations. Instead, the figures pointed to a steady trend of increased cratering over the past 250 million years.
Bailer-Jones said there are two possible explanations for the perceived rise: It may be that when you're looking at smaller craters, the older ones are harder to spot due to erosion. That would leave you with the impression that an increasing number of small craters are being created as you go forward through time. And in fact, Bailer-Jones said the trend toward more craters seemed to go away "if we look only at craters larger than 35 kilometers and younger than 400 million years, which are less affected by erosion and in-filling."
The other explanation would be that the increase in the cratering rate is real. The institute said some analyses of craters on the moon, where the scars left behind by cosmic collisions are not subject to erosion or in-filling, suggest the impact rate may be rising. But if scientists accept that explanation, they're left with another head-scratcher: What's causing the rising rate?
"From the crater record, there is no evidence of Nemesis," Bailer-Jones said. "What remains is the intriguing question of whether or not impacts have become ever more frequent over the past 250 million years."
Update for 9:05 p.m. ET: Over at the Bad Astronomy blog, Phil Plait clearly explains the impact (heh, heh) of Bayesian analysis on the cratering question:
"This is different than standard statistics, and is less prone to bias due to uncertainties in age and size of craters. In using standard statistics, clusters in crater ages can always be found, but it’s hard to know if that’s just a random clump or has an actual physical cause — like flipping a coin 10 times and having it come up heads 5 times in a row. It’s unlikely, but how do you know if it’s coincidence or not? Bayesian methods circumvent that issue."
More from 2012 Watch:
- The end is not near
- Don't fret over Planet X
- Stressed by storms and supernovas?
- Alien invaders vs. the truth squad
- Solar cycle sparks doomsday buzz
- French village flooded by doomsday survivalists
- 'End of the world' delayed ... by Mayan calendar
If you're looking for an additional antidote to 2012 hysteria, check out 2012hoax.org. Join the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the blog's Facebook page or following b0yle on Twitter. You'll even find references to Planet X and 2012 hype in a chapter of my book, "The Case for Pluto."
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I think on December 22nd, 2012, I am going to dig a nice flat space in the snow, break out a lawn chair, chew some Alkezelter tablets, sit in the lawn chair wearing swiming trunks and combat boots, and talk backwards to everyone I see. All day.
I'm thinking an end of the world party will be in order with appropriately named libations. :)
Hahaha. Too funny.
Thanks for the laugh Eric!
I thought the world ended on August 29, 1997? Why are we still looking for it to happen?
Guys, guys... we all know that the world is currently under judgment, Jesus returned spiritually-speaking, and the show is over October 21, 2011.
It must be true. Harold Camping used his 80 years of bible study to prove it. : )
which prior distribution did he used in conjunction with the likelihood? and how did they know that was the appropriate prior to use?
Spoken like a Bayesian adept! You'll have to check his priors in the research paper. Here's the preprint to check:
http://de.arxiv.org/abs/1105.4100
I'm just curios, when I took astronomy in high school and last year in college, all the fear of destruction I learned about was based on the unpredictable and unknown nature of the ort cloud. Where has all that speculation gone?I guess those planet sized asteroids aren't that much of a threat...
Here's another question:
Was the Bayesian analysis run only on the crater frequency, or on extinction frequency as well? The article seemed to suggest that the conclusion applies to the latter, but only actually told us the analysis was done on the former. If that's the case, then it only proves that asteroids don't cause a regular, cyclical extinction event, not that such events don't happen (due to another cause).
must be nice to be so smart to be able to tell everything that is going on everywhere all the time
Well, the Nemesis hypothesis was kind of a gimme...
Could not the simple solution to increased cratering be increased gravity from Earth's steady accretion of materials as its own gravity pulls in objects from its orbital path? Thus, gravity would rise over time drawing more and more distant objects into collision.
Effect of that is negligible, unless something really massive is pulled in. Which won't happen.
In any case, it's impossible to pinpoint the end of the world to a single date unless the Mayans had an appointment with aliens.
Not only that, the Mayans were not predicting the end of the world. Only the end of one Age, and the start of a new Age.
The start of a new age? So there is a new Yanni album coming out next year? That's a pretty advanced prediction on the part of the Maya.
Spartan - "won't happen" sounds so absolute. "Hasn't happened since the formation of the moon" and "Is extremely (very!) unlikely to happen" would be more accurate. In any event if something large enough to measureably alter the gravity of earth does impact our worries are over.
I can't wait until 2013, so I can stop hearing about the Mayans and their stupid calendar.
Sorry but the only way that will happen is if the end of the world really comes. Otherwise you're going to be hearing endlessly about how it was wrong or we must have made a mistake and the sync between our calendar and the Mayan's calendar is not correct and the true date for the end of the world will be <Insert new date here>.
Actually, I thought I had already heard that the sync was wrong and the end of the age had already happened.
Gneisenau, you forgot about the ancient Aztec prophecies, or Babylonian, or the readings of tea leaves passed through the entrails of a chicken in China.
There will always be idiots claiming to know when the world will end. The most frustrating are the Christian ones, because the very text they're using as the basis for their predictions tells us that any such predictions are false. Gotta love the logic on that one. :)
@ C Smith - LOL, no I didn't forget about them, I was just limiting my comments to the subject of the Mayan calendar. There isn't a larger enough forum here to include all the end of the world predictions.
I don't understand why Christians would worry about the end of the world. Wouldn't their King and Kingdom be in effect?
Seems like the perfect time for Christians.
That is actually the worst part, they get the "hundred mile stare" and start smiling when they think about the end of the world because they want it to come. For them, it's like christmas, they get to go "home" to heaven, where they will be happy forever and ever. To them, the world we live in is just a crappy truck-stop on they way to their true destination, which is why they don't care if they pee on the seat while they're here.
Devout christians and muslims scare the crap out of me. Mayan calendar freaks are the least of my worries, they are just annoying.
I cant wait till the spaghetti monster comes back to collect us on his pirate tall ship so I can sail the seas and drink rum...Ramen
Both sides seem to make a lot of assumptions, or should I say facts in some cases.
You can say what you like, and I don't care what kind of evidence you produce, nothing is going to stop me from believing that the world is going to end on December 21, 2012. It's a proven scientific fact and I'm not going to pay any attention to any evidence to the contrary!
You're a fool, you know that right?
No more than you're a complete idiot for failing to recognize sarcasm.
Like Paul Krugman said:
"If 99 people said the world is round and 1 person said the world is flat, the media would portray it as 'Experts disagree on the shape of the planet.'"
what scientific evidence do you have that the world is going to end on 2012, i know...NONE you sir are what we call an pathetic internet troll
I gotta go with X on this one. My sarcasm meter is pinging at 'Off The Wall'. I'm surprised the sarcasm trap has pulled in so many.
I'm with Vince. The scientific proof is overwhelming.
I have your stuff then?
The 33 cents in my pocket? Sure, why not.
I read these articles with a lot of humor. I laugh at these doomsayers with glee. I only wish that they could be in front of me when the day comes and goes so that I may laugh hysterically in their faces so they can see how foolish they are. Once December 21, 2012 passes the next day they will already have another date to claim the world will end. It's been this way since humans could talk. Until the sun goes and it will, the Earth will be here for millions of years to come, humans maybe not so much.
Laugh now, but not in the future, I traveled back in time just as the 2012 Disaster was happening. "Person named X"said you failed to recognize sarcasm. So I'm just joking about everything.
I'm still reeling from the breakdown of society that occurred on 12-31-1999!!
Well Im still not buying my kids any presents since they wont be able to open them four days later. I am saving a ton of money next year!
For what? How many clouds do you plan on buying in heaven?
Wait, you aren't buying presents because you assume an apocalypse is upon us (hence no need for presents) yet you're satisfied about saving money? Money for what? Joke post?
Yes, joke post. Complete sarcasm.
Pop open a beer, and chill, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, nobody.
Tomorrow: The sun will rise, the sun will set. Politicians will lie and there will be unrest in the Middle East.
I'll be waiting for your apology. :D :D :D :D
Yep and some folks will die and some will live and we'll all have to pay our taxes!
No apology necessary. :-)
There are only two certainties in life: Death and taxes. And we're working on Death.
Bizzer, you were totally right.
Everyone make sure you have new Nike shoes on and a roll of quarters in your pocket.The comet is making a return on 12-21-2012 and our ship will be hidden behind it.They are all waiting for us with open arms.Don't worry I'll bring refreshments.(wink)
And make sure to put the roll of quarters in a sock. That way you can mug the aliens and steal their ride when they get here! :p
Yet another slow news day, Alan? Sheesh, I hope they didn't waste TOO much money on that "research"!!LOL
Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.
Evan Esar
I can prove anything by statistics except the truth.
George Canning
If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.
Ernest Rutherford
In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies.
Stephen Leacock
Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination.
Vin Scully
There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
Mark Twain
I thought the Twain quote was: There are, in this order, lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Statistics is easy.
Statistics only confuses 30% of those who don't understand statistics 70% of the time. 40% of the time the average person always understands it at least as much as the other third of the population. Give or take...
"The problem with internet quotes and statistics are that 8 out of 10 are wrongfully believed to be real." - Abraham Lincoln
Good Ol' Abe was a man ahead of his time.
You believe or not, it's still something to look forward to.
Sure hope not, have enough problems
Good thing is we have dates tied to "doomsday" philosophy. I don't think any of these folks want the world to undergo catastrophic changes, they just believe it will and are trying to prepare folks. No different than an insurance agent trying to tell me to buy flood insurance in Arizona!
I thought the reason for increased impacts was due to our sun going in and out of the spiral arm as it revolves around the galaxy. And that when it does if travels thru areas where the gravity of other stars/objects/ect causes objects in the ort cloud to be nudged from their current position.
Yeah, but that's too technical for most people. And it's not actually in and out of the spiral arm. It's a galactic north-south oscillation with the gravitational disturbance occurring in the middle. We stay well away from either spiral arm at all times.
http://www.2012hoax.org/galactic-alignment
Wasn't the Death Star recently found orbiting Pluto? It got here a little ahead of schedule and needed to park somewhere.
That's why they really downgraded Pluto's planet status. So the Death Star wouldn't be so tempted to 'properly display' it's power on a measly planetoid. ;P
The old Pluto decoy trick. Excellent. Gives us time before the Earth shattering kaboom.
I am enjoying reading everyone's post and absolutely DELIGHTED that the Jesus freaks haven't entered into the dialogue like they always do in the science division.
You know, calling people freaks is probably just going to piss people off enough to say something. So if the religion starts arollin' in, I blame you lol.
Umm, mart, we call ourselves Jesus Freaks. There's even a song about it by DC Talk.
Plus, we laugh at these things, too. After all, "No man knows the hour or the day, not even the Son. Only the Father knows."
I guess the 20th december 2012 is the day to buy stuff CHEAP !
Unless you order online, remember to leaving shipping time. Oh what the hec go on and chose express mail.
Is it just me or is this article just a mish-mash of studies thrown together to support the author's opinion? For example it starts by talking about an unseen object that alters the path of comets or asteroids on a regular basis. A study came out saying that any dark companion to Earth wouldn't have a regular orbit, never did it say that a dark companion doesn't exist or that it wouldn't have an impact on life on Earth. Then the author pulls in the 2012 theory and Mayans, assuming that you can't believe in one without the other. Then he uses a study (which just used an altered form of statistics that gives a different answer, not necessarily the only correct answer!!) to say that: because craters aren't in a regular pattern, neither are extinctions? I don't see how the two would necessarily be related? So two studies and two reasonable facts: a dark companion to Earth wouldn't have a regular orbit and crater impacts on Earth do not appear to follow any cycle; lead to two unreasonable conclusions: there is no dark companion to Earth and there are no extinction cycles on Earth. Am I missing something?
It seemes to me that if you wanted to you could plot all the possible sizes and distances of an orbiting nemesis "star" (which would have to be at least significantly larger than Jupiter) using the law of gravitation. This star or brown dwarf would either orbit the sun or orbit a center of mass somewhere out in or beyond the solar system. There would be a point where orbiting wouldn't be possible for a large enough body to disturb the Oort region too.
I would think that such a body would be visible with our telescopes in that case also.
ok the debunker guy got a lot of the historical timelines wrong, and, im sorry, clearly knows very little about the "nemisis" so he has turned it into a big joke.
if you could open your mind for a moment and just imagine that perhaps an anomaly is out there...behind the sun. think of our solar system as a binary system and the lesser "sun" with its own entourage of orbiting satellites makes a huge eliptical orbit taking 3600 years to complete. the brown dwarf "lesser sun" discharges its own CME's as it does battle with the magnetic forces of all the other planets it passes during its shar (orbit around our sun).... think of it as a huge whirling dervish of iron oxide dust, debris and asteroids... like a big, glowing, red, spherical tornado. this large trail of debris enveloping it morphs with the magnetic fields giving it the appearance of a red ball with wings or horns. this is the image that virtually all the ancient cultures have stories of. it may resemble a red dragon (orient) it may resemble a winged disc (egypt and mesopotamia) or it may be the hades or hell that the christians speak of. i dont know, personally, from my studies, i find it a whole lot more believable than the bible of today. im not bible bashing necessarily, but the bible has been interpreted too many times and has lost its validity. ancient scripts of tribes around the world, however, all seem to echo a similar story, so this is the story i will place my faith. call me what you will.
bright blessings,
amethyst
Could amethyst provide some details on the historical timelines referred to, please?
sorry hal i am new to this blogging stuff... i answered your question on the main part of the blog... at least, i hope i did! hehe bright blessings
And the new budget bill is supposed to only be good till the end of 2012. I wonder if they know something about this.
You're right.. Coincidence? Hmmm
Using statistics to disprove an effect of a theory based on earlier statistics doesn't disprove the actual basis behind the theory, only the currently assumed effect from it. We have no idea at the moment whether there is a stellar companion to our star.
I don't see how it can be assumed that because the frequency of impacts might not be as regular as first assumed this somehow proves there's no Nemesis star. Am I missing something here? Could it be that not all the comets disturbed are landing on Earth? How many go into the Sun? How many have been absorbed by Jupiter? Same for Saturn? It just seems they're making as big a leap in logic with this assumption as the previous theory they've claimed to debunk. I would think that with our current understanding of stellar evolution and the number of binary and trinary systems out there, along with the assumed enormous amount of red or brown dwarf stars we haven't catalogued yet it's entirely plausible to theorize that our star has a stellar companion. If not a star then possibly an ice giant. Something is causing these comets to spiral into towards the sun and I don't think it's just our movement through the galaxy or interactions with our true stellar neighbors. Maybe I have my Nemesis blinders on though, who knows.
the calendar more than likely ran out of space on the rock, or it is just an end of meassurement to a cycle.
But if it is the end I would think it would be due to a new location wihin our own galazy that possibly doesn't contain the constant signal we require for existance. A signal or energy that has always been there so how would you measure something that you don't realize exists.
Einstein said
I like to think about color it isn't the color you see but the reflected light is it really blue?
I may lack the proper terminology, but not the concept.
If the human race does cease to exist, I can just hear the planet Earth sigh "Thank God" :)